Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Napoli v Bodø/Glimt

2026-10-20 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Napoli (Local)

Predicción 60.18%1.66momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.792%
Kelly -2.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.91%60.11%60.24%61.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.491.541.541.6467.11%65.12%64.94%60.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bodø/Glimt (Visitante)

Predicción 18.41%5.43momio equitativo
EV +1.28%
Ventaja +0.232%
Kelly +0.284%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.14%18.42%18.39%20.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.505.105.185.5022.22%19.62%19.31%18.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.40%4.67momio equitativo
EV +1.66%
Ventaja +0.350%
Kelly +0.443%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.39%21.47%21.38%22.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.274.204.7525.00%23.45%23.81%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Napoli (Local): 60.18%; Bodø/Glimt (Visitante): 18.41%; Empate: 21.40%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.67. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.75, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.66%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.92%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.56%EV -3.33%E -0.634%K -0.783%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.52%EV +1.66%E +0.350%K +0.443%G +0.007%2.6%2026-10-14 22:10
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.96%EV -1.30%E -0.792%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.18I 19.31%NM 18.98%EV -4.62%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 21.06%EV -0.052%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000%1.7%2026-10-14 22:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.26%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV -1.55%E -0.337%K -0.431%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 23:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.26%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV -1.55%E -0.337%K -0.431%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 23:05
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.88%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.98%EV -1.49%E -0.278%K -0.342%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.14%EV -2.62%E -0.576%K -0.738%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-14 23:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.93%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.99%EV -7.01%E -1.39%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.08%EV -2.62%E -0.576%K -0.738%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-14 22:14
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.34%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 18.80%EV -7.19%E -1.43%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.87%EV -2.83%E -0.624%K -0.801%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-14 23:15
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.94%EV -6.11%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.94%EV -2.41%E -0.454%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 21:55
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.09%EV -6.71%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.87%EV -2.41%E -0.454%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.04%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-14 23:40
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-14 21:55
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -6.71%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -17.14%E -3.81%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-14 23:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.13%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.27%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 23:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.70%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.44%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-14 22:10
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.11%EV -7.92%E -5.18%K -14.94%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.41%E -0.454%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-14 22:10
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -6.71%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-14 23:40
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.93%EV -6.71%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.96%EV -9.77%E -1.99%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-14 23:39
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.47%EV -7.92%E -5.18%K -14.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-14 22:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.85%EV -7.32%E -4.75%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -11.61%E -2.42%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-14 23:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.85%EV -7.32%E -4.75%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -11.61%E -2.42%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-14 23:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.01%EV -6.71%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 23:39
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -6.71%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.46%EV -7.33%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-14 22:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.79%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -3.33%E -0.634%K -0.783%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -7.97%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 22:39
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.56%EV -6.11%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -9.04%E -2.13%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-14 21:55
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.42%EV -6.11%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV +1.28%E +0.232%K +0.284%G +0.004%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 00:46
picklebet_au🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -6.71%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-14 23:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.92%EV -8.52%E -5.61%K -16.39%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.40%EV -8.85%E -1.79%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-14 23:38
ReBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.33%EV -7.92%E -5.18%K -14.94%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.53%EV -9.77%E -1.99%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-14 23:39
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:35
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:35
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:35
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:34
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:35
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:39
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -10.33%E -6.93%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -4.25%E -0.817%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-14 23:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.65%EV -9.12%E -6.04%K -17.89%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -9.77%E -1.99%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 23:39
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -6.71%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-14 22:25
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -6.71%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-14 23:45
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.92%E -5.18%K -14.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-14 22:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.92%E -5.18%K -14.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-14 22:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.92%E -5.18%K -14.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -7.93%E -1.59%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-14 22:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -9.72%E -6.48%K -19.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -3.33%E -0.634%K -0.783%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 00:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.25%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.03%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.72%2.7%2026-10-15 00:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.25%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.03%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.72%2.7%2026-10-15 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.25%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.03%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.72%2.7%2026-10-15 00:00
Matchbook◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.04%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.31%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.65%3.0%2026-10-15 01:20
Smarkets◎1.59I 62.89%NM 60.77%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.23%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.00%3.5%2026-10-15 01:00