Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester United v Sabah FK

Kickoff: 2026-09-10 19:00 UTC

Final: Manchester United 4–0 Sabah FK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester United (Local)

Prediction 85.41%1.17fair odd
EV -0.928%
Edge -0.800%
Kelly -5.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.02%85.43%85.36%87.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.111.111.1693.46%90.21%90.09%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sabah FK (Visit)

Prediction 4.31%23.22fair odd
EV +24.91%
Edge +0.859%
Kelly +0.890%
Growth +0.222%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.41%4.30%4.24%5.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
16.0021.3321.0029.006.25%4.69%4.76%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.29%9.72fair odd
EV +18.29%
Edge +1.59%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.319%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.23%10.27%10.40%12.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.109.509.5011.5014.08%10.52%10.53%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manchester United (Local): 85.41%; Sabah FK (Visit): 4.31%; Draw: 10.29%. For Sabah FK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.22. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 87.25%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.50%EV +18.29%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.319%2.3%2026-09-09 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 87.25%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.50%EV +18.29%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.319%2.3%2026-09-09 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 87.25%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.50%EV +18.29%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.319%2.3%2026-09-09 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 87.25%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.50%EV +18.29%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.319%2.3%2026-09-09 13:45
Bet Victor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.65%EV -7.76%E -7.19%K -97.01%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV +18.29%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.319%5.6%2026-09-09 15:04
BetRivers🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.12%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.78%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.10%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%4.6%2026-09-09 13:45
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.12%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.78%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.10%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%4.6%2026-09-09 13:45
Bally Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.12%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.78%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.10%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%4.6%2026-09-09 13:45
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%5.2%2026-09-09 08:44
FanDuel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%5.2%2026-09-09 08:45
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.22%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.74%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%5.4%2026-09-09 13:45
Coolbet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 86.47%EV -3.49%E -3.09%K -26.85%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.76%EV +11.99%E +0.461%K +0.479%G +0.057%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.77%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%2.3%2026-09-08 20:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.92%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.54%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%4.9%2026-09-09 16:21
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.03%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.51%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%5.7%2026-09-09 08:44
theScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -18.16%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.2%2026-09-09 05:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -18.16%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.2%2026-09-09 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -18.16%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.2%2026-09-09 13:45
betPARX🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.39%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -22.47%E -1.25%K -1.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.5%2026-09-09 13:45
TAB🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.14%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.5%2026-09-09 16:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.13%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV -26.78%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.8%2026-09-09 16:06
LiveScore Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.50%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -22.47%E -1.25%K -1.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%7.3%2026-09-09 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.50%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -22.47%E -1.25%K -1.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%7.3%2026-09-09 13:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.58%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.90%EV -1.25%E -0.130%K -0.146%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 16:05
betfred_uk🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.49%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:11
Betr (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.73%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 17:11
BoyleSports🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.94%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.11%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 07:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.20%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -18.16%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 05:04
Sky Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.83%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV -26.78%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 08:44
TABtouch🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.83%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV -26.78%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 13:46
1xBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 85.91%EV -1.78%E -1.55%K -11.88%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.41%EV +24.91%E +0.859%K +0.890%G +0.222%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.68%EV -4.85%E -0.525%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.2%2026-09-09 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.90%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +11.99%E +0.461%K +0.479%G +0.057%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.40%EV -4.85%E -0.525%K -0.588%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-07 09:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.90%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +11.99%E +0.461%K +0.479%G +0.057%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.40%EV -4.85%E -0.525%K -0.588%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-07 09:30
Fliff🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.37%EV -8.61%E -8.05%K -123.07%G +0.000%19.45I 5.14%NM 4.70%EV -16.23%E -0.834%K -0.879%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.93%EV -5.37%E -0.583%K -0.654%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 16:46
GTbets🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.68%EV -0.928%E -0.800%K -5.80%G +0.000%21.76I 4.60%NM 4.51%EV -6.28%E -0.288%K -0.302%G +0.000%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.81%EV -6.50%E -0.715%K -0.803%G +0.000%1.8%2026-09-09 07:19
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.24%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.15%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 13:40
Betway🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.39%EV -3.49%E -3.09%K -26.85%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.02%EV -18.16%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.60%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 12:11
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.57%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 13:45
Fanatics🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-08 19:30
Caesars🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.47%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 19:04
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -22.47%E -1.25%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 17:11
LeoVegas🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV -26.78%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:00
Casumo🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.33%EV -8.61%E -8.05%K -123.07%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.64%EV -31.09%E -1.94%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.03%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 13:45
BetAnything🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.23%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.25I 4.30%NM 4.11%EV +0.142%E +0.006%K +0.006%G +0.000%8.95I 11.17%NM 10.67%EV -7.94%E -0.887%K -0.998%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 16:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.67%EV -3.49%E -3.09%K -26.85%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.46%EV +20.60%E +0.736%K +0.763%G +0.157%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.88%EV -8.45%E -0.950%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-09 16:46
ReBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.22%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.01%EV -20.32%E -1.10%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.77%EV -11.54%E -1.34%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 16:05
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.71%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 09:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.71%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.71%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 09:05
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.71%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 09:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.67%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -5.24%E -0.238%K -0.250%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 05:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.31%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:49
BetUS🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.94%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.52%EV +16.29%E +0.603%K +0.627%G +0.102%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.53%EV -15.14%E -1.83%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 13:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.23%EV -5.24%E -0.238%K -0.250%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.27%EV -15.14%E -1.83%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 09:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.73%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -17.71%E -2.21%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 16:05
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.43%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%26.25I 3.81%NM 3.60%EV +13.06%E +0.498%K +0.517%G +0.068%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.97%EV -18.74%E -2.37%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 15:46
Suprabets🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.01%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.98%EV -26.97%E -3.80%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-08 18:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 87.83%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.54%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63%0.8%2026-09-09 13:31
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.13I 88.50%NM 87.83%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.54%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63%0.8%2026-09-09 13:31
Matchbook1.13I 88.50%NM 87.83%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.54%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63%0.8%2026-09-09 13:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.13I 88.50%NM 87.71%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.62%0.9%2026-09-09 17:40
Smarkets1.13I 88.50%NM 87.71%27.03I 3.70%NM 3.67%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.63%0.9%2026-09-09 13:31