Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Manchester United v Sabah FK

Inicio: 2026-09-10 19:00 UTC

Final: Manchester United 4–0 Sabah FK

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Manchester United (Local)

Predicción 85.41%1.17momio equitativo
EV -0.928%
Ventaja -0.800%
Kelly -5.80%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
83.02%85.43%85.36%87.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.071.111.111.1693.46%90.21%90.09%86.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sabah FK (Visitante)

Predicción 4.31%23.22momio equitativo
EV +24.91%
Ventaja +0.859%
Kelly +0.890%
Crecimiento +0.222%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 29.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
3.41%4.30%4.24%5.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
16.0021.3321.0029.006.25%4.69%4.76%3.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 10.29%9.72momio equitativo
EV +18.29%
Ventaja +1.59%
Kelly +1.74%
Crecimiento +0.319%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.23%10.27%10.40%12.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.109.509.5011.5014.08%10.52%10.53%8.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Manchester United (Local): 85.41%; Sabah FK (Visitante): 4.31%; Empate: 10.29%. Para Sabah FK (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 23.22. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 29.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +24.91%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 87.25%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.50%EV +18.29%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.319%2.3%2026-09-09 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 87.25%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.50%EV +18.29%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.319%2.3%2026-09-09 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 87.25%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.50%EV +18.29%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.319%2.3%2026-09-09 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 87.25%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.50%EV +18.29%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.319%2.3%2026-09-09 13:45
Bet Victor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.65%EV -7.76%E -7.19%K -97.01%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV +18.29%E +1.59%K +1.74%G +0.319%5.6%2026-09-09 15:04
BetRivers🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.12%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.78%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.10%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%4.6%2026-09-09 13:45
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.12%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.78%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.10%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%4.6%2026-09-09 13:45
Bally Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.12%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.78%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.10%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%4.6%2026-09-09 13:45
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%5.2%2026-09-09 08:44
FanDuel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%5.2%2026-09-09 08:45
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.22%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.74%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +8.01%E +0.762%K +0.843%G +0.067%5.4%2026-09-09 13:45
Coolbet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 86.47%EV -3.49%E -3.09%K -26.85%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.76%EV +11.99%E +0.461%K +0.479%G +0.057%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.77%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%2.3%2026-09-08 20:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.92%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.54%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%4.9%2026-09-09 16:21
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.03%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.51%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%5.7%2026-09-09 08:44
theScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -18.16%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.2%2026-09-09 05:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -18.16%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.2%2026-09-09 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -18.16%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.2%2026-09-09 13:45
betPARX🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.39%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -22.47%E -1.25%K -1.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.5%2026-09-09 13:45
TAB🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.14%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.5%2026-09-09 16:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.13%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV -26.78%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%6.8%2026-09-09 16:06
LiveScore Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.50%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -22.47%E -1.25%K -1.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%7.3%2026-09-09 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.50%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -22.47%E -1.25%K -1.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +2.86%E +0.286%K +0.318%G +0.009%7.3%2026-09-09 13:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.58%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.90%EV -1.25%E -0.130%K -0.146%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 16:05
betfred_uk🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.49%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:11
Betr (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.73%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 17:11
BoyleSports🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.94%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.11%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 07:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.20%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -18.16%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 05:04
Sky Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.83%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV -26.78%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 08:44
TABtouch🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.83%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV -26.78%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -2.28%E -0.240%K -0.268%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 13:46
1xBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 85.91%EV -1.78%E -1.55%K -11.88%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.41%EV +24.91%E +0.859%K +0.890%G +0.222%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.68%EV -4.85%E -0.525%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.2%2026-09-09 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.90%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +11.99%E +0.461%K +0.479%G +0.057%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.40%EV -4.85%E -0.525%K -0.588%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-07 09:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.90%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +11.99%E +0.461%K +0.479%G +0.057%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.40%EV -4.85%E -0.525%K -0.588%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-07 09:30
Fliff🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.37%EV -8.61%E -8.05%K -123.07%G +0.000%19.45I 5.14%NM 4.70%EV -16.23%E -0.834%K -0.879%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.93%EV -5.37%E -0.583%K -0.654%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 16:46
GTbets🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.68%EV -0.928%E -0.800%K -5.80%G +0.000%21.76I 4.60%NM 4.51%EV -6.28%E -0.288%K -0.302%G +0.000%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.81%EV -6.50%E -0.715%K -0.803%G +0.000%1.8%2026-09-09 07:19
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.24%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.15%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 13:40
Betway🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.39%EV -3.49%E -3.09%K -26.85%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.02%EV -18.16%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.60%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 12:11
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.57%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 13:45
Fanatics🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV -9.55%E -0.455%K -0.477%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-08 19:30
Caesars🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.47%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 19:04
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -22.47%E -1.25%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 17:11
LeoVegas🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.74%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV -26.78%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:00
Casumo🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.33%EV -8.61%E -8.05%K -123.07%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.64%EV -31.09%E -1.94%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.03%EV -7.42%E -0.825%K -0.928%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 13:45
BetAnything🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.23%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.25I 4.30%NM 4.11%EV +0.142%E +0.006%K +0.006%G +0.000%8.95I 11.17%NM 10.67%EV -7.94%E -0.887%K -0.998%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 16:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.67%EV -3.49%E -3.09%K -26.85%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.46%EV +20.60%E +0.736%K +0.763%G +0.157%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.88%EV -8.45%E -0.950%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-09 16:46
ReBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.22%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.01%EV -20.32%E -1.10%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.77%EV -11.54%E -1.34%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 16:05
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.71%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 09:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.71%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.71%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 09:05
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.71%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 09:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.67%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -5.24%E -0.238%K -0.250%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 05:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.31%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -12.57%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:49
BetUS🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.94%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.52%EV +16.29%E +0.603%K +0.627%G +0.102%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.53%EV -15.14%E -1.83%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 13:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.53%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.23%EV -5.24%E -0.238%K -0.250%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.27%EV -15.14%E -1.83%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 09:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.73%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV -13.86%E -0.693%K -0.729%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -17.71%E -2.21%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 16:05
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.43%EV -4.34%E -3.88%K -36.21%G +0.000%26.25I 3.81%NM 3.60%EV +13.06%E +0.498%K +0.517%G +0.068%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.97%EV -18.74%E -2.37%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 15:46
Suprabets🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.26%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.01%EV -0.935%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.98%EV -26.97%E -3.80%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-08 18:51
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.83%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.54%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63%0.8%2026-09-09 13:31
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.83%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.54%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63%0.8%2026-09-09 13:31
Matchbook◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.83%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.54%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63%0.8%2026-09-09 13:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.71%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.62%0.9%2026-09-09 17:40
Smarkets◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.71%27.03I 3.70%NM 3.67%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.63%0.9%2026-09-09 13:31