The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Manchester City v Napoli

2026-11-24 20:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester City (Local)

Prediction 75.95%1.32fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -13.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.71%75.88%75.92%78.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.231.231.2786.96%81.26%81.30%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Napoli (Visit)

Prediction 9.12%10.97fair odd
EV +9.40%
Edge +0.783%
Kelly +0.854%
Growth +0.080%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.00%9.23%9.22%11.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.4210.5012.0012.50%9.59%9.52%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.94%6.69fair odd
EV +3.06%
Edge +0.444%
Kelly +0.519%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 6.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.65%14.89%14.86%15.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.276.256.9017.86%15.95%16.00%14.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Manchester City (Local): 75.95%; Napoli (Visit): 9.12%; Draw: 14.94%. For Napoli (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.97. 16 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 12.00, producing a positive expected value of +9.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 77.30%EV -3.55%E -2.79%K -13.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.18%EV +9.40%E +0.783%K +0.854%G +0.080%6.76I 14.79%NM 14.52%EV +0.971%E +0.144%K +0.169%G +0.002%1.9%2026-11-05 07:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 77.28%EV -3.55%E -2.79%K -13.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.18%EV +9.40%E +0.783%K +0.854%G +0.080%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.54%EV +0.822%E +0.122%K +0.143%G +0.001%1.9%2026-11-05 09:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 77.28%EV -3.55%E -2.79%K -13.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.18%EV +9.40%E +0.783%K +0.854%G +0.080%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.54%EV +0.822%E +0.122%K +0.143%G +0.001%1.9%2026-11-05 09:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.99%EV -4.31%E -3.42%K -16.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.08%EV +9.40%E +0.783%K +0.854%G +0.080%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.92%EV -2.91%E -0.448%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-05 09:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.99%EV -4.31%E -3.42%K -16.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.08%EV +9.40%E +0.783%K +0.854%G +0.080%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.92%EV -2.91%E -0.448%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-05 09:39
Coolbet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.70%EV -5.83%E -4.70%K -24.27%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.03%EV +9.40%E +0.783%K +0.854%G +0.080%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.27%EV +0.822%E +0.122%K +0.143%G +0.001%3.8%2026-11-05 12:38
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.08%EV -6.58%E -5.35%K -28.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.00%EV +9.40%E +0.783%K +0.854%G +0.080%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.92%EV +3.06%E +0.444%K +0.519%G +0.016%4.1%2026-11-05 07:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.78%EV -5.07%E -4.05%K -20.26%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.35%EV +4.84%E +0.421%K +0.461%G +0.022%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.88%EV -3.66%E -0.567%K -0.671%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-05 07:50
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.79%EV -7.34%E -6.02%K -33.38%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV +4.84%E +0.421%K +0.461%G +0.022%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.96%EV +1.57%E +0.231%K +0.270%G +0.004%5.4%2026-11-05 07:50
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -5.07%E -4.05%K -20.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +0.279%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -6.65%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-05 09:40
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -5.07%E -4.05%K -20.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +0.279%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -6.65%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-05 09:40
Bally Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -5.07%E -4.05%K -20.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +0.279%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -6.65%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-05 09:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -5.07%E -4.05%K -20.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +0.279%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -6.65%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-05 09:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.86%EV -6.58%E -5.35%K -28.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV +0.279%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -2.91%E -0.448%K -0.530%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-05 10:45
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -7.34%E -6.02%K -33.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +0.279%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -2.91%E -0.448%K -0.530%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-05 09:30
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.34%E -6.02%K -33.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +0.279%E +0.025%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -10.38%E -1.73%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-05 11:54
GTbets🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.61%EV -4.31%E -3.42%K -16.56%G +0.000%10.59I 9.44%NM 9.00%EV -3.46%E -0.327%K -0.361%G +0.000%6.19I 16.16%NM 15.39%EV -7.54%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-05 09:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -5.83%E -4.70%K -24.27%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.94%EV -4.28%E -0.408%K -0.450%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -8.89%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-05 09:40
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -5.83%E -4.70%K -24.27%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.94%EV -4.28%E -0.408%K -0.450%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -8.89%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-05 09:39
betPARX🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -6.58%E -5.35%K -28.63%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.28%E -0.408%K -0.450%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -8.89%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-05 09:40
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.58%EV -6.58%E -5.35%K -28.63%G +0.000%10.23I 9.78%NM 9.21%EV -6.74%E -0.659%K -0.730%G +0.000%6.63I 15.08%NM 14.21%EV -0.971%E -0.146%K -0.172%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-05 07:50
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.06%EV -5.83%E -4.70%K -24.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -8.84%E -0.884%K -0.982%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -2.91%E -0.448%K -0.530%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-05 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.58%E -5.35%K -28.63%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -8.84%E -0.884%K -0.982%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -10.38%E -1.73%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-05 09:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.58%E -5.35%K -28.63%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -8.84%E -0.884%K -0.982%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -10.38%E -1.73%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-05 09:40
TABtouch🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.34%E -6.02%K -33.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -8.84%E -0.884%K -0.982%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.38%E -1.73%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-05 09:39
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.78%EV -5.83%E -4.70%K -24.27%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -13.40%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -10.38%E -1.73%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-05 11:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.94%EV -6.58%E -5.35%K -28.63%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -13.40%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -10.38%E -1.73%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-05 09:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.91%EV -8.86%E -7.39%K -44.32%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -13.40%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.63%EV -14.11%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-05 09:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 75.83%EV -11.90%E -10.26%K -74.38%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.26%EV -13.40%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.91%EV -11.87%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-05 09:39
ReBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.33%EV -7.34%E -6.02%K -33.38%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.30%EV -19.78%E -2.25%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.37%EV -11.87%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-05 09:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.51%EV -7.34%E -6.02%K -33.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -22.51%E -2.65%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV +0.822%E +0.122%K +0.143%G +0.001%8.5%2026-11-05 10:55
LeoVegas🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.40%EV -8.10%E -6.70%K -38.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -22.51%E -2.65%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -10.38%E -1.73%K -2.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-05 09:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 74.99%EV -12.66%E -11.01%K -84.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.15%EV -22.51%E -2.65%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 14.87%EV -13.37%E -2.30%K -2.78%G +0.000%16.0%2026-11-05 09:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 73.71%EV -9.62%E -8.09%K -50.65%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.63%EV -24.79%E -3.00%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.66%EV -16.36%E -2.92%K -3.56%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-05 09:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.23%EV -9.62%E -8.09%K -50.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.04%EV -27.07%E -3.38%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.72%EV -10.38%E -1.73%K -2.08%G +0.000%13.2%2026-11-05 10:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.19I 84.03%NM 72.41%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.34%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.26%16.1%2026-11-05 09:30