Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lille v Galatasaray

2026-10-21 16:45 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lille (Local)

Predicción 44.04%2.27momio equitativo
EV -1.34%
Ventaja -0.599%
Kelly -1.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.24

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.22%44.07%44.03%44.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.102.102.2448.78%47.57%47.62%44.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Galatasaray (Visitante)

Predicción 29.54%3.39momio equitativo
EV -1.05%
Ventaja -0.315%
Kelly -0.449%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.45%29.52%29.49%30.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.133.103.3533.33%31.92%32.26%29.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.42%3.78momio equitativo
EV -0.923%
Ventaja -0.246%
Kelly -0.336%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.79%26.41%26.48%27.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.353.483.453.7529.85%28.73%28.99%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Lille (Local): 44.04%; Galatasaray (Visitante): 29.54%; Empate: 26.42%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.78. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 3.75, con un valor esperado de -0.923%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.97%EV -1.34%E -0.599%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.76%EV -2.24%E -0.676%K -0.968%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.27%EV -0.923%E -0.246%K -0.336%G +0.000%1.5%2026-10-14 23:29
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.66%EV -3.10%E -1.41%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.32%EV -3.57%E -0.977%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 23:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.97%EV -3.98%E -1.83%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.77%EV -4.89%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -3.57%E -0.977%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-14 23:25
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.98%E -1.83%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.12%EV -6.96%E -2.21%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-14 23:44
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.72%EV -4.43%E -2.04%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.41%EV -2.53%E -0.767%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -0.923%E -0.246%K -0.336%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-14 23:39
GTbets🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.92%EV -4.43%E -2.04%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.45%EV -1.05%E -0.315%K -0.449%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -8.85%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-14 22:20
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.84%EV -4.43%E -2.04%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.10%EV -6.67%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.06%EV -3.57%E -0.977%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 23:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.16%EV -4.87%E -2.25%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.01%E -1.23%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 22:19
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.39%EV -5.31%E -2.47%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -2.24%E -0.607%K -0.831%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 23:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.31%E -2.47%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-14 23:39
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.31%E -2.47%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-14 23:40
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -5.31%E -2.47%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-14 23:43
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -5.31%E -2.47%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-14 22:35
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.31%E -2.47%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -11.39%E -3.80%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-14 23:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -2.53%E -0.767%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-14 23:39
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-14 23:40
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-14 23:38
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-14 22:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-14 22:20
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-14 23:39
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-14 22:55
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-14 23:53
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-14 22:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-14 22:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-14 22:29
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.49%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-14 22:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.74%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.85%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-14 23:37
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.51%E -3.58%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-14 22:20
ReBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.81%EV -8.39%E -4.03%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.39%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-14 22:20
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:35
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:35
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:35
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:34
betPARX🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:35
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:39
Bally Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.27%E -4.50%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.92%E -3.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-14 23:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -9.71%E -4.74%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-14 23:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -9.71%E -4.74%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-14 23:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.35%EV -9.71%E -4.74%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.14%EV -7.85%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.51%EV -9.38%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-14 22:17
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.71%E -4.74%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 22:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.71%E -4.74%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.44%E -2.72%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-15 00:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 43.61%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.93%4.2%2026-10-15 00:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 43.61%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.93%4.2%2026-10-15 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 43.61%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.93%4.2%2026-10-15 00:15
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 43.70%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%6.0%2026-10-15 00:15
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%8.5%2026-10-14 22:20