The School of Odds
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Barcelona v Atlético Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 58.53%1.71fair odd
EV -0.507%
Edge -0.298%
Kelly -0.724%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.87%58.54%58.57%60.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.591.581.7066.67%62.86%63.29%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 19.55%5.11fair odd
EV +7.53%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.67%
Growth +0.126%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.06%19.50%19.52%20.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.744.705.5023.26%21.10%21.28%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.92%4.56fair odd
EV +10.71%
Edge +2.12%
Kelly +2.64%
Growth +0.283%

assuming max odds 5.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.82%21.96%21.91%26.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.334.335.0527.78%23.09%23.09%19.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 58.53%; Atlético Madrid (Visit): 19.55%; Draw: 21.92%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.56. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.53%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.82%EV +10.71%E +2.12%K +2.64%G +0.283%5.2%2026-03-19 05:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.53%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.82%EV +10.71%E +2.12%K +2.64%G +0.283%5.2%2026-03-19 05:35
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -6.36%E -3.97%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.96%EV -5.17%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.55%EV +8.52%E +1.72%K +2.16%G +0.184%3.3%2026-03-19 10:59
Suprabets🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.61%EV -9.87%E -6.41%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -13.97%E -3.18%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV +3.04%E +0.646%K +0.821%G +0.025%8.9%2026-03-19 07:31
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.88%EV -6.94%E -4.37%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.43%EV -4.20%E -0.856%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV +0.845%E +0.184%K +0.235%G +0.002%5.0%2026-03-19 10:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.86%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.83%EV +0.691%E +0.134%K +0.167%G +0.001%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.31%EV -0.251%E -0.055%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-19 01:35
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 10:09
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 10:10
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 10:10
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.16%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 15:29
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.16%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 15:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.16%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.16%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 15:29
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 12:30
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.97%EV -0.507%E -0.298%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.99%EV -3.61%E -0.732%K -0.919%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 22.05%EV -2.00%E -0.448%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.5%2026-03-19 00:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.61%EV -9.87%E -6.41%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -8.11%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -3.54%E -0.804%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-19 10:09
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.30%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -5.07%E -1.17%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-19 07:45
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.57%EV -5.77%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -6.15%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -5.07%E -1.17%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 08:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.08%EV -5.77%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -5.07%E -1.17%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 07:45
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.21%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.85%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -5.73%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 00:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.19%EV -7.53%E -4.77%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -5.73%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-19 00:10
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.69%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.83%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.69%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.83%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 07:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.98%EV -9.87%E -6.41%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -15.93%E -3.70%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -7.92%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-19 00:10
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.48%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.10%EV +4.21%E +0.790%K +0.972%G +0.041%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.42%EV -9.68%E -2.35%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-19 06:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.72%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -2.24%E -0.448%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -10.12%E -2.47%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -2.24%E -0.448%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -12.31%E -3.08%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-19 00:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.54%EV -11.04%E -7.26%K -21.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.93%EV -8.11%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.53%EV -13.40%E -3.39%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-19 07:11
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.93%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.42%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -14.50%E -3.72%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-19 00:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.11%EV -6.94%E -4.37%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 23.77%EV -16.25%E -4.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-19 00:23
Betclic (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.32%EV -8.70%E -5.58%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.03%EV -8.11%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.66%EV -17.13%E -4.53%K -6.16%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-19 00:08
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV +7.53%E +1.37%K +1.67%G +0.126%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -21.08%E -5.85%K -8.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-18 22:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -12.21%E -8.14%K -24.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -21.08%E -5.85%K -8.11%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-19 03:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 62.30%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%10.7%2026-03-19 11:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 62.30%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%10.7%2026-03-19 10:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 62.30%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%10.7%2026-03-19 11:00
Smarkets◎1.07I 93.46%NM 68.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 15.00%4.50I 22.22%NM 16.33%36.1%2026-03-19 11:29