L’École des cotes

Barcelona v Atlético Madrid

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-07 18:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

33 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Barcelona (Local)

Prévision 58.53%1.71cote équitable
EV -0.507%
Avantage -0.298%
Kelly -0.724%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
56.87%58.54%58.57%60.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.501.591.581.7066.67%62.86%63.29%58.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Atlético Madrid (Visiteur)

Prévision 19.55%5.11cote équitable
EV +7.53%
Avantage +1.37%
Kelly +1.67%
Croissance +0.126%

avec la cote maximale 5.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.06%19.50%19.52%20.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.304.744.705.5023.26%21.10%21.28%18.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 21.92%4.56cote équitable
EV +10.71%
Avantage +2.12%
Kelly +2.64%
Croissance +0.283%

avec la cote maximale 5.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.82%21.96%21.91%26.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.604.334.335.0527.78%23.09%23.09%19.80%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (33 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
LowVig.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 60.53%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.82%EV +10.71%E +2.12%K +2.64%G +0.283%5.2%2026-03-19 05:35
BetOnline.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 60.53%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.82%EV +10.71%E +2.12%K +2.64%G +0.283%5.2%2026-03-19 05:35
Coolbet1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -6.36%E -3.97%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.96%EV -5.17%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.55%EV +8.52%E +1.72%K +2.16%G +0.184%3.3%2026-03-19 10:59
Suprabets1.54I 64.94%NM 59.61%EV -9.87%E -6.41%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -13.97%E -3.18%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV +3.04%E +0.646%K +0.821%G +0.025%8.9%2026-03-19 07:31
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 59.88%EV -6.94%E -4.37%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.43%EV -4.20%E -0.856%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV +0.845%E +0.184%K +0.235%G +0.002%5.0%2026-03-19 10:10
Marathon Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.86%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.83%EV +0.691%E +0.134%K +0.167%G +0.001%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.31%EV -0.251%E -0.055%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-19 01:35
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 10:09
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 10:10
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 10:10
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 59.16%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 15:29
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 59.16%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 15:29
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.16%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 15:30
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.16%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 15:29
Betway1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.12%E -5.17%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -1.35%E -0.299%K -0.385%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 12:30
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 57.97%EV -0.507%E -0.298%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.99%EV -3.61%E -0.732%K -0.919%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 22.05%EV -2.00%E -0.448%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.5%2026-03-19 00:20
PMU (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 59.61%EV -9.87%E -6.41%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -8.11%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -3.54%E -0.804%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-19 10:09
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 58.30%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -5.07%E -1.17%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-19 07:45
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 58.57%EV -5.77%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -6.15%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -5.07%E -1.17%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 08:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.08%EV -5.77%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -5.07%E -1.17%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 07:45
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 58.21%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.85%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -5.73%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 00:05
Winamax (DE)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.19%EV -7.53%E -4.77%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -5.73%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-19 00:10
Neds1.62I 61.73%NM 57.69%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.83%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.69%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.83%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 07:45
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 57.98%EV -9.87%E -6.41%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -15.93%E -3.70%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -7.92%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-19 00:10
GTbets1.65I 60.61%NM 58.48%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.10%EV +4.21%E +0.790%K +0.972%G +0.041%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.42%EV -9.68%E -2.35%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-19 06:54
Codere (IT)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.72%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -2.24%E -0.448%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -10.12%E -2.47%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 00:10
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -2.24%E -0.448%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -12.31%E -3.08%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-19 00:10
NetBet (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 58.54%EV -11.04%E -7.26%K -21.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.93%EV -8.11%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.53%EV -13.40%E -3.39%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-19 07:11
theScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.93%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.42%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -14.50%E -3.72%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-19 00:10
Unibet (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 57.11%EV -6.94%E -4.37%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 23.77%EV -16.25%E -4.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-19 00:23
Betclic (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 57.32%EV -8.70%E -5.58%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.03%EV -8.11%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.66%EV -17.13%E -4.53%K -6.16%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-19 00:08
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV +7.53%E +1.37%K +1.67%G +0.126%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -21.08%E -5.85%K -8.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-18 22:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -12.21%E -8.14%K -24.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -21.08%E -5.85%K -8.11%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-19 03:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.30%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%10.7%2026-03-19 11:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.30%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%10.7%2026-03-19 10:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.30%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%10.7%2026-03-19 11:00
Smarkets1.07I 93.46%NM 68.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 15.00%4.50I 22.22%NM 16.33%36.1%2026-03-19 11:29