Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Goztepe v Alanyaspor

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Goztepe (Local)

Prediction 43.09%2.32fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.51%43.15%43.23%44.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.132.102.2551.28%47.04%47.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alanyaspor (Visit)

Prediction 26.43%3.78fair odd
EV +1.77%
Edge +0.460%
Kelly +0.621%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.02%26.34%26.34%27.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.513.533.8532.26%28.50%28.33%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.47%3.28fair odd
EV +0.559%
Edge +0.169%
Kelly +0.243%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.98%30.51%30.43%31.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.653.053.053.3037.74%32.75%32.79%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Goztepe (Local): 43.09%; Alanyaspor (Visit): 26.43%; Draw: 30.47%. For Alanyaspor (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.81%EV -4.76%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.15%EV +1.77%E +0.460%K +0.621%G +0.011%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.04%EV -4.93%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 16:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.25%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV +0.448%E +0.118%K +0.160%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.25%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV +0.448%E +0.118%K +0.160%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -2.19%E -0.593%K -0.813%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 16:44
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -7.35%E -3.42%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.19%E -0.593%K -0.813%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 16:54
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -7.35%E -3.42%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -2.19%E -0.593%K -0.813%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -11.63%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.35%E -3.42%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -3.52%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 16:50
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.14%EV -7.35%E -3.42%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -3.52%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 16:40
Bovada🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.49%EV -8.64%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -3.52%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.25%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 16:44
BetUS🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.49%EV -8.64%E -4.08%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -3.52%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.25%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 16:45
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.71%EV -4.33%E -1.95%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.88%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.41%EV +0.559%E +0.169%K +0.243%G +0.001%3.0%2026-03-14 16:55
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.84%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-14 16:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.84%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -0.965%E -0.297%K -0.429%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.84%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -0.965%E -0.297%K -0.429%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 16:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -4.84%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -12.24%E -4.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 16:55
GTbets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.88%EV -3.04%E -1.35%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.87%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.24%EV -2.79%E -0.876%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 16:25
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -10.36%E -4.98%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.16%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.49%E -0.778%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:25
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -10.36%E -4.98%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.16%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.49%E -0.778%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -10.36%E -4.98%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.16%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.49%E -0.778%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:20
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -10.36%E -4.98%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.16%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.49%E -0.778%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:20
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -10.36%E -4.98%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.16%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.49%E -0.778%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -10.36%E -4.98%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.16%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.49%E -0.778%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -10.36%E -4.98%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.16%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.49%E -0.778%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:20
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -10.36%E -4.98%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.16%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.49%E -0.778%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:20
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.84%EV -10.80%E -5.22%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -6.16%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -2.49%E -0.778%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-14 16:30
NordicBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.42%EV -7.78%E -3.64%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.32%EV -6.69%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.26%EV -6.45%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 16:45
Betsson🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.42%EV -7.78%E -3.64%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.32%EV -6.69%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.26%EV -6.45%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 16:45
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -3.04%E -1.35%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -7.48%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 16:20
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -7.48%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -2.49%E -0.778%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 16:50
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.48%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.48%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.48%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 16:55
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.35%E -3.42%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.48%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.63%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 16:20
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.48%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.68%E -5.24%K -8.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-14 16:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.27%EV -3.90%E -1.75%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -8.80%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -8.80%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -7.06%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 16:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -13.81%E -6.91%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -8.80%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-14 16:30
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -13.81%E -6.91%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -8.80%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-14 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -13.81%E -6.91%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -8.80%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-14 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.04%E -1.35%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -10.13%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 16:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -10.13%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 16:45
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.35%E -3.42%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.13%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -3.04%E -1.35%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -11.45%E -3.42%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -7.06%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 16:20
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -3.04%E -1.35%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -11.45%E -3.42%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -7.06%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 16:20
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -7.35%E -3.42%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -11.45%E -3.42%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -7.06%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 16:45
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.57%EV -11.66%E -5.69%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -11.45%E -3.42%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.35%E -3.42%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.77%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -12.77%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 16:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -12.77%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.40%EV -12.95%E -6.41%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.57%EV -12.77%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.03%EV -11.02%E -3.77%K -5.74%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 16:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 42.98%EV -15.97%E -8.19%K -16.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.40%EV -12.77%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.63%EV -19.25%E -7.26%K -11.67%G +0.000%19.3%2026-03-14 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.41%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -14.09%E -4.34%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.19%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-14 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -13.81%E -6.91%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -18.06%E -5.82%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -14.68%E -5.24%K -8.15%G +0.000%18.0%2026-03-14 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.46%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.46%0.9%2026-03-14 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.46%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.46%0.9%2026-03-14 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.46%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.46%0.9%2026-03-14 16:55
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.46%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.46%0.9%2026-03-14 16:55
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.17%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-03-14 16:45
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.32%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.10%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.58%2.1%2026-03-14 16:55