Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Galatasaray v Kocaelispor

Início: 2026-09-13 17:00 UTC

Final: Galatasaray 1–0 Kocaelispor

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

52 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Galatasaray (Local)

Previsão 74.10%1.35odd justa
EV -2.93%
Vantagem -2.23%
Kelly -9.44%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.31

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
72.07%74.03%74.06%75.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.211.261.251.3182.64%79.63%80.00%76.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kocaelispor (Visitante)

Previsão 9.19%10.88odd justa
EV +5.68%
Vantagem +0.494%
Kelly +0.541%
Crescimento +0.031%

pressupondo odds máximas de 11.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
8.08%9.19%9.29%11.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
8.009.9410.0011.5012.50%10.06%10.00%8.70%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 16.71%5.99odd justa
EV +0.244%
Vantagem +0.041%
Kelly +0.049%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
15.70%16.78%16.65%18.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.005.515.506.0020.00%18.16%18.18%16.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Galatasaray (Local): 74.10%; Kocaelispor (Visitante): 9.19%; Empate: 16.71%. Para Kocaelispor (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 10.88. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 11.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.68%.

Odds das casas de apostas (52 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.23%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV +5.68%E +0.494%K +0.541%G +0.031%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 16:45
Betsson🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.83%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%11.48I 8.71%NM 8.08%EV +5.50%E +0.479%K +0.525%G +0.029%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.09%EV -9.28%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.83%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%11.48I 8.71%NM 8.08%EV +5.50%E +0.479%K +0.525%G +0.029%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.09%EV -9.28%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 16:54
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%11.43I 8.75%NM 8.43%EV +5.04%E +0.441%K +0.483%G +0.024%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.28%EV -1.09%E -0.185%K -0.222%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-13 16:55
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.38%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%11.30I 8.85%NM 8.47%EV +3.85%E +0.340%K +0.373%G +0.014%5.93I 16.86%NM 16.14%EV -0.926%E -0.156%K -0.188%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-13 16:46
Coolbet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +1.09%E +0.099%K +0.109%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 16:36
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +1.09%E +0.099%K +0.109%G +0.001%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.27%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.68%EV -4.77%E -0.837%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 16:41
BetOnline.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.27%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.68%EV -4.77%E -0.837%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 16:41
DraftKings🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.53%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV +0.244%E +0.041%K +0.049%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:51
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.28%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 16:49
GTbets🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.05%EV -2.93%E -2.23%K -9.44%G +0.000%10.39I 9.62%NM 9.34%EV -4.52%E -0.435%K -0.481%G +0.000%5.84I 17.12%NM 16.61%EV -2.43%E -0.416%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-13 16:40
BetUS🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.93%EV -6.63%E -5.26%K -25.50%G +0.000%10.20I 9.80%NM 9.13%EV -6.26%E -0.614%K -0.681%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 16:36
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:25
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
betPARX🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:21
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:25
TABtouch🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
Fanatics🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:41
Codere (IT)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.87%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:46
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 16:46
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:51
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 16:40
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.36%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -12.29%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:40
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Bovada🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.27%EV -6.63%E -5.26%K -25.50%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.47%EV -10.40%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.26%EV -10.62%E -1.98%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 16:47
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.97%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:51
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 16:44
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 16:41
Unibet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.37%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.42%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.21%EV -13.12%E -2.52%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 16:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.53%EV -10.34%E -8.54%K -49.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -13.12%E -2.52%K -3.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-13 16:51
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 16:46
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.93%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -14.99%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.93%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -14.99%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 16:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:26
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:25
BetRivers🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.14%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -21.89%E -2.57%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 16:45
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.07%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.34%EV -21.89%E -2.57%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-13 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.38%EV -8.85%E -7.20%K -38.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.13%EV -26.48%E -3.31%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.49%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 16:46
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.44%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.97%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.60%0.4%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.81%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%0.7%2026-09-13 16:55
Matchbook◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.35%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.7%2026-09-13 16:55
Kalshi◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.22%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85%0.9%2026-09-13 16:51
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.58%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.22%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-09-13 16:56