Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Galatasaray v Kocaelispor

Inicio: 2026-09-13 17:00 UTC

Final: Galatasaray 1–0 Kocaelispor

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Galatasaray (Local)

Predicción 74.10%1.35momio equitativo
EV -2.93%
Ventaja -2.23%
Kelly -9.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.07%74.03%74.06%75.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.211.261.251.3182.64%79.63%80.00%76.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kocaelispor (Visitante)

Predicción 9.19%10.88momio equitativo
EV +5.68%
Ventaja +0.494%
Kelly +0.541%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.08%9.19%9.29%11.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
8.009.9410.0011.5012.50%10.06%10.00%8.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 16.71%5.99momio equitativo
EV +0.244%
Ventaja +0.041%
Kelly +0.049%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.70%16.78%16.65%18.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.515.506.0020.00%18.16%18.18%16.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Galatasaray (Local): 74.10%; Kocaelispor (Visitante): 9.19%; Empate: 16.71%. Para Kocaelispor (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 10.88. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 11.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.68%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.23%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV +5.68%E +0.494%K +0.541%G +0.031%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 16:45
Betsson🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.83%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%11.48I 8.71%NM 8.08%EV +5.50%E +0.479%K +0.525%G +0.029%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.09%EV -9.28%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.83%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%11.48I 8.71%NM 8.08%EV +5.50%E +0.479%K +0.525%G +0.029%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.09%EV -9.28%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 16:54
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%11.43I 8.75%NM 8.43%EV +5.04%E +0.441%K +0.483%G +0.024%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.28%EV -1.09%E -0.185%K -0.222%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-13 16:55
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.38%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%11.30I 8.85%NM 8.47%EV +3.85%E +0.340%K +0.373%G +0.014%5.93I 16.86%NM 16.14%EV -0.926%E -0.156%K -0.188%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-13 16:46
Coolbet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +1.09%E +0.099%K +0.109%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 16:36
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +1.09%E +0.099%K +0.109%G +0.001%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.27%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.68%EV -4.77%E -0.837%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 16:41
BetOnline.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.27%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.68%EV -4.77%E -0.837%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 16:41
DraftKings🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.53%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV +0.244%E +0.041%K +0.049%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:51
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.28%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 16:49
GTbets🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.05%EV -2.93%E -2.23%K -9.44%G +0.000%10.39I 9.62%NM 9.34%EV -4.52%E -0.435%K -0.481%G +0.000%5.84I 17.12%NM 16.61%EV -2.43%E -0.416%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-13 16:40
BetUS🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.93%EV -6.63%E -5.26%K -25.50%G +0.000%10.20I 9.80%NM 9.13%EV -6.26%E -0.614%K -0.681%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 16:36
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:25
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
betPARX🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:21
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:25
TABtouch🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:26
Fanatics🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:41
Codere (IT)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.87%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:46
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 16:46
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -3.93%E -0.684%K -0.828%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:51
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 16:40
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.36%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -12.29%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:40
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Bovada🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.27%EV -6.63%E -5.26%K -25.50%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.47%EV -10.40%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.26%EV -10.62%E -1.98%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 16:47
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.97%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:51
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 16:44
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.49%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 16:41
Unibet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.37%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.42%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.21%EV -13.12%E -2.52%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 16:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.53%EV -10.34%E -8.54%K -49.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -13.12%E -2.52%K -3.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-13 16:51
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 16:46
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.93%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -14.99%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.93%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.39%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -14.99%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 16:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:26
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:25
BetRivers🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.90%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.14%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -21.89%E -2.57%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 16:45
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.07%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.34%EV -21.89%E -2.57%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-13 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.38%EV -8.85%E -7.20%K -38.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.13%EV -26.48%E -3.31%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.49%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 16:46
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.44%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.97%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.60%0.4%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.81%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%0.7%2026-09-13 16:55
Matchbook◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.35%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.7%2026-09-13 16:55
Kalshi◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.22%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85%0.9%2026-09-13 16:51
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.58%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.22%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-09-13 16:56