Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fenerbahce v Kasimpasa SK

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 17:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fenerbahce (Local)

Prediction 72.08%1.39fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -7.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.74%72.23%72.08%74.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.271.261.3586.96%78.83%79.37%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kasimpasa SK (Visit)

Prediction 10.46%9.56fair odd
EV +15.04%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.226%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.68%10.38%10.45%12.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.759.059.0011.0012.90%11.05%11.11%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.46%5.73fair odd
EV +4.79%
Edge +0.798%
Kelly +0.957%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.46%17.40%17.47%19.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.385.456.0022.22%18.57%18.35%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fenerbahce (Local): 72.08%; Kasimpasa SK (Visit): 10.46%; Draw: 17.46%. For Kasimpasa SK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.56. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.37%EV -6.30%E -4.85%K -21.00%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +15.04%E +1.37%K +1.50%G +0.226%5.74I 17.42%NM 16.84%EV +0.245%E +0.043%K +0.052%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-23 16:59
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.97%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.68%EV +15.04%E +1.37%K +1.50%G +0.226%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -3.95%E -0.718%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-23 16:58
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -9.18%E -7.29%K -35.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV +4.58%E +0.458%K +0.509%G +0.023%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV +4.79%E +0.798%K +0.957%G +0.046%6.0%2026-02-23 17:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -7.74%E -6.05%K -27.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV +4.58%E +0.458%K +0.509%G +0.023%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-23 16:59
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +4.58%E +0.458%K +0.509%G +0.023%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -3.95%E -0.718%K -0.877%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-23 17:00
BetUS🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.34%EV -8.46%E -6.66%K -31.34%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.41%EV +3.54%E +0.357%K +0.398%G +0.014%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -5.69%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 16:58
GTbets🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.14%EV -5.58%E -4.26%K -18.00%G +0.000%9.59I 10.43%NM 9.85%EV +0.296%E +0.031%K +0.034%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.00%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-23 16:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.33%EV -8.46%E -6.66%K -31.34%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +4.79%E +0.798%K +0.957%G +0.046%5.9%2026-02-23 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.00%EV +1.29%E +0.223%K +0.269%G +0.003%7.8%2026-02-23 17:00
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.00%EV +1.29%E +0.223%K +0.269%G +0.003%7.8%2026-02-23 17:00
TABtouch🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.00%EV +1.29%E +0.223%K +0.269%G +0.003%7.8%2026-02-23 17:00
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.00%EV +1.29%E +0.223%K +0.269%G +0.003%7.8%2026-02-23 17:00
Casumo🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.00%EV +1.29%E +0.223%K +0.269%G +0.003%7.8%2026-02-23 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.00%EV +1.29%E +0.223%K +0.269%G +0.003%7.8%2026-02-23 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.00%EV +1.29%E +0.223%K +0.269%G +0.003%7.8%2026-02-23 17:00
betPARX🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.00%EV +1.29%E +0.223%K +0.269%G +0.003%7.8%2026-02-23 17:00
BetRivers🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.39%EV -10.62%E -8.57%K -44.27%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV +1.29%E +0.223%K +0.269%G +0.003%8.4%2026-02-23 16:57
Bet Right🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.06%EV -8.46%E -6.66%K -31.34%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-23 16:59
LeoVegas🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.44%EV -12.79%E -10.57%K -60.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -2.20%E -0.393%K -0.478%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-23 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.44%EV -12.79%E -10.57%K -60.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -2.20%E -0.393%K -0.478%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-23 17:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.44%EV -12.79%E -10.57%K -60.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -0.646%E -0.068%K -0.076%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -2.20%E -0.393%K -0.478%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-23 17:00
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.33%EV -5.58%E -4.26%K -18.00%G +0.000%9.13I 10.95%NM 10.52%EV -4.52%E -0.495%K -0.555%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.15%EV +3.91%E +0.658%K +0.790%G +0.031%4.1%2026-02-23 16:59
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.27%EV -5.58%E -4.26%K -18.00%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV -5.87%E -0.653%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -3.95%E -0.718%K -0.877%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-23 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -5.87%E -0.653%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV +4.79%E +0.798%K +0.957%G +0.046%7.8%2026-02-23 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -5.87%E -0.653%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV +4.79%E +0.798%K +0.957%G +0.046%7.8%2026-02-23 17:00
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -5.87%E -0.653%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-23 16:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -5.87%E -0.653%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-23 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -5.87%E -0.653%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-23 16:59
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.57%EV -10.62%E -8.57%K -44.27%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -5.87%E -0.653%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -2.20%E -0.393%K -0.478%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-23 16:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -9.18%E -7.29%K -35.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -5.87%E -0.653%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-23 17:00
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -12.07%E -9.89%K -54.84%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -5.87%E -0.653%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%13.1%2026-02-23 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.09%EV -12.07%E -9.89%K -54.84%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.64%EV -5.87%E -0.653%K -0.734%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.27%EV -21.41%E -4.76%K -6.12%G +0.000%15.3%2026-02-23 17:00
Fliff🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 72.53%EV -13.51%E -11.26%K -67.54%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 9.89%EV -7.97%E -0.905%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.58%EV -13.55%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%14.9%2026-02-23 17:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.69%EV -5.58%E -4.26%K -18.00%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.92%EV -10.06%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -5.69%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-23 17:00
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.55%EV -7.74%E -6.05%K -27.65%G +0.000%8.59I 11.64%NM 10.81%EV -10.16%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 16.64%EV -2.55%E -0.457%K -0.557%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-23 16:59
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.62%EV -2.70%E -2.00%K -7.70%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV -11.10%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-23 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -4.14%E -3.11%K -12.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -11.10%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-23 17:00
Everygame🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -6.30%E -4.85%K -21.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -11.10%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -3.95%E -0.718%K -0.877%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-23 16:59
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -6.30%E -4.85%K -21.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -11.10%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -17.04%E -3.59%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-23 16:59
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -11.10%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-23 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.77%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.41%EV -11.10%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.82%EV -17.92%E -3.81%K -4.84%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-23 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.77%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.41%EV -11.10%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.82%EV -17.92%E -3.81%K -4.84%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-23 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 72.73%EV -17.11%E -14.88%K -114.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 9.84%EV -11.10%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.43%EV -16.17%E -3.37%K -4.26%G +0.000%19.6%2026-02-23 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.77%EV -6.30%E -4.85%K -21.00%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.11%EV -12.15%E -1.45%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.12%EV -4.82%E -0.884%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-23 16:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -2.70%E -2.00%K -7.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -16.33%E -2.04%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-23 17:00
Bovada🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.21%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -16.33%E -2.04%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -3.95%E -0.718%K -0.877%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-23 16:59
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.30%E -4.85%K -21.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -16.33%E -2.04%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-23 17:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.19%EV -11.34%E -9.22%K -49.33%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.94%EV -16.33%E -2.04%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.87%EV -14.42%E -2.94%K -3.70%G +0.000%14.2%2026-02-23 16:57
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.85%EV -9.18%E -7.29%K -35.32%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.30%EV -17.38%E -2.20%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-23 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.74%EV -2.70%E -2.00%K -7.70%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.15%EV -18.95%E -2.44%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -9.19%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 16:59
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.74%EV -2.70%E -2.00%K -7.70%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.15%EV -18.95%E -2.44%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -9.19%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 16:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.48%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.51%0.9%2026-02-23 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.48%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.51%0.9%2026-02-23 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.48%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.51%0.9%2026-02-23 17:00
Smarkets1.32I 75.76%NM 74.63%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.96%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.42%1.5%2026-02-23 17:00
Matchbook1.32I 75.76%NM 74.63%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.96%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.42%1.5%2026-02-23 17:00