Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Erzurum BB v Samsunspor

2026-09-20 14:00 UTC — Turkey Super League

Resultado del partido

40 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Erzurum BB (Local)

Predicción 36.19%2.76momio equitativo
EV -2.65%
Ventaja -0.986%
Kelly -1.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.36%36.21%36.12%36.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.532.552.6943.48%39.52%39.22%37.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Samsunspor (Visitante)

Predicción 34.84%2.87momio equitativo
EV -2.78%
Ventaja -0.998%
Kelly -1.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.04%35.03%34.80%36.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.632.652.7942.55%38.07%37.74%35.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.97%3.45momio equitativo
EV +1.38%
Ventaja +0.395%
Kelly +0.553%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.98%28.76%29.08%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.243.243.5033.90%30.84%30.86%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Erzurum BB (Local): 36.19%; Samsunspor (Visitante): 34.84%; Empate: 28.97%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.45. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.50, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.38%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -4.10%E -1.55%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -9.40%E -3.62%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV +1.38%E +0.395%K +0.553%G +0.008%4.8%2026-09-13 19:16
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -11.15%E -4.37%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -0.066%E -0.019%K -0.027%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 14:15
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -11.15%E -4.37%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -1.51%E -0.446%K -0.631%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 14:14
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.96%E -0.885%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 14:35
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.96%E -0.885%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 14:36
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.96%E -0.885%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 14:35
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.96%E -0.885%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 14:35
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.96%E -0.885%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 14:36
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.96%E -0.885%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 14:36
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.96%E -0.885%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 14:36
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.96%E -0.885%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 14:36
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.96%E -0.885%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 14:35
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.08%EV -2.65%E -0.986%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.78%EV -2.78%E -0.998%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14%EV -3.54%E -1.06%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-13 15:20
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.91%E -2.27%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.59%EV -4.18%E -1.52%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 15:20
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -11.15%E -4.37%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 19:15
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -5.91%E -2.27%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -12.89%E -5.16%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 19:16
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.53%E -3.81%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -12.89%E -5.16%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 14:15
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.73%EV -8.80%E -3.49%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.79%EV -7.31%E -2.75%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 14:54
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.73%EV -8.80%E -3.49%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.79%EV -7.31%E -2.75%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 14:55
Pinnacle🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.95%EV -4.10%E -1.55%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -4.18%E -1.52%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -6.15%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.95%EV -4.10%E -1.55%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -4.18%E -1.52%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -6.15%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.95%EV -4.10%E -1.55%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -4.18%E -1.52%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -6.15%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 20:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -7.72%E -3.03%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -4.18%E -1.52%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.03%EV -6.27%E -2.42%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.82%EV -6.62%E -2.47%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 14:41
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.91%E -2.27%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -7.66%E -2.89%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 14:16
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.91%E -2.27%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -7.66%E -2.89%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 14:21
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -11.34%E -4.63%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -9.40%E -3.62%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 14:36
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -11.34%E -4.63%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -9.40%E -3.62%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -11.34%E -4.63%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -9.40%E -3.62%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 14:36
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -11.34%E -4.63%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -9.40%E -3.62%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 14:36
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -11.34%E -4.63%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.24%EV -11.15%E -4.37%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 14:35
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.63%EV -5.91%E -2.27%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -7.66%E -2.89%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 17:45
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.53%E -3.81%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.20%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 15:31
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.53%E -3.81%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.20%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.53%E -3.81%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.20%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 15:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.31%EV -13.15%E -5.48%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.57%EV -14.63%E -5.97%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -10.20%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-13 14:20
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -13.15%E -5.48%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -16.37%E -6.82%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -10.20%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-13 14:16
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.51%EV -13.15%E -5.48%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.77%EV -12.19%E -4.84%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.73%EV -11.65%E -3.82%K -5.68%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-13 14:18
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.23%EV -13.15%E -5.48%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.78%EV -12.89%E -5.16%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.99%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-13 14:16
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.25%EV -16.77%E -7.29%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.48%EV -18.12%E -7.71%K -13.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.27%EV -14.55%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%19.9%2026-09-13 14:21
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 35.79%2.44I 40.98%NM 35.20%2.96I 33.78%NM 29.02%16.4%2026-09-13 14:21