The School of Odds

Basaksehir v Kocaelispor

2026-08-16 16:00 UTC — Turkey Super League

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Basaksehir (Local)

Prediction 58.87%1.70fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -5.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.43%58.63%58.80%59.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.491.571.571.6467.11%63.86%63.69%60.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Kocaelispor (Visit)

Prediction 16.57%6.03fair odd
EV +1.59%
Edge +0.259%
Kelly +0.310%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 6.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.80%17.21%16.53%20.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.625.245.106.1321.65%19.09%19.61%16.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.56%4.07fair odd
EV +3.16%
Edge +0.753%
Kelly +0.988%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.13%24.16%24.68%25.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.693.654.2030.30%27.12%27.40%23.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.23%E -3.25%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.12%EV -23.44%E -5.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV +3.16%E +0.753%K +0.988%G +0.031%7.6%2026-07-26 15:50
Betsson1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.23%E -3.25%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.12%EV -23.44%E -5.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV +3.16%E +0.753%K +0.988%G +0.031%7.6%2026-07-26 15:50
Tipico (DE)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.59%EV -7.58%E -4.83%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.41%EV -5.54%E -0.972%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.21%E -1.08%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 15:50
1xBet1.64I 60.98%NM 59.05%EV -3.46%E -2.11%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.13I 16.31%NM 15.80%EV +1.59%E +0.259%K +0.310%G +0.005%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.15%EV -5.44%E -1.41%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-26 19:29
Coolbet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.74%EV -4.64%E -2.86%K -7.48%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.71%E -0.819%K -0.991%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.72%EV -5.44%E -1.41%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 16:00
SportsBet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -5.82%E -3.63%K -9.69%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.49%EV -5.54%E -0.972%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -6.66%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 15:50
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 58.91%EV -6.40%E -4.03%K -10.85%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.43%EV -5.54%E -0.972%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -6.66%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 17:34
Codere (IT)1.59I 62.89%NM 58.15%EV -6.40%E -4.03%K -10.85%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -7.20%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -10.35%E -2.84%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 15:50
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -7.58%E -4.83%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -17.14%E -3.43%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.58%E -3.22%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-26 19:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 57.45%EV -8.76%E -5.65%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -17.14%E -3.43%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -11.58%E -3.22%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 18:45
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 57.32%EV -10.52%E -6.92%K -20.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.43%EV -17.14%E -3.43%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.25%EV -15.26%E -4.42%K -6.23%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-26 15:50
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 56.43%EV -9.94%E -6.49%K -18.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.18%EV -21.28%E -4.48%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.39%EV -16.49%E -4.85%K -6.87%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-26 15:49
Unibet (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 57.60%EV -11.70%E -7.80%K -23.40%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.61%EV -13.82%E -2.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.79%EV -17.72%E -5.29%K -7.54%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-26 15:50
Betclic (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 57.41%EV -11.70%E -7.80%K -23.40%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.89%EV -15.48%E -3.04%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.71%EV -17.72%E -5.29%K -7.54%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-26 15:49
Winamax (FR)1.49I 67.11%NM 56.54%EV -12.29%E -8.25%K -25.08%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 17.93%EV -22.11%E -4.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.53%EV -18.94%E -5.74%K -8.24%G +0.000%18.7%2026-07-26 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-26 19:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-26 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-26 19:25