Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Thun v Grasshopper Zürich

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Thun (Local)

Prediction 61.47%1.63fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.88%61.51%61.51%63.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.491.501.6075.76%66.90%66.67%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grasshopper Zürich (Visit)

Prediction 16.25%6.15fair odd
EV +7.26%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.094%

assuming max odds 6.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.61%16.23%16.16%18.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.615.506.6020.41%17.82%18.18%15.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.28%4.49fair odd
EV +0.270%
Edge +0.060%
Kelly +0.077%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.78%22.26%22.33%24.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.084.104.5027.78%24.52%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Thun (Local): 61.47%; Grasshopper Zürich (Visit): 16.25%; Draw: 22.28%. For Grasshopper Zürich (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.15. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.60%EV -5.34%E -3.47%K -9.89%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.61%EV +7.26%E +1.10%K +1.30%G +0.094%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.79%EV -5.75%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.17%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV +5.63%E +0.867%K +1.02%G +0.058%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.17%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV +5.63%E +0.867%K +1.02%G +0.058%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 16:45
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.36%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV +1.57%E +0.251%K +0.299%G +0.005%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -14.21%E -3.69%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 16:30
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%6.24I 16.03%NM 14.97%EV +1.41%E +0.226%K +0.269%G +0.004%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.20%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV +0.758%E +0.122%K +0.146%G +0.001%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 16:45
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.26%EV -5.34%E -3.47%K -9.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 16:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -9.64%E -6.56%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV +0.270%E +0.060%K +0.077%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -9.03%E -6.10%K -18.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -4.19%E -0.974%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:35
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 16:53
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 16:55
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 16:55
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 16:50
GTbets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.25%EV -1.65%E -1.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.81I 17.21%NM 16.32%EV -5.58%E -0.960%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.43%EV -13.55%E -3.49%K -4.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-14 11:45
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.86%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -5.74%E -0.990%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.43%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -1.96%E -0.445%K -0.576%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -5.30%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 16:30
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 16:45
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 16:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.85%EV -6.57%E -4.32%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -8.99%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -1.96%E -0.445%K -0.576%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 16:35
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.51%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -5.30%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 16:35
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.51%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -5.30%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 16:35
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:03
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:05
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:05
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 16:38
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.83%EV -9.03%E -6.10%K -18.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -5.30%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.35%EV -9.03%E -6.10%K -18.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 16:30
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-14 16:19
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-14 16:28
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-14 16:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.18%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.75%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%EV -19.78%E -5.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-14 16:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.00%EV -8.41%E -5.65%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.83%EV -12.24%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 17:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 61.10%EV -12.72%E -8.96%K -30.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.07%EV -12.24%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.83%EV -15.33%E -4.03%K -5.47%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-14 16:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 62.82%EV -18.86%E -14.29%K -58.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.36%EV -12.24%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.82%EV -15.33%E -4.03%K -5.47%G +0.000%20.6%2026-03-14 16:50
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.92%EV -5.34%E -3.47%K -9.89%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -14.68%E -2.80%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 13:24
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -14.68%E -2.80%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 16:35
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.37%EV -6.57%E -4.32%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -14.68%E -2.80%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -14.21%E -3.69%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-14 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.52%EV -10.26%E -7.03%K -22.30%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.83%EV -14.68%E -2.80%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-14 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.39%EV -9.03%E -6.10%K -18.81%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.47%EV -15.49%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -4.19%E -0.974%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 16:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.89%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.19%EV -17.12%E -3.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.74%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.74%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 13:25
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.74%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 13:25
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.74%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 13:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.62%EV -10.87%E -7.50%K -24.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -20.37%E -4.16%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-03-14 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-03-14 16:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-03-14 16:35
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 64.01%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.08%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%1.4%2026-03-14 16:55
Smarkets1.53I 65.36%NM 64.20%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.35%1.8%2026-03-14 16:55