La escuela de los momios

FC Thun v Grasshopper Zürich

Inicio: 2026-03-14 17:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Thun (Local)

Predicción 61.47%1.63momio equitativo
EV -1.65%
Ventaja -1.03%
Kelly -2.76%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.88%61.51%61.51%63.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.321.491.501.6075.76%66.90%66.67%62.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Grasshopper Zürich (Visitante)

Predicción 16.25%6.15momio equitativo
EV +7.26%
Ventaja +1.10%
Kelly +1.30%
Crecimiento +0.094%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.61%16.23%16.16%18.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.905.615.506.6020.41%17.82%18.18%15.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.28%4.49momio equitativo
EV +0.270%
Ventaja +0.060%
Kelly +0.077%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.78%22.26%22.33%24.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.084.104.5027.78%24.52%24.39%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.54I 64.94%NM 62.60%EV -5.34%E -3.47%K -9.89%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.61%EV +7.26%E +1.10%K +1.30%G +0.094%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.79%EV -5.75%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 16:55
LowVig.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 62.17%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV +5.63%E +0.867%K +1.02%G +0.058%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 16:40
BetOnline.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 62.17%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV +5.63%E +0.867%K +1.02%G +0.058%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 16:45
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 61.36%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV +1.57%E +0.251%K +0.299%G +0.005%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -14.21%E -3.69%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 16:30
1xBet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%6.24I 16.03%NM 14.97%EV +1.41%E +0.226%K +0.269%G +0.004%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 16:50
Marathon Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.20%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV +0.758%E +0.122%K +0.146%G +0.001%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 16:45
DraftKings1.54I 64.94%NM 61.26%EV -5.34%E -3.47%K -9.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 16:15
Tipico (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -9.64%E -6.56%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV +0.270%E +0.060%K +0.077%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 16:55
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -9.03%E -6.10%K -18.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -4.19%E -0.974%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 16:35
Bovada1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 16:53
BetUS1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 16:55
BetAnything1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 16:55
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -2.49%E -0.415%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 16:50
GTbets1.60I 62.50%NM 59.25%EV -1.65%E -1.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.81I 17.21%NM 16.32%EV -5.58%E -0.960%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.43%EV -13.55%E -3.49%K -4.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-14 11:45
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 60.86%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -5.74%E -0.990%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 16:45
Unibet (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.43%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -1.96%E -0.445%K -0.576%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 16:55
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -5.30%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 16:30
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 16:45
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 16:45
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 16:45
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 16:45
Codere (IT)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.85%EV -6.57%E -4.32%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -8.99%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -1.96%E -0.445%K -0.576%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 16:35
Betsson1.50I 66.67%NM 61.51%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -5.30%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 16:35
NordicBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.51%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -5.30%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 16:35
Unibet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:03
BetRivers1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Unibet (NL)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Grosvenor1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Casumo1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Unibet (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Virgin Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:05
TABtouch1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:05
betPARX1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:05
Svenska Spel1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
ATG (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 17:04
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -7.80%E -5.20%K -15.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 16:38
Bet Right1.48I 67.57%NM 61.83%EV -9.03%E -6.10%K -18.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -5.30%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 16:55
Betr (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 61.35%EV -9.03%E -6.10%K -18.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 16:30
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-14 16:19
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-14 16:28
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-14 16:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.18%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.75%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%EV -19.78%E -5.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-14 16:50
LiveScore Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 61.00%EV -8.41%E -5.65%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.83%EV -12.24%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 17:04
NetBet (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 61.10%EV -12.72%E -8.96%K -30.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.07%EV -12.24%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.83%EV -15.33%E -4.03%K -5.47%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-14 16:35
PMU (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 62.82%EV -18.86%E -14.29%K -58.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.36%EV -12.24%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.82%EV -15.33%E -4.03%K -5.47%G +0.000%20.6%2026-03-14 16:50
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 59.92%EV -5.34%E -3.47%K -9.89%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -14.68%E -2.80%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 13:24
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -14.68%E -2.80%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 16:35
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 59.37%EV -6.57%E -4.32%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -14.68%E -2.80%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -14.21%E -3.69%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-14 16:24
Betclic (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 60.52%EV -10.26%E -7.03%K -22.30%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.83%EV -14.68%E -2.80%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-14 16:35
Winamax (DE)1.48I 67.57%NM 61.39%EV -9.03%E -6.10%K -18.81%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.47%EV -15.49%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -4.19%E -0.974%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 16:35
Parions Sport (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.89%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.19%EV -17.12%E -3.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.74%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.74%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 13:25
Neds1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.74%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 13:25
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -5.96%E -3.89%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.74%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 13:25
Winamax (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 60.62%EV -10.87%E -7.50%K -24.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -20.37%E -4.16%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -8.64%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 16:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-03-14 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-03-14 16:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-03-14 16:35
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 64.01%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.08%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%1.4%2026-03-14 16:55
Smarkets1.53I 65.36%NM 64.20%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.35%1.8%2026-03-14 16:55