Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Thun v FC Luzern

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 17:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Thun (Local)

Prediction 51.01%1.96fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.82%51.04%50.98%53.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.791.801.9160.24%56.01%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Luzern (Visit)

Prediction 25.64%3.90fair odd
EV +2.57%
Edge +0.642%
Kelly +0.856%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.77%25.54%25.62%27.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.673.604.0031.25%27.26%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.35%4.28fair odd
EV -0.754%
Edge -0.177%
Kelly -0.232%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.78%23.42%23.39%25.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.883.904.2530.30%25.78%25.64%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Thun (Local): 51.01%; FC Luzern (Visit): 25.64%; Draw: 23.35%. For FC Luzern (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 16:46
LeoVegas🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.57%EV -13.29%E -7.82%K -18.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -10.10%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 17:00
GTbets🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV +1.29%E +0.326%K +0.436%G +0.006%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.08%EV -4.49%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 16:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +0.005%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 17:00
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.27%EV -7.17%E -3.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.68%EV -3.07%E -0.813%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.05%EV -9.39%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -8.70%E -4.86%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.82%EV -3.59%E -0.954%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -5.42%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.71%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -3.84%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.601%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-28 16:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.84%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.13%EV -3.60%E -1.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -4.61%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.90%EV -1.45%E -0.345%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.01%EV -3.09%E -1.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.80%EV -0.754%E -0.177%K -0.232%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.01%EV -3.09%E -1.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.80%EV -0.754%E -0.177%K -0.232%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 17:00
BetAnything🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.01%EV -3.09%E -1.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.80%EV -0.754%E -0.177%K -0.232%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.67%EV -5.13%E -2.76%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 17:00
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 16:59
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 17:00
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -7.17%E -3.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 17:00
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -7.17%E -3.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 17:00
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 16:59
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-28 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.95%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-28 16:59
BetUS🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.10%EV -7.68%E -4.24%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -8.97%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.84%EV -5.42%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 16:59
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -4.62%E -2.47%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 17:00
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -2.58%E -1.35%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 17:00
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 16:59
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 17:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 16:59
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 16:59
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -15.93%E -4.43%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 17:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.70%EV -14.31%E -8.52%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.48%EV -13.60%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%15.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.68%EV -7.17%E -3.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -11.53%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 17:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.50%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.62%EV -11.53%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.88%EV -13.60%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 17:00
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 17:00
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 16:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.83%EV -8.70%E -4.86%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.39%EV -13.33%E -3.94%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 49.57%EV -11.25%E -6.47%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.14%EV -15.38%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.30%EV -17.10%E -4.82%K -6.71%G +0.000%15.9%2026-02-28 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.82%EV -11.76%E -6.80%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.59%EV -15.38%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.59%EV -22.94%E -6.95%K -9.97%G +0.000%18.4%2026-02-28 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 50.57%EV -15.33%E -9.24%K -23.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.44%EV -15.38%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.99%EV -18.27%E -5.22%K -7.31%G +0.000%19.1%2026-02-28 17:00
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.10%EV -11.76%E -6.80%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -17.94%E -5.61%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.81%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%15.4%2026-02-28 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.94I 51.55%NM 51.20%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.65%0.7%2026-02-28 16:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59%0.9%2026-02-28 17:00
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%1.2%2026-02-28 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-02-28 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 50.50%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%3.1%2026-02-28 17:00