La escuela de los momios

FC Thun v FC Luzern

Inicio: 2026-02-28 17:02 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Thun (Local)

Predicción 51.01%1.96momio equitativo
EV -2.58%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -2.83%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.82%51.04%50.98%53.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.661.791.801.9160.24%56.01%55.56%52.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Luzern (Visitante)

Predicción 25.64%3.90momio equitativo
EV +2.57%
Ventaja +0.642%
Kelly +0.856%
Crecimiento +0.022%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.77%25.54%25.62%27.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.673.604.0031.25%27.26%27.78%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.35%4.28momio equitativo
EV -0.754%
Ventaja -0.177%
Kelly -0.232%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.78%23.42%23.39%25.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.883.904.2530.30%25.78%25.64%23.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Grosvenor1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
TABtouch1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Casumo1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
BetRivers1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 16:46
LeoVegas1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Virgin Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
betPARX1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
ATG (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 53.57%EV -13.29%E -7.82%K -18.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV +2.57%E +0.642%K +0.856%G +0.022%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -10.10%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 17:00
GTbets1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV +1.29%E +0.326%K +0.436%G +0.006%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.08%EV -4.49%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 16:59
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +0.005%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 17:00
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.27%EV -7.17%E -3.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.68%EV -3.07%E -0.813%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.05%EV -9.39%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Marathon Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -8.70%E -4.86%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.82%EV -3.59%E -0.954%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -5.42%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Coolbet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.71%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -3.84%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.601%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-28 16:59
Unibet (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.84%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Pinnacle1.89I 52.91%NM 51.13%EV -3.60%E -1.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -4.61%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.90%EV -1.45%E -0.345%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 16:59
BetOnline.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 51.01%EV -3.09%E -1.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.80%EV -0.754%E -0.177%K -0.232%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 17:00
LowVig.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 51.01%EV -3.09%E -1.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.80%EV -0.754%E -0.177%K -0.232%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 17:00
BetAnything1.90I 52.63%NM 51.01%EV -3.09%E -1.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.80%EV -0.754%E -0.177%K -0.232%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Codere (IT)1.86I 53.76%NM 50.67%EV -5.13%E -2.76%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 17:00
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 16:59
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 17:00
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -7.17%E -3.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 17:00
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -7.17%E -3.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 17:00
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 16:59
SportsBet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-28 17:00
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.95%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-28 16:59
BetUS1.81I 55.25%NM 51.10%EV -7.68%E -4.24%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -8.97%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.84%EV -5.42%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 16:59
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -4.62%E -2.47%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 17:00
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -2.58%E -1.35%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 17:00
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 16:59
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 17:00
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 16:59
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 16:59
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 16:59
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -15.93%E -4.43%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 17:00
NetBet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 51.70%EV -14.31%E -8.52%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.48%EV -13.60%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%15.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.68%EV -7.17%E -3.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -11.53%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 17:00
Parions Sport (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 50.50%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.62%EV -11.53%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.88%EV -13.60%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.2%2026-02-28 16:59
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 17:00
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 17:00
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 16:59
Betclic (FR)1.79I 55.87%NM 49.83%EV -8.70%E -4.86%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.39%EV -13.33%E -3.94%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Winamax (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 49.57%EV -11.25%E -6.47%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.14%EV -15.38%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.30%EV -17.10%E -4.82%K -6.71%G +0.000%15.9%2026-02-28 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 48.82%EV -11.76%E -6.80%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.59%EV -15.38%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.59%EV -22.94%E -6.95%K -9.97%G +0.000%18.4%2026-02-28 17:00
PMU (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 50.57%EV -15.33%E -9.24%K -23.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.44%EV -15.38%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.99%EV -18.27%E -5.22%K -7.31%G +0.000%19.1%2026-02-28 17:00
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 50.10%EV -11.76%E -6.80%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -17.94%E -5.61%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.81%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%15.4%2026-02-28 17:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.94I 51.55%NM 51.20%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.65%0.7%2026-02-28 16:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59%0.9%2026-02-28 17:00
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%1.2%2026-02-28 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-02-28 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 50.50%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%3.1%2026-02-28 17:00