Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC St Gallen v FC Lugano

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC St Gallen (Local)

Prediction 46.44%2.15fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.77%46.40%46.46%47.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.992.002.0855.56%50.17%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Lugano (Visit)

Prediction 27.38%3.65fair odd
EV +1.29%
Edge +0.349%
Kelly +0.479%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%27.42%27.40%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.303.253.7032.26%30.32%30.77%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.486%
Kelly -0.662%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%26.18%26.14%27.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.493.503.7532.26%28.68%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC St Gallen (Local): 46.44%; FC Lugano (Visit): 27.38%; Draw: 26.18%. For FC Lugano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -9.44%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV +1.29%E +0.349%K +0.479%G +0.006%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 19:19
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 47.01%EV -4.33%E -2.10%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -0.076%E -0.021%K -0.029%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.46%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 19:15
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.66%EV -8.97%E -4.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.80%EV -0.897%E -0.248%K -0.343%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.54%EV -7.84%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 19:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.09%EV -4.79%E -2.34%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.82%EV -1.44%E -0.401%K -0.556%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.09%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 15:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.09%EV -4.79%E -2.34%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.82%EV -1.44%E -0.401%K -0.556%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.09%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 15:25
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.44%E -0.401%K -0.556%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 19:24
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.18%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.18%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 19:25
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.44%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -4.18%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 19:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.34%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:35
Bovada🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -8.51%E -4.32%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -9.68%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 19:08
BetUS🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -8.51%E -4.32%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -9.68%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 19:10
BetAnything🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -8.51%E -4.32%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -9.68%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 19:10
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 19:00
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 19:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 19:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 19:00
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.44%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 17:55
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.44%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 19:05
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.44%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 19:20
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.44%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 19:04
GTbets🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.40%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.54%EV -7.74%E -2.30%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.07%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 11:45
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -6.19%E -3.06%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -8.29%E -2.47%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 14:35
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -6.19%E -3.06%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -8.29%E -2.47%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 14:35
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.77%EV -3.40%E -1.63%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -1.82%E -0.486%K -0.662%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 19:20
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -4.79%E -2.34%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 11:45
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.44%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 19:24
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -11.29%E -5.91%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-14 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -4.79%E -2.34%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.82%EV -6.19%E -3.06%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 19:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.15%EV -8.04%E -4.06%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 14:35
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -12.29%E -3.67%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-14 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.26%EV -10.37%E -5.37%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 19:20
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -12.40%E -3.87%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 19:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.28%EV -11.76%E -6.19%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -12.40%E -3.87%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.25%EV -12.29%E -3.67%K -5.23%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-14 19:05
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.85%EV -13.15%E -7.03%K -15.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -12.40%E -3.87%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.77%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 16:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.49%EV -13.15%E -7.03%K -15.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.17%EV -12.40%E -3.87%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.34%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-14 19:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.86%EV -16.40%E -9.11%K -20.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.36%EV -12.40%E -3.87%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.78%EV -17.53%E -5.56%K -8.15%G +0.000%18.6%2026-03-14 19:25
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:49
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:49
LeoVegas🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:49
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:50
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:50
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:50
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.26%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 01:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -13.76%E -4.37%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-14 19:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.87%EV -6.19%E -3.06%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -15.13%E -4.88%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-13 01:50
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -15.13%E -4.88%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -15.13%E -4.88%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 11:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -15.13%E -4.88%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 11:45
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -15.13%E -4.88%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.79%EV -10.83%E -5.64%K -11.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -15.13%E -4.88%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.86%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 14:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -11.29%E -5.91%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -15.13%E -4.88%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -18.84%E -6.08%K -8.97%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-14 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-03-14 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-03-14 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-03-14 19:25
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-03-14 19:20
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 47.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.96%2.7%2026-03-14 19:25