L’École des cotes

FC Luzern v FC Zurich

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-12 18:30 UTC

Score final : FC Luzern 1–0 FC Zurich

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

44 opérateurs (13 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

FC Luzern (Local)

Prévision 64.03%1.56cote équitable
EV -2.03%
Avantage -1.33%
Kelly -3.83%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.53

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.69%64.02%64.13%66.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.361.451.451.5373.53%68.90%68.97%65.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

FC Zurich (Visiteur)

Prévision 16.91%5.91cote équitable
EV +4.84%
Avantage +0.780%
Kelly +0.930%
Croissance +0.045%

avec la cote maximale 6.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.07%16.82%16.88%18.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.395.256.2022.22%18.56%19.05%16.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 19.06%5.25cote équitable
EV -4.72%
Avantage -0.944%
Kelly -1.18%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.24%19.16%18.99%22.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.634.605.0026.67%21.62%21.74%20.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (44 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 66.25%EV -9.71%E -6.89%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV +4.84%E +0.780%K +0.930%G +0.045%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -4.72%E -0.944%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 18:25
LowVig.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 66.25%EV -9.71%E -6.89%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV +4.84%E +0.780%K +0.930%G +0.045%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -4.72%E -0.944%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 18:25
Bet Right1.41I 70.92%NM 65.28%EV -9.71%E -6.89%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV +1.46%E +0.243%K +0.291%G +0.004%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -9.48%E -2.00%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-12 18:26
Bovada1.40I 71.43%NM 65.70%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV +1.46%E +0.243%K +0.291%G +0.004%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.97%EV -7.58%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-12 18:25
betfred_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV +1.46%E +0.243%K +0.291%G +0.004%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -12.34%E -2.68%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-12 18:26
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV +1.46%E +0.243%K +0.291%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-12 18:25
Coolbet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.38%EV -5.23%E -3.53%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV -2.77%E -0.482%K -0.584%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -4.72%E -0.944%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 18:15
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.84%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.89%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -2.77%E -0.482%K -0.584%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -4.72%E -0.944%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-12 18:25
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 65.14%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -2.77%E -0.482%K -0.584%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -8.53%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-12 18:24
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 65.01%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -2.77%E -0.482%K -0.584%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -9.48%E -2.00%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-12 18:25
GTbets1.52I 65.79%NM 63.26%EV -2.67%E -1.76%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.87%EV -3.62%E -0.635%K -0.770%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.87%EV -7.77%E -1.60%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-12 18:25
Pinnacle1.53I 65.36%NM 63.06%EV -2.03%E -1.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 17.29%EV -5.65%E -1.01%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.65%EV -6.43%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-12 18:16
PointsBet (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -5.87%E -3.99%K -12.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -7.00%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.48%E -2.00%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-12 17:55
BetMGM1.44I 69.44%NM 64.52%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -7.00%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -4.72%E -0.944%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 18:25
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.00%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -9.48%E -2.00%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-12 18:25
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.93%EV -5.23%E -3.53%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -8.69%E -1.61%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.82%EV -10.44%E -2.22%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-12 18:21
Unibet (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 64.81%EV -11.63%E -8.43%K -30.61%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.56%EV -8.69%E -1.61%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -8.53%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-12 18:25
NetBet (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 64.52%EV -12.27%E -8.96%K -33.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.68%EV -10.38%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -10.44%E -2.22%K -2.82%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-12 18:25
Unibet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:10
Casumo1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:09
Unibet (NL)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:09
Virgin Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:09
Unibet (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:09
BetRivers1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:10
TABtouch1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:10
Grosvenor1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:10
Svenska Spel1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:09
ATG (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:09
betPARX1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 12:09
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.56%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.89%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-12 18:16
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 63.65%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.97%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -12.34%E -2.68%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-12 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.65%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.97%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -12.34%E -2.68%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-12 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.65%EV -10.35%E -7.39%K -25.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.97%EV -11.23%E -2.14%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -12.34%E -2.68%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-12 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.37%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -12.07%E -2.32%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -16.15%E -3.67%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 12:59
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 61.37%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -12.07%E -2.32%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -16.15%E -3.67%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 13:00
Winamax (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 64.22%EV -9.07%E -6.39%K -21.60%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.54%EV -12.07%E -2.32%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -4.72%E -0.944%K -1.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-12 18:26
PMU (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 61.33%EV -5.23%E -3.53%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.80%EV -13.76%E -2.70%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.87%EV -17.11%E -3.93%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-11 12:09
LiveScore Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 61.33%EV -5.23%E -3.53%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.80%EV -13.76%E -2.70%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.87%EV -17.11%E -3.93%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-11 12:09
SportsBet1.47I 68.03%NM 61.70%EV -5.87%E -3.99%K -12.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -15.45%E -3.09%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-12 18:20
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -15.45%E -3.09%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -14.25%E -3.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-12 17:35
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 64.17%EV -12.91%E -9.49%K -35.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.45%EV -15.45%E -3.09%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.37%EV -9.48%E -2.00%K -2.53%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-12 18:26
Winamax (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 63.31%EV -10.99%E -7.91%K -28.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.96%EV -17.14%E -3.50%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.72%EV -10.44%E -2.22%K -2.82%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-12 18:26
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 61.25%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.38%EV -18.84%E -3.92%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.37%EV -17.49%E -4.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-12 18:21
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 58.69%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.78%EV -23.91%E -5.31%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.54%EV -28.54%E -7.61%K -10.38%G +0.000%18.3%2026-05-12 18:16
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 65.97%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%1.0%2026-05-12 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%NM 65.97%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%1.0%2026-05-12 18:26
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 65.97%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%1.0%2026-05-12 18:26
Matchbook1.48I 67.57%NM 66.81%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.66%1.1%2026-05-12 18:26
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 65.67%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.39%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.94%1.5%2026-05-12 18:25