Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Luzern v FC Winterthur

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Luzern (Local)

Prediction 71.20%1.40fair odd
EV -5.31%
Edge -3.99%
Kelly -16.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.66%71.23%71.04%73.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.291.301.3384.75%77.36%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Winterthur (Visit)

Prediction 12.66%7.90fair odd
EV +10.80%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.151%

assuming max odds 8.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.88%12.70%12.77%14.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.277.508.7516.67%13.75%13.33%11.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.14%6.20fair odd
EV +4.90%
Edge +0.754%
Kelly +0.891%
Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.84%16.08%16.19%19.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.555.506.5022.22%18.02%18.18%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Luzern (Local): 71.20%; FC Winterthur (Visit): 12.66%; Draw: 16.14%. For FC Winterthur (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.90. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.25%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.88%EV +10.80%E +1.23%K +1.39%G +0.151%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -3.17%E -0.529%K -0.634%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 15:15
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.45%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.63%EV +1.94%E +0.241%K +0.275%G +0.005%5.53I 18.08%NM 16.93%EV -10.76%E -1.95%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.10%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV +1.31%E +0.163%K +0.187%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV +4.90%E +0.754%K +0.891%G +0.044%3.6%2026-03-15 14:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.10%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV +1.31%E +0.163%K +0.187%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV +4.90%E +0.754%K +0.891%G +0.044%3.6%2026-03-15 14:55
FanDuel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.62%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV +1.31%E +0.163%K +0.187%G +0.002%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.76%EV -4.78%E -0.811%K -0.977%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 12:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV +1.31%E +0.163%K +0.187%G +0.002%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 12:20
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV +1.31%E +0.163%K +0.187%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 15:10
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 12.25%EV -0.593%E -0.076%K -0.087%G +0.000%6.21I 16.10%NM 15.48%EV +0.218%E +0.035%K +0.042%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 15:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.96%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.97%EV -1.23%E -0.157%K -0.180%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.06%EV +0.057%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.80%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.97%EV -1.23%E -0.157%K -0.180%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 15:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.14%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.47%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.66%EV -1.86%E -0.240%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.21%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-15 15:15
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.63%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -3.17%E -0.529%K -0.634%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 14:55
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Bet Victor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.10%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 15:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.65%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -14.47%E -2.73%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-15 12:20
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.70%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.24%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-15 15:25
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -11.00%E -8.80%K -44.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 15:20
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -11.00%E -8.80%K -44.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 15:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.51%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.76%EV -6.29%E -0.850%K -0.983%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.17%E -0.529%K -0.634%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-15 15:20
GTbets🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.52%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%7.38I 13.55%NM 12.61%EV -6.54%E -0.887%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.52I 18.12%NM 16.86%EV -10.92%E -1.98%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-15 12:20
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.68%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -8.19%E -1.13%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 12:20
BetAnything🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.31%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.69%EV -8.19%E -1.13%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 15:25
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.70%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.05%EV -10.09%E -1.42%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -8.01%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 15:20
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.70%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.05%EV -10.09%E -1.42%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -8.01%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 15:20
BetUS🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.83%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 15:25
Bovada🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.53%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -9.63%E -1.72%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-15 15:19
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.99%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-15 07:50
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 08:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 08:10
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 05:49
Everygame🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.64%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-15 15:19
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.89%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.18%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-15 15:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 68.66%EV -11.00%E -8.80%K -44.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.26%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.07%EV -27.38%E -6.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-15 15:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 70.71%EV -12.43%E -10.10%K -54.03%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.88%EV -14.52%E -2.15%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.41%EV -14.47%E -2.73%K -3.36%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-15 15:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 71.11%EV -15.99%E -13.55%K -88.81%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.43%EV -14.52%E -2.15%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.45%EV -17.70%E -3.47%K -4.32%G +0.000%19.2%2026-03-15 15:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.05%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.47%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.48%EV -16.42%E -2.49%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.47%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-15 15:21
Winamax (DE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.57%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.43%EV -4.78%E -0.811%K -0.977%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-15 15:20
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.69%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.62%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.70%EV -14.47%E -2.73%K -3.36%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-15 15:20
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.99%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -24.02%E -4.00%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-15 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.32%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -24.02%E -4.00%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.01%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-15 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.30%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.24%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-03-15 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.30%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.24%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-03-15 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.30%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.24%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-03-15 15:15
Smarkets1.35I 74.07%NM 73.11%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92%1.3%2026-03-15 15:10
Matchbook1.34I 74.63%NM 73.08%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.13%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.79%2.1%2026-03-15 15:25