La escuela de los momios

FC Luzern v FC Winterthur

Inicio: 2026-03-15 15:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Luzern (Local)

Predicción 71.20%1.40momio equitativo
EV -5.31%
Ventaja -3.99%
Kelly -16.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.66%71.23%71.04%73.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.181.291.301.3384.75%77.36%76.92%75.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Winterthur (Visitante)

Predicción 12.66%7.90momio equitativo
EV +10.80%
Ventaja +1.23%
Kelly +1.39%
Crecimiento +0.151%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.88%12.70%12.77%14.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.007.277.508.7516.67%13.75%13.33%11.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 16.14%6.20momio equitativo
EV +4.90%
Ventaja +0.754%
Kelly +0.891%
Crecimiento +0.044%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.84%16.08%16.19%19.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.555.506.5022.22%18.02%18.18%15.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.30I 76.92%NM 73.25%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.88%EV +10.80%E +1.23%K +1.39%G +0.151%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -3.17%E -0.529%K -0.634%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 15:15
1xBet1.31I 76.34%NM 71.45%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.63%EV +1.94%E +0.241%K +0.275%G +0.005%5.53I 18.08%NM 16.93%EV -10.76%E -1.95%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 15:25
LowVig.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 73.10%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV +1.31%E +0.163%K +0.187%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV +4.90%E +0.754%K +0.891%G +0.044%3.6%2026-03-15 14:55
BetOnline.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 73.10%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV +1.31%E +0.163%K +0.187%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV +4.90%E +0.754%K +0.891%G +0.044%3.6%2026-03-15 14:55
FanDuel1.28I 78.13%NM 72.62%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV +1.31%E +0.163%K +0.187%G +0.002%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.76%EV -4.78%E -0.811%K -0.977%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 12:35
PointsBet (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV +1.31%E +0.163%K +0.187%G +0.002%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 12:20
Bet Right1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV +1.31%E +0.163%K +0.187%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 15:10
Pinnacle1.33I 75.19%NM 72.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 12.25%EV -0.593%E -0.076%K -0.087%G +0.000%6.21I 16.10%NM 15.48%EV +0.218%E +0.035%K +0.042%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 15:20
Tipico (DE)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.96%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.97%EV -1.23%E -0.157%K -0.180%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.06%EV +0.057%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 14:15
Marathon Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 71.80%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.97%EV -1.23%E -0.157%K -0.180%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 15:20
Betr (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 71.14%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.47%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.66%EV -1.86%E -0.240%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.21%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-15 15:15
DraftKings1.32I 75.76%NM 71.63%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -3.17%E -0.529%K -0.634%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 14:55
Unibet1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Unibet (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
TABtouch1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
LeoVegas1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
BetRivers1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Grosvenor1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Unibet (NL)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Casumo1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
ATG (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
betPARX1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Svenska Spel1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 12:20
Bet Victor1.29I 77.52%NM 71.10%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 15:19
LiveScore Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 70.65%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -14.47%E -2.73%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-15 12:20
PlayUp1.28I 78.13%NM 70.70%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.24%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-15 15:25
SportsBet1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -11.00%E -8.80%K -44.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 15:20
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -11.00%E -8.80%K -44.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -5.02%E -0.670%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 15:20
Codere (IT)1.32I 75.76%NM 71.51%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.76%EV -6.29%E -0.850%K -0.983%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.17%E -0.529%K -0.634%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-15 15:20
GTbets1.32I 75.76%NM 70.52%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%7.38I 13.55%NM 12.61%EV -6.54%E -0.887%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.52I 18.12%NM 16.86%EV -10.92%E -1.98%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-15 12:20
BetMGM1.33I 75.19%NM 70.68%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -8.19%E -1.13%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 12:20
BetAnything1.29I 77.52%NM 71.31%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.69%EV -8.19%E -1.13%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 15:25
NordicBet1.31I 76.34%NM 70.70%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.05%EV -10.09%E -1.42%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -8.01%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 15:20
Betsson1.31I 76.34%NM 70.70%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.05%EV -10.09%E -1.42%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -8.01%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 15:20
Unibet (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 15:20
BetUS1.30I 76.92%NM 70.83%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 15:25
Bovada1.30I 76.92%NM 70.53%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -9.63%E -1.72%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-15 15:19
Fanatics1.29I 77.52%NM 70.99%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -7.21%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-15 07:50
888sport1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Mr Green (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 08:10
888sport (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 08:10
William Hill1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Betway1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 05:49
Everygame1.28I 78.13%NM 70.64%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-15 15:19
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.89%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.18%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-15 15:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 68.66%EV -11.00%E -8.80%K -44.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.26%EV -11.36%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.07%EV -27.38%E -6.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-15 15:20
NetBet (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 70.71%EV -12.43%E -10.10%K -54.03%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.88%EV -14.52%E -2.15%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.41%EV -14.47%E -2.73%K -3.36%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-15 15:20
PMU (FR)1.18I 84.75%NM 71.11%EV -15.99%E -13.55%K -88.81%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.43%EV -14.52%E -2.15%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.45%EV -17.70%E -3.47%K -4.32%G +0.000%19.2%2026-03-15 15:25
Betclic (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 70.05%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.47%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.48%EV -16.42%E -2.49%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.47%EV -12.85%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-15 15:21
Winamax (DE)1.29I 77.52%NM 70.57%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.43%EV -4.78%E -0.811%K -0.977%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-15 15:20
Coral1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Neds1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -7.44%E -5.72%K -24.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -15.27%E -2.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 07:50
Parions Sport (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 69.69%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.62%EV -17.69%E -2.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.70%EV -14.47%E -2.73%K -3.36%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-15 15:20
BoyleSports1.29I 77.52%NM 68.99%EV -8.15%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -24.02%E -4.00%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-15 15:20
Winamax (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 69.32%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -24.02%E -4.00%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.01%EV -11.24%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-15 15:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.30%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.24%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-03-15 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.30%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.24%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-03-15 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.30%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.24%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-03-15 15:15
Smarkets1.35I 74.07%NM 73.11%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92%1.3%2026-03-15 15:10
Matchbook1.34I 74.63%NM 73.08%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.13%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.79%2.1%2026-03-15 15:25