Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Luzern v FC Basel

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Luzern (Local)

Prediction 41.18%2.43fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.76%41.12%41.19%41.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.222.202.3450.00%45.09%45.45%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Basel (Visit)

Prediction 33.81%2.96fair odd
EV -0.251%
Edge -0.085%
Kelly -0.129%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.62%33.86%33.78%35.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.712.752.9540.00%36.87%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.01%4.00fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -0.968%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.16%25.02%25.02%26.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.643.653.8530.77%27.44%27.40%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Luzern (Local): 41.18%; FC Basel (Visit): 33.81%; Draw: 25.01%. For FC Basel (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -0.251%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.30%EV -3.64%E -1.55%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.21%EV -1.60%E -0.551%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.50%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-22 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.23%EV -3.64%E -1.55%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.70%EV -0.251%E -0.085%K -0.129%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.07%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-22 14:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.23%EV -3.64%E -1.55%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.70%EV -0.251%E -0.085%K -0.129%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.07%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-22 15:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.97%EV -4.87%E -2.11%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -6.23%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-22 14:59
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.34%EV -5.28%E -2.30%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -3.73%E -0.968%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-22 14:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -5.28%E -2.30%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.23%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-22 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.28%E -2.30%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 15:20
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.76%EV -5.28%E -2.30%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.86%EV -13.78%E -5.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -6.23%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-22 15:20
GTbets🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.18%EV -5.70%E -2.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.80%EV -5.66%E -2.03%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.02%EV -5.73%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 15:20
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.60%EV -6.11%E -2.68%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.03%EV -8.03%E -2.95%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-22 14:59
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.60%EV -6.11%E -2.68%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.03%EV -8.03%E -2.95%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-22 14:59
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.13%EV -6.52%E -2.87%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.71%EV -6.34%E -2.29%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.17%EV -7.23%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-22 15:24
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -3.63%E -1.27%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -4.98%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 15:05
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 15:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.62%EV -3.29%E -1.15%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 15:19
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.23%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -4.98%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-22 15:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-22 14:59
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -4.98%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 15:19
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -11.41%E -4.35%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.98%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-22 15:20
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -11.41%E -4.35%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.98%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-22 15:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -11.41%E -4.35%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.98%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-22 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -11.41%E -4.35%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.98%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-22 15:20
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-22 14:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-22 15:00
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.28%EV -7.34%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.20%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -11.23%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-22 15:20
Bovada🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.19%EV -7.76%E -3.46%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.19%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-22 15:19
BetUS🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.19%EV -7.76%E -3.46%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.19%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-22 15:20
BetAnything🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.19%EV -7.76%E -3.46%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.19%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-22 15:19
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -6.23%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-22 15:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.24%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-22 14:59
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-22 15:20
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-22 15:20
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-22 15:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.86%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.18%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-22 15:04
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.86%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.18%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-22 15:05
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.80%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.26%EV -11.41%E -4.35%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-22 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.80%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.26%EV -11.41%E -4.35%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-22 15:05
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.57%EV -9.40%E -4.27%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.93%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-22 14:59
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:44
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:45
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:45
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:45
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:45
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:45
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:44
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -10.23%E -4.69%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.95%EV -10.64%E -4.90%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.10%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-22 14:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.15%EV -10.64%E -4.90%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.70%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.23%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-22 15:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.23%EV -11.46%E -5.33%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.45%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-22 15:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.84%EV -11.46%E -5.33%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.43%EV -13.78%E -5.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -11.23%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-22 14:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.37%EV -13.52%E -6.44%K -12.29%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.81%EV -13.10%E -5.10%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000%15.1%2026-02-22 15:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.22%EV -13.52%E -6.44%K -12.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.79%EV -15.47%E -6.19%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.99%EV -18.73%E -5.76%K -8.32%G +0.000%18.4%2026-02-22 15:25
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.57%EV -15.58%E -7.60%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.09%EV -15.47%E -6.19%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.35%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000%17.4%2026-02-22 15:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.56%EV -17.64%E -8.82%K -17.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.25%EV -15.47%E -6.19%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -17.48%E -5.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%20.3%2026-02-22 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.68%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-02-22 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.68%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-02-22 15:20
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-02-22 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.41%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.04%1.1%2026-02-22 15:20
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.57%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.60%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.84%1.9%2026-02-22 15:20