Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lugano v FC Luzern

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lugano (Local)

Prediction 43.96%2.27fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.35%44.08%43.96%46.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.062.052.2152.63%48.61%48.78%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Luzern (Visit)

Prediction 29.92%3.34fair odd
EV +0.221%
Edge +0.066%
Kelly +0.094%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.34%29.79%29.92%31.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.123.103.3535.71%32.02%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.12%3.83fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.546%
Kelly -0.744%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.04%26.14%26.12%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.483.503.7533.33%28.70%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Lugano (Local): 43.96%; FC Luzern (Visit): 29.92%; Draw: 26.12%. For FC Luzern (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.221%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.37%EV -12.95%E -6.54%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 19:09
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:10
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
LeoVegas🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.89%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.67%EV -0.677%E -0.204%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.89%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.67%EV -0.677%E -0.204%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -1.27%E -0.386%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 19:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.25%EV -13.83%E -7.06%K -14.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -1.27%E -0.386%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.28%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-07 19:10
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -2.77%E -0.853%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -2.05%E -0.546%K -0.744%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.30%EV -6.36%E -2.99%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.27%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 19:10
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -4.27%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 14:39
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -4.27%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:12
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.75%EV -2.84%E -1.29%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.40%EV -4.86%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV -2.31%E -0.617%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 19:25
GTbets🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.74%EV -5.04%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.09%EV -6.06%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.17%EV -5.70%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 19:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.78%EV -6.36%E -2.99%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -6.66%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -7.53%E -2.13%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 19:10
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.24%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -4.66%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:25
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 19:09
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.15%EV -8.56%E -4.11%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 19:05
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.15%EV -8.56%E -4.11%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 19:05
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 18:09
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-07 19:14
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -5.92%E -2.77%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.26%EV -7.56%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.05%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 19:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.45%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -8.75%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-07 19:04
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -8.75%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-07 19:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -2.05%E -0.546%K -0.744%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 19:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 19:15
BetAnything🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 19:15
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:05
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:20
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:20
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 19:08
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-07 19:15
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-07 19:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-07 14:39
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-07 14:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-07 14:40
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-07 14:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 44.47%EV -12.52%E -6.29%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-07 19:05
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -11.75%E -3.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.90%EV -12.95%E -6.54%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.77%EV -12.64%E -4.33%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.34%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-07 19:09
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.79%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-07 19:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-07 19:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.90%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.28%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-07 19:04
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.90%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.28%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-07 14:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -13.84%E -4.81%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -21.64%E -7.21%K -10.82%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-07 18:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 43.83%EV -16.47%E -8.67%K -18.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.74%EV -16.23%E -5.80%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.43%EV -17.72%E -5.62%K -8.24%G +0.000%20.1%2026-03-07 19:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.44%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%0.5%2026-03-07 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.44%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%0.5%2026-03-07 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.2%2026-03-07 19:15
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.09%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.99%1.3%2026-03-07 19:25
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.16%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14%2.0%2026-03-07 19:25