La escuela de los momios

FC Lugano v FC Luzern

Inicio: 2026-03-07 19:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Lugano (Local)

Predicción 43.96%2.27momio equitativo
EV -2.84%
Ventaja -1.29%
Kelly -2.35%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.35%44.08%43.96%46.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.902.062.052.2152.63%48.61%48.78%45.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Luzern (Visitante)

Predicción 29.92%3.34momio equitativo
EV +0.221%
Ventaja +0.066%
Kelly +0.094%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.34%29.79%29.92%31.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.123.103.3535.71%32.02%32.26%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.12%3.83momio equitativo
EV -2.05%
Ventaja -0.546%
Kelly -0.744%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.04%26.14%26.12%28.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.483.503.7533.33%28.70%28.57%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Virgin Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 46.37%EV -12.95%E -6.54%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 19:09
Unibet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:10
TABtouch1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:10
Unibet (NL)1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
BetRivers1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
Grosvenor1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
LeoVegas1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:10
Svenska Spel1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
ATG (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
betPARX1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -13.39%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV +0.221%E +0.066%K +0.094%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 19:09
LowVig.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 44.89%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.67%EV -0.677%E -0.204%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:04
BetOnline.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 44.89%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.67%EV -0.677%E -0.204%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:04
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -1.27%E -0.386%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 19:05
LiveScore Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 46.25%EV -13.83%E -7.06%K -14.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -1.27%E -0.386%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.28%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-07 19:10
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -2.77%E -0.853%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -2.05%E -0.546%K -0.744%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:05
Codere (IT)2.13I 46.95%NM 44.30%EV -6.36%E -2.99%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.27%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 19:10
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -4.27%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 14:39
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -4.27%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:12
Pinnacle2.21I 45.25%NM 43.75%EV -2.84%E -1.29%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.40%EV -4.86%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV -2.31%E -0.617%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 19:25
GTbets2.16I 46.30%NM 43.74%EV -5.04%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.09%EV -6.06%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.17%EV -5.70%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 19:24
Marathon Bet2.13I 46.95%NM 43.78%EV -6.36%E -2.99%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -6.66%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -7.53%E -2.13%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 19:10
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.24%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -4.66%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:25
BetUS2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 19:09
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.15%EV -8.56%E -4.11%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 19:05
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 44.15%EV -8.56%E -4.11%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 19:05
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 18:09
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-07 19:14
1xBet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -5.92%E -2.77%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.26%EV -7.56%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.05%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 19:14
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.45%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -8.75%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-07 19:04
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -8.75%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-07 19:05
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -2.05%E -0.546%K -0.744%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 19:14
PointsBet (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 19:15
BetAnything2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 19:15
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:05
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:19
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:19
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:20
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:20
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 19:08
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-07 19:15
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-07 19:14
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-07 14:39
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-07 14:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-07 14:40
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-07 14:40
Parions Sport (FR)1.99I 50.25%NM 44.47%EV -12.52%E -6.29%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-07 19:05
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -11.75%E -3.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 19:15
NetBet (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 43.90%EV -12.95%E -6.54%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.77%EV -12.64%E -4.33%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.34%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-07 19:09
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 42.79%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-07 19:15
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.58%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-07 19:15
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.90%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.28%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-07 19:04
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 43.90%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.28%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -11.19%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-07 14:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -13.84%E -4.81%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -21.64%E -7.21%K -10.82%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-07 18:54
PMU (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 43.83%EV -16.47%E -8.67%K -18.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.74%EV -16.23%E -5.80%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.43%EV -17.72%E -5.62%K -8.24%G +0.000%20.1%2026-03-07 19:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.44%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%0.5%2026-03-07 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.44%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%0.5%2026-03-07 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.2%2026-03-07 19:15
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.09%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.99%1.3%2026-03-07 19:25
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.16%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14%2.0%2026-03-07 19:25