La scuola delle quote

FC Lugano v FC Basel

Inizio: 2026-05-17 14:30 UTC

Finale: FC Lugano 4–0 FC Basel

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

58 bookmaker (19 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

FC Lugano (Casa)

Previsione 62.31%1.60quota equa
EV -4.66%
Vantaggio -3.05%
Kelly -8.80%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.53

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
58.69%62.35%62.23%65.67%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.371.481.491.5372.99%67.44%67.11%65.36%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

FC Basel (Trasferta)

Previsione 17.76%5.63quota equa
EV +21.69%
Vantaggio +3.17%
Kelly +3.71%
Crescita +0.804%

ipotizzando la quota massima 6.85

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
13.61%17.65%17.81%19.51%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
4.505.155.206.8522.22%19.43%19.23%14.60%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 19.92%5.02quota equa
EV -0.383%
Vantaggio -0.077%
Kelly -0.096%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 5.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
18.99%20.00%19.96%22.54%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
3.754.544.605.0026.67%22.03%21.74%20.00%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (58 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼PareggioMargineAggiornamento
Marathon Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.67%EV -11.52%E -8.11%K -27.42%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 13.61%EV +21.69%E +3.17%K +3.71%G +0.804%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 14:25
LowVig.ag1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -0.516%E -0.092%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 14:25
BetOnline.ag1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -0.516%E -0.092%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 14:25
BetAnything1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -0.516%E -0.092%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 14:25
NetBet (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 64.27%EV -14.63%E -10.68%K -39.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.72%EV -0.516%E -0.092%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.01%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-17 14:25
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -2.29%E -0.417%K -0.509%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -0.383%E -0.077%K -0.096%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Unibet (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.26%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -2.29%E -0.417%K -0.509%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Pinnacle1.52I 65.79%NM 62.33%EV -5.29%E -3.48%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.49I 18.21%NM 17.26%EV -2.47%E -0.450%K -0.550%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.42%EV -7.56%E -1.63%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 14:25
GTbets1.52I 65.79%NM 61.89%EV -5.29%E -3.48%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.52%EV -4.60%E -0.857%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.59%EV -8.95%E -1.96%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 14:25
Unibet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:24
TABtouch1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Unibet (NL)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Virgin Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Unibet (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Casumo1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Grosvenor1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Svenska Spel1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
betPARX1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
ATG (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
DraftKings1.53I 65.36%NM 61.84%EV -4.66%E -3.05%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV -6.36%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 14:24
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -4.66%E -3.05%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 14:25
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 14:25
PointsBet (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 62.91%EV -8.40%E -5.72%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.62%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 14:25
LeoVegas1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:25
BetRivers1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:20
Bovada1.50I 66.67%NM 61.48%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.56%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:23
BetUS1.50I 66.67%NM 61.48%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.56%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:25
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.78%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV -7.62%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -4.37%E -0.910%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 14:24
LiveScore Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 62.30%EV -9.03%E -6.18%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -7.62%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 14:25
PMU (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.46%EV -9.65%E -6.65%K -21.44%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -7.62%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.13%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 14:25
NordicBet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.05%EV -8.51%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 14:25
Betsson1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.05%EV -8.51%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 14:25
Betclic (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.78%EV -9.65%E -6.65%K -21.44%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -9.40%E -1.84%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -6.36%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:23
1xBet1.51I 66.23%NM 61.90%EV -5.91%E -3.91%K -11.59%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 18.55%EV -10.46%E -2.08%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.55%EV -4.77%E -0.997%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 14:25
BetMGM1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 61.50%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:25
Bet Right1.48I 67.57%NM 61.81%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 14:25
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:25
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:24
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:24
SportsBet1.47I 68.03%NM 61.97%EV -8.40%E -5.72%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:25
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 59.71%EV -5.29%E -3.48%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -18.31%E -4.47%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 14:25
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.03%EV -9.65%E -6.65%K -21.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 14:25
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -10.27%E -7.13%K -23.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Unibet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.05%EV -9.65%E -6.65%K -21.44%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.18%EV -12.06%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.77%EV -9.35%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 14:24
Winamax (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -8.40%E -5.72%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -14.73%E -3.07%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -4.37%E -0.910%K -1.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 59.89%EV -4.66%E -3.05%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -15.62%E -3.29%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.82%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-17 14:25
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 61.14%EV -10.27%E -7.13%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.53%EV -15.62%E -3.29%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.33%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-17 14:24
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 60.31%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -18.28%E -3.97%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 14:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 60.31%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -18.28%E -3.97%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 14:25
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 60.31%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -18.28%E -3.97%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 60.31%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -18.28%E -3.97%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 14:25
Winamax (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -10.27%E -7.13%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -20.06%E -4.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-17 14:25
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 60.51%EV -10.27%E -7.13%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.36%EV -20.06%E -4.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-17 14:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 58.69%EV -10.27%E -7.13%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.78%EV -20.06%E -4.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.54%EV -25.29%E -6.74%K -9.20%G +0.000%18.3%2026-05-17 14:25
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (5)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.20%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.20%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.96%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.38%1.2%2026-05-17 14:25
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 62.96%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.38%1.2%2026-05-17 14:24
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 62.52%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.85%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63%1.9%2026-05-17 14:25