L’École des cotes

FC Lugano v FC Basel

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 14:30 UTC

Score final : FC Lugano 4–0 FC Basel

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

FC Lugano (Local)

Prévision 62.31%1.60cote équitable
EV -4.66%
Avantage -3.05%
Kelly -8.80%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.53

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.69%62.35%62.23%65.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.371.481.491.5372.99%67.44%67.11%65.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

FC Basel (Visiteur)

Prévision 17.76%5.63cote équitable
EV +21.69%
Avantage +3.17%
Kelly +3.71%
Croissance +0.804%

avec la cote maximale 6.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
13.61%17.65%17.81%19.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.155.206.8522.22%19.43%19.23%14.60%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 19.92%5.02cote équitable
EV -0.383%
Avantage -0.077%
Kelly -0.096%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.99%20.00%19.96%22.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.544.605.0026.67%22.03%21.74%20.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Marathon Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.67%EV -11.52%E -8.11%K -27.42%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 13.61%EV +21.69%E +3.17%K +3.71%G +0.804%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 14:25
LowVig.ag1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -0.516%E -0.092%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 14:25
BetOnline.ag1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -0.516%E -0.092%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 14:25
BetAnything1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -0.516%E -0.092%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 14:25
NetBet (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 64.27%EV -14.63%E -10.68%K -39.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.72%EV -0.516%E -0.092%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.01%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-17 14:25
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -2.29%E -0.417%K -0.509%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -0.383%E -0.077%K -0.096%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Unibet (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.26%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -2.29%E -0.417%K -0.509%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Pinnacle1.52I 65.79%NM 62.33%EV -5.29%E -3.48%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.49I 18.21%NM 17.26%EV -2.47%E -0.450%K -0.550%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.42%EV -7.56%E -1.63%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 14:25
GTbets1.52I 65.79%NM 61.89%EV -5.29%E -3.48%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.52%EV -4.60%E -0.857%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.59%EV -8.95%E -1.96%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 14:25
Unibet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:24
TABtouch1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Unibet (NL)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Virgin Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Unibet (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Casumo1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Grosvenor1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Svenska Spel1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
betPARX1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
ATG (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.30%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
DraftKings1.53I 65.36%NM 61.84%EV -4.66%E -3.05%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV -6.36%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 14:24
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -4.66%E -3.05%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 14:25
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 14:25
PointsBet (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 62.91%EV -8.40%E -5.72%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.62%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 14:25
LeoVegas1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:25
BetRivers1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:20
Bovada1.50I 66.67%NM 61.48%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.56%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:23
BetUS1.50I 66.67%NM 61.48%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.56%EV -6.73%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:25
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.78%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV -7.62%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -4.37%E -0.910%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 14:24
LiveScore Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 62.30%EV -9.03%E -6.18%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -7.62%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 14:25
PMU (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.46%EV -9.65%E -6.65%K -21.44%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -7.62%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.13%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 14:25
NordicBet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.05%EV -8.51%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 14:25
Betsson1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -7.16%E -4.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.05%EV -8.51%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 14:25
Betclic (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.78%EV -9.65%E -6.65%K -21.44%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -9.40%E -1.84%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -6.36%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:23
1xBet1.51I 66.23%NM 61.90%EV -5.91%E -3.91%K -11.59%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 18.55%EV -10.46%E -2.08%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.55%EV -4.77%E -0.997%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 14:25
BetMGM1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 14:25
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 61.50%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 14:25
Bet Right1.48I 67.57%NM 61.81%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 14:25
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:25
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:24
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -6.53%E -4.36%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:24
SportsBet1.47I 68.03%NM 61.97%EV -8.40%E -5.72%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -8.35%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 14:25
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 59.71%EV -5.29%E -3.48%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -18.31%E -4.47%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 14:25
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.03%EV -9.65%E -6.65%K -21.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 14:25
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -10.27%E -7.13%K -23.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Unibet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.05%EV -9.65%E -6.65%K -21.44%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.18%EV -12.06%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.77%EV -9.35%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 14:24
Winamax (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -8.40%E -5.72%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -14.73%E -3.07%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -4.37%E -0.910%K -1.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 14:25
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 59.89%EV -4.66%E -3.05%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -15.62%E -3.29%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.82%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-17 14:25
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 61.14%EV -10.27%E -7.13%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.53%EV -15.62%E -3.29%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.33%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-17 14:24
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 60.31%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -18.28%E -3.97%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 14:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 60.31%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -18.28%E -3.97%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 14:25
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 60.31%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -18.28%E -3.97%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 60.31%EV -7.78%E -5.26%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -18.28%E -3.97%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -12.34%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 14:25
Winamax (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -10.27%E -7.13%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -20.06%E -4.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-17 14:25
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 60.51%EV -10.27%E -7.13%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.36%EV -20.06%E -4.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-17 14:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 58.69%EV -10.27%E -7.13%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.78%EV -20.06%E -4.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.54%EV -25.29%E -6.74%K -9.20%G +0.000%18.3%2026-05-17 14:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.20%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.20%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-05-17 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.96%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.38%1.2%2026-05-17 14:25
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 62.96%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.38%1.2%2026-05-17 14:24
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 62.52%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.85%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63%1.9%2026-05-17 14:25