L’École des cotes

FC Basel v FC Thun

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-02 18:30 UTC

Score final : FC Basel 3–1 FC Thun

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (18 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

FC Basel (Local)

Prévision 34.72%2.88cote équitable
EV -2.09%
Avantage -0.741%
Kelly -1.15%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.82

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.39%34.88%34.66%37.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.432.602.622.8241.15%38.53%38.17%35.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

FC Thun (Visiteur)

Prévision 39.65%2.52cote équitable
EV -1.68%
Avantage -0.675%
Kelly -1.13%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.48

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.71%39.57%39.60%40.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.152.342.372.4846.51%42.66%42.19%40.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.63%3.90cote équitable
EV -0.030%
Avantage -0.008%
Kelly -0.010%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.45%25.55%25.74%27.12%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.643.603.9030.30%27.47%27.78%25.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.82I 35.46%NM 34.29%EV -2.09%E -0.741%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.79%EV -3.66%E -1.51%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.92%EV -4.39%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-02 18:25
1xBet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -2.79%E -0.995%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 18:20
Marathon Bet2.76I 36.23%NM 33.79%EV -4.17%E -1.51%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -7.62%E -3.27%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.19%EV -8.75%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:25
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.67%EV -4.52%E -1.64%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.57%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -1.31%E -0.341%K -0.460%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 18:20
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.52%E -1.64%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -4.85%E -2.02%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 18:10
Bovada2.74I 36.50%NM 33.69%EV -4.87%E -1.78%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.31%EV -9.21%E -4.02%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -9.00%E -2.54%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 18:25
GTbets2.73I 36.63%NM 35.05%EV -5.22%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.59%EV -1.68%E -0.675%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.36%EV -6.95%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-02 18:10
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.54%EV -2.47%E -1.00%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 18:25
LowVig.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.54%EV -2.47%E -1.00%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 18:25
BetAnything2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.54%EV -2.47%E -1.00%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 18:25
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -4.85%E -2.02%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 18:05
Unibet (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -3.87%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:25
PointsBet (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -5.16%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 18:25
BetUS2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -7.62%E -3.27%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.54%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 18:15
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:05
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:04
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:05
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:05
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 34.66%EV -6.95%E -2.59%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.53%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 18:05
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 34.66%EV -6.95%E -2.59%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.53%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 18:05
Bet Right2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%EV -7.99%E -3.02%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 18:26
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -7.99%E -3.02%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 18:06
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -7.99%E -3.02%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -11.56%E -3.35%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 18:05
PlayUp2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -7.99%E -3.02%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 18:05
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 35.72%EV -9.03%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.32%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -3.87%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 18:25
betfred_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.03%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 18:20
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -9.03%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.54%EV -10.79%E -4.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -5.16%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 18:25
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -9.03%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 18:10
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -9.03%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 18:10
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -2.86%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 17:55
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.87%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -10.79%E -4.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 18:05
Betr (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -10.79%E -4.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 18:20
Unibet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -12.78%E -5.81%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-02 18:10
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.08%EV -11.59%E -5.20%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.54%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 18:10
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.26%EV -10.79%E -4.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -15.41%E -4.67%K -6.70%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-02 18:10
NetBet (FR)2.52I 39.68%NM 34.64%EV -12.51%E -4.96%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.68%EV -12.78%E -5.81%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.68%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-02 18:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 17:55
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 17:55
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -6.04%E -2.55%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -6.04%E -2.55%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -12.78%E -5.81%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-02 18:10
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -14.76%E -6.86%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-02 18:05
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Virgin Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
LeoVegas2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
PMU (FR)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.63%EV -15.63%E -6.43%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.92%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 12:05
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.63%EV -15.63%E -6.43%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.92%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 12:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Matchbook2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Smarkets2.86I 34.97%NM 34.18%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.74%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.07%2.3%2026-05-02 18:26