La escuela de los momios

FC Basel v FC Thun

Inicio: 2026-05-02 18:30 UTC

Final: FC Basel 3–1 FC Thun

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Basel (Local)

Predicción 34.72%2.88momio equitativo
EV -2.09%
Ventaja -0.741%
Kelly -1.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.39%34.88%34.66%37.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.432.602.622.8241.15%38.53%38.17%35.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Thun (Visitante)

Predicción 39.65%2.52momio equitativo
EV -1.68%
Ventaja -0.675%
Kelly -1.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.71%39.57%39.60%40.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.342.372.4846.51%42.66%42.19%40.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.63%3.90momio equitativo
EV -0.030%
Ventaja -0.008%
Kelly -0.010%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.45%25.55%25.74%27.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.643.603.9030.30%27.47%27.78%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.82I 35.46%NM 34.29%EV -2.09%E -0.741%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.79%EV -3.66%E -1.51%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.92%EV -4.39%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-02 18:25
1xBet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -2.79%E -0.995%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 18:20
Marathon Bet2.76I 36.23%NM 33.79%EV -4.17%E -1.51%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -7.62%E -3.27%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.19%EV -8.75%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:25
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.67%EV -4.52%E -1.64%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.57%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -1.31%E -0.341%K -0.460%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 18:20
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.52%E -1.64%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -4.85%E -2.02%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 18:10
Bovada2.74I 36.50%NM 33.69%EV -4.87%E -1.78%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.31%EV -9.21%E -4.02%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -9.00%E -2.54%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 18:25
GTbets2.73I 36.63%NM 35.05%EV -5.22%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.59%EV -1.68%E -0.675%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.36%EV -6.95%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-02 18:10
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.54%EV -2.47%E -1.00%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 18:25
LowVig.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.54%EV -2.47%E -1.00%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 18:25
BetAnything2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.54%EV -2.47%E -1.00%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 18:25
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -4.85%E -2.02%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 18:05
Unibet (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -3.87%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:25
PointsBet (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -5.16%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 18:25
BetUS2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -7.62%E -3.27%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -9.00%E -2.54%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 18:15
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:05
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:04
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:05
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:05
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 34.66%EV -6.95%E -2.59%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.53%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 18:05
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 34.66%EV -6.95%E -2.59%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.53%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 18:05
Bet Right2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%EV -7.99%E -3.02%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 18:26
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -7.99%E -3.02%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 18:06
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -7.99%E -3.02%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -11.56%E -3.35%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 18:05
PlayUp2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -7.99%E -3.02%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 18:05
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 35.72%EV -9.03%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.32%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -3.87%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 18:25
betfred_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.03%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 18:20
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -9.03%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.54%EV -10.79%E -4.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -5.16%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 18:25
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -9.03%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 18:10
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -9.03%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -8.81%E -3.83%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 18:10
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -2.86%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 17:55
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.87%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -10.79%E -4.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 18:05
Betr (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -10.79%E -4.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 18:20
Unibet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -12.78%E -5.81%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-02 18:10
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.08%EV -11.59%E -5.20%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.54%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 18:10
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.26%EV -10.79%E -4.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -15.41%E -4.67%K -6.70%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-02 18:10
NetBet (FR)2.52I 39.68%NM 34.64%EV -12.51%E -4.96%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.68%EV -12.78%E -5.81%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.68%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-02 18:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 17:55
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 17:55
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -6.04%E -2.55%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -6.04%E -2.55%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -12.78%E -5.81%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-02 18:10
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -13.20%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -14.76%E -6.86%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-02 18:05
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Virgin Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
LeoVegas2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -14.94%E -6.10%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -5.64%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 12:05
PMU (FR)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.63%EV -15.63%E -6.43%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.92%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 12:05
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.63%EV -15.63%E -6.43%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.92%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 12:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Matchbook2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Smarkets2.86I 34.97%NM 34.18%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.74%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.07%2.3%2026-05-02 18:26