Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Örebro SK v IFK Värnamo

Kickoff: 2026-08-03 17:05 UTC

Final: Örebro SK 1–3 IFK Värnamo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Örebro SK (Local)

Prediction 37.39%2.67fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.487%
Kelly -0.784%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.62%37.52%37.23%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.432.452.6444.44%41.22%40.82%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IFK Värnamo (Visit)

Prediction 34.94%2.86fair odd
EV -0.409%
Edge -0.143%
Kelly -0.221%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.62%34.82%35.01%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.662.652.8540.00%37.55%37.74%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.66%3.61fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -0.907%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.48%27.66%27.76%29.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.353.5032.26%30.20%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Örebro SK (Local): 37.39%; IFK Värnamo (Visit): 34.94%; Draw: 27.66%. For IFK Värnamo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -0.409%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -1.29%E -0.487%K -0.784%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -8.45%E -3.22%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -1.29%E -0.487%K -0.784%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -8.45%E -3.22%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 16:59
BetAnything🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -1.29%E -0.487%K -0.784%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -8.45%E -3.22%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 16:59
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.78%E -1.07%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.25%EV -5.30%E -1.96%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.01%EV -5.67%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 17:00
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -4.65%E -1.82%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -7.40%E -2.79%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 17:00
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -4.65%E -1.82%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -10.89%E -4.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-03 16:59
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -4.65%E -1.82%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -10.89%E -4.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-03 17:00
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.80%EV -5.03%E -1.98%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.95%EV -9.14%E -3.52%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.25%EV -5.11%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-03 17:00
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.14%EV -5.77%E -2.29%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -6.35%E -2.37%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-03 16:45
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.14%EV -5.77%E -2.29%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -6.35%E -2.37%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-03 16:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.76%EV -5.77%E -2.29%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.50%EV -8.80%E -3.37%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -7.60%E -2.28%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-03 16:59
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -6.52%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -5.65%E -2.09%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 16:19
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -6.52%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -10.89%E -4.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-03 16:59
Coolbet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.64%EV -7.64%E -3.09%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -2.16%E -0.770%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -3.18%E -0.907%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 16:54
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -7.40%E -2.79%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-03 16:58
BetUS🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -7.40%E -2.79%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-03 17:00
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -10.89%E -4.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-03 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -10.89%E -4.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -10.09%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-03 17:00
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.31%EV -8.45%E -3.22%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -14.24%E -4.59%K -6.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-03 16:59
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.31%EV -8.45%E -3.22%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -14.24%E -4.59%K -6.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-03 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.31%EV -8.45%E -3.22%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -14.24%E -4.59%K -6.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-03 17:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.31%EV -8.45%E -3.22%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -14.24%E -4.59%K -6.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-03 17:00
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -12.64%E -5.06%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -10.09%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-03 17:00
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -12.64%E -5.06%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-03 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -12.64%E -5.06%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-03 16:55
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -8.39%E -3.42%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -12.64%E -5.06%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-03 16:54
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -10.26%E -4.27%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -8.45%E -3.22%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-03 16:59
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.47%EV -10.26%E -4.27%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -10.89%E -4.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-03 16:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -12.13%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -0.409%E -0.143%K -0.221%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -12.13%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -0.409%E -0.143%K -0.221%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -12.13%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -0.409%E -0.143%K -0.221%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 16:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -12.13%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -0.409%E -0.143%K -0.221%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 16:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -12.13%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -5.65%E -2.09%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-03 16:44
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.23%EV -12.13%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -12.64%E -5.06%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -12.86%E -4.08%K -5.98%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-03 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -13.25%E -5.71%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -2.16%E -0.770%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 16:40
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -13.25%E -5.71%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -2.16%E -0.770%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 16:40
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -13.25%E -5.71%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -2.16%E -0.770%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 16:39
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -13.25%E -5.71%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -2.16%E -0.770%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 16:39
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -13.25%E -5.71%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -2.16%E -0.770%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 16:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -13.25%E -5.71%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -2.16%E -0.770%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 16:40
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -13.25%E -5.71%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -2.16%E -0.770%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 16:40
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -14.00%E -6.09%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -2.16%E -0.770%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-03 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -14.00%E -6.09%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -7.40%E -2.79%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-03 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -14.00%E -6.09%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -7.40%E -2.79%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-03 16:44
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -14.00%E -6.09%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -8.45%E -3.22%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -5.94%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-03 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.52%EV -14.75%E -6.47%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.76%EV -3.90%E -1.42%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.72%EV -10.09%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-03 16:40
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.42%EV -15.87%E -7.05%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.57%EV -12.64%E -5.06%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.01%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-03 16:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.84%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.53%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63%0.5%2026-08-03 17:00
Matchbook2.70I 37.04%NM 36.84%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.53%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63%0.5%2026-08-03 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.02%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-03 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.02%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-03 16:45

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