Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mjällby AIF v Hammarby IF

2026-10-25 15:30 UTC — Allsvenskan - Sweden

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (9 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mjällby AIF (Local)

Predicción 17.24%5.80momio equitativo
EV +16.35%
Ventaja +2.42%
Kelly +2.84%
Crecimiento +0.465%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.45%17.22%17.27%18.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.705.555.506.7521.28%18.00%18.18%14.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hammarby IF (Visitante)

Predicción 61.15%1.64momio equitativo
EV -4.61%
Ventaja -2.96%
Kelly -8.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.91%61.12%61.03%65.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.391.481.501.5671.94%67.78%66.67%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.62%4.63momio equitativo
EV +2.67%
Ventaja +0.563%
Kelly +0.713%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.52%21.66%21.70%22.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.284.254.7525.64%23.34%23.53%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Mjällby AIF (Local): 17.24%; Hammarby IF (Visitante): 61.15%; Empate: 21.62%. Para Mjällby AIF (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.80. 10 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 6.75, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +16.35%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.45%EV +16.35%E +2.42%K +2.84%G +0.465%1.50I 66.67%NM 65.02%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.53%EV +2.67%E +0.563%K +0.713%G +0.019%2.5%2026-10-18 15:50
ATG (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.45%EV +16.35%E +2.42%K +2.84%G +0.465%1.50I 66.67%NM 65.02%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.53%EV +2.67%E +0.563%K +0.713%G +0.019%2.5%2026-10-18 15:50
Svenska Spel🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.45%EV +16.35%E +2.42%K +2.84%G +0.465%1.50I 66.67%NM 65.02%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.53%EV +2.67%E +0.563%K +0.713%G +0.019%2.5%2026-10-18 15:50
Unibet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV +7.74%E +1.24%K +1.47%G +0.114%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.50%EV -11.95%E -8.30%K -27.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -2.73%E -0.607%K -0.780%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 15:50
Casumo🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV +7.74%E +1.24%K +1.47%G +0.114%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.50%EV -11.95%E -8.30%K -27.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -2.73%E -0.607%K -0.780%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 15:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV +7.74%E +1.24%K +1.47%G +0.114%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.50%EV -11.95%E -8.30%K -27.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -2.73%E -0.607%K -0.780%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 15:50
Unibet (NL)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV +7.74%E +1.24%K +1.47%G +0.114%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.50%EV -11.95%E -8.30%K -27.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -2.73%E -0.607%K -0.780%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 15:50
betPARX🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV +7.74%E +1.24%K +1.47%G +0.114%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.50%EV -11.95%E -8.30%K -27.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -2.73%E -0.607%K -0.780%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 15:49
Virgin Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV +3.43%E +0.571%K +0.685%G +0.023%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -11.95%E -8.30%K -27.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.26%EV -7.05%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 15:50
Grosvenor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV +3.43%E +0.571%K +0.685%G +0.023%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.50%EV -12.56%E -8.78%K -29.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -8.13%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-18 15:50
BetRivers🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.51%EV -0.022%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.33%EV -13.17%E -9.28%K -31.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.16%EV -8.13%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-18 15:49
TABtouch🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.40%EV -0.022%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.34%EV -13.78%E -9.78%K -33.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -9.21%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 15:50
PMU (FR)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.33%EV -0.022%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.50%EV -14.39%E -10.28%K -35.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.17%EV -9.21%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-18 15:50
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.33%EV -0.022%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.50%EV -14.39%E -10.28%K -35.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.17%EV -9.21%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-18 15:50
FanDuel🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.48%EV -1.75%E -0.306%K -0.371%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -2.73%E -0.607%K -0.780%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 17:07
LeoVegas🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -5.19%E -0.944%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.66%EV -7.06%E -4.64%K -13.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.89%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 17:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -5.19%E -0.944%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -2.73%E -0.607%K -0.780%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 17:09
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -5.19%E -0.944%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.51%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -8.13%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-18 16:24
SportsBet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -5.19%E -0.944%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%EV -9.50%E -6.42%K -19.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -4.89%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 17:10
Betsson🎯5.46I 18.32%NM 17.39%EV -5.88%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.88%EV -4.61%E -2.96%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.73%EV -5.54%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 16:39
Pinnacle🎯5.44I 18.38%NM 17.27%EV -6.23%E -1.14%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.02%EV -5.83%E -3.79%K -10.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.40%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 17:35
NordicBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -8.64%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.81%EV -7.06%E -4.64%K -13.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -8.13%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 16:39
1xBet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -9.50%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.64%EV -5.83%E -3.79%K -10.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -6.40%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 17:14
Betway🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -9.50%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.27%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -6.40%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 16:24
Bet Right🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.44%EV -9.50%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.54%EV -8.13%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-18 17:09
Betclic (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.24%EV -12.09%E -2.37%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.05%EV -11.95%E -8.30%K -27.16%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.71%EV -12.46%E -3.08%K -4.08%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-18 16:24
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -13.81%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -5.22%E -3.37%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.54%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-18 17:19
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.81%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.45%E -4.21%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.54%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-18 17:14
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.81%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.45%E -4.21%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.54%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-18 17:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.81%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.45%E -4.21%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.54%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-18 17:15
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -13.81%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.21%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-18 17:09
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -13.81%E -2.76%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -11.95%E -8.30%K -27.16%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -6.40%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-18 17:09
Unibet (FR)🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 17.15%EV -14.67%E -2.96%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 61.08%EV -15.01%E -10.80%K -38.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.77%EV -15.70%E -4.03%K -5.41%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-18 16:25
Winamax (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -15.54%E -3.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 60.62%EV -11.34%E -7.82%K -25.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -11.38%E -2.77%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-18 17:24
BoyleSports🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -18.12%E -3.81%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -13.54%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-18 16:39
Sky Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.13%EV -18.12%E -3.81%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 59.79%EV -11.95%E -8.30%K -27.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%EV -15.70%E -4.03%K -5.41%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-18 17:44
Winamax (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.31%EV -18.98%E -4.04%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 60.18%EV -12.56%E -8.78%K -29.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.51%EV -13.54%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-18 17:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎5.10I 19.61%NM 17.26%1.45I 68.97%NM 60.72%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%13.6%2026-10-18 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-18 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-18 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-18 16:40
Arbitraje (9 combinaciones) +0.03%Unibet (SE) 6.75 (14.8%) / Betsson 1.56 (64.1%) / Unibet (SE) 4.75 (21.1%)Ver las 9 combinaciones
Mjällby AIF (Local)Hammarby IF (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Unibet (SE)🎯 6.75 (14.8%)Betsson🎯 1.56 (64.1%)Unibet (SE)🎯 4.75 (21.1%)+0.030%
Unibet (SE)🎯 6.75 (14.8%)Betsson🎯 1.56 (64.1%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.75 (21.1%)+0.030%
Unibet (SE)🎯 6.75 (14.8%)Betsson🎯 1.56 (64.1%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.75 (21.1%)+0.030%
ATG (SE)🎯 6.75 (14.8%)Betsson🎯 1.56 (64.1%)Unibet (SE)🎯 4.75 (21.1%)+0.030%
ATG (SE)🎯 6.75 (14.8%)Betsson🎯 1.56 (64.1%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.75 (21.1%)+0.030%
ATG (SE)🎯 6.75 (14.8%)Betsson🎯 1.56 (64.1%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.75 (21.1%)+0.030%
Svenska Spel🎯 6.75 (14.8%)Betsson🎯 1.56 (64.1%)Unibet (SE)🎯 4.75 (21.1%)+0.030%
Svenska Spel🎯 6.75 (14.8%)Betsson🎯 1.56 (64.1%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.75 (21.1%)+0.030%
Svenska Spel🎯 6.75 (14.8%)Betsson🎯 1.56 (64.1%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.75 (21.1%)+0.030%