Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Malmo FF v Degerfors IF

Inicio: 2026-08-09 12:00 UTC

Final: Malmo FF 1–2 Degerfors IF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Malmo FF (Local)

Predicción 63.94%1.56momio equitativo
EV -3.45%
Ventaja -2.28%
Kelly -6.76%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.32%64.01%63.94%67.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.321.431.441.5175.76%69.74%69.44%66.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Degerfors IF (Visitante)

Predicción 14.80%6.76momio equitativo
EV +11.02%
Ventaja +1.47%
Kelly +1.69%
Crecimiento +0.187%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.98%14.78%14.74%16.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.506.336.257.5018.18%15.81%16.00%13.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.25%4.70momio equitativo
EV +4.15%
Ventaja +0.846%
Kelly +1.06%
Crecimiento +0.044%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.87%21.21%21.32%22.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.364.304.9025.00%22.95%23.26%20.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Malmo FF (Local): 63.94%; Degerfors IF (Visitante): 14.80%; Empate: 21.25%. Para Degerfors IF (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.76. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +11.02%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.15%EV -7.28%E -5.02%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.98%EV +11.02%E +1.47%K +1.69%G +0.187%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87%EV +4.15%E +0.846%K +1.06%G +0.044%2.7%2026-08-09 11:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.15%EV -7.28%E -5.02%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.98%EV +11.02%E +1.47%K +1.69%G +0.187%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87%EV +4.15%E +0.846%K +1.06%G +0.044%2.7%2026-08-09 11:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.15%EV -7.28%E -5.02%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.98%EV +11.02%E +1.47%K +1.69%G +0.187%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87%EV +4.15%E +0.846%K +1.06%G +0.044%2.7%2026-08-09 11:25
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +3.62%E +0.517%K +0.603%G +0.022%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -4.35%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 11:55
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -10.48%E -7.49%K -26.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV +3.62%E +0.517%K +0.603%G +0.022%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -4.35%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 11:54
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.83%EV -9.20%E -6.48%K -21.91%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -0.085%E -0.013%K -0.015%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -2.23%E -0.485%K -0.619%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.83%EV -9.20%E -6.48%K -21.91%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -0.085%E -0.013%K -0.015%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -2.23%E -0.485%K -0.619%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.72%EV -6.00%E -4.08%K -12.77%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.98%EV -0.825%E -0.123%K -0.145%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:55
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.72%EV -6.00%E -4.08%K -12.77%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.98%EV -0.825%E -0.123%K -0.145%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.84%EV -9.20%E -6.48%K -21.91%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.74%EV -0.825%E -0.123%K -0.145%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -8.61%E -2.00%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 11:25
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.30%EV -4.09%E -2.72%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.59I 15.17%NM 14.41%EV -2.45%E -0.372%K -0.439%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.29%EV -9.46%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 11:55
Coolbet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.63%EV -3.45%E -2.28%K -6.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.78%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.59%EV -5.42%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 11:50
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.06%EV -4.72%E -3.17%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.26%EV -4.57%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-09 11:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.24%EV -5.36%E -3.62%K -11.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -4.35%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:55
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.24%EV -5.36%E -3.62%K -11.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -4.35%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:34
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -7.28%E -5.02%K -16.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -4.35%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 11:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -9.20%E -6.48%K -21.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -4.35%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 03:55
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -10.48%E -7.49%K -26.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -4.35%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -10.48%E -7.49%K -26.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -4.35%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -10.48%E -7.49%K -26.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -4.35%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:24
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -10.48%E -7.49%K -26.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -4.35%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.41%EV -9.20%E -6.48%K -21.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.52%EV -9.67%E -2.27%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 03:55
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.73%EV -9.84%E -6.98%K -24.00%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -8.61%E -2.00%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 11:54
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -10.48%E -7.49%K -26.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -7.97%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 03:54
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -10.48%E -7.49%K -26.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -10.48%E -7.49%K -26.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -3.79%E -0.582%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 11:50
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -11.76%E -8.52%K -30.94%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -5.27%E -0.823%K -0.975%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -6.48%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.57%EV -5.36%E -3.62%K -11.18%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -7.49%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -6.48%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 11:50
GTbets🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.22%EV -6.00%E -4.08%K -12.77%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.87%EV -7.49%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 21.92%EV -9.88%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 11:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.89%EV -9.20%E -6.48%K -21.91%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -7.49%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 03:55
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -11.76%E -8.52%K -30.94%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -7.49%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -7.54%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.19%EV -13.04%E -9.59%K -36.21%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.19%EV -7.49%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.62%EV -8.61%E -2.00%K -2.61%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 11:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.19%EV -13.04%E -9.59%K -36.21%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.19%EV -7.49%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.62%EV -8.61%E -2.00%K -2.61%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 11:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.33%EV -4.72%E -3.17%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.22%EV -8.23%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -6.48%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 11:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.33%EV -4.72%E -3.17%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.22%EV -8.23%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -6.48%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 11:35
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.33%EV -4.72%E -3.17%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.22%EV -8.23%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -6.48%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 11:45
BetAnything🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.33%EV -4.72%E -3.17%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.22%EV -8.23%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -6.48%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 11:35
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.17%EV -5.36%E -3.62%K -11.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -6.48%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 06:05
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 11:05
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 11:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 11:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 11:10
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 11:55
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 11:54
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -7.28%E -5.02%K -16.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -14.98%E -3.75%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 11:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.83%EV -9.84%E -6.98%K -24.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.18%EV -9.67%E -2.27%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:54
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -10.48%E -7.49%K -26.20%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -14.98%E -3.75%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 11:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 65.18%EV -15.60%E -11.81%K -48.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.34%EV -11.19%E -1.86%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.48%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-09 11:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.93%EV -8.56%E -5.99%K -19.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.65%EV -14.89%E -2.59%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.29%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.99%EV -15.63%E -2.74%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -6.48%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 11:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.14%EV -9.20%E -6.48%K -21.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -17.11%E -3.05%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.85%EV -8.61%E -2.00%K -2.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:54
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -18.59%E -3.38%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-09 06:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -18.59%E -3.38%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-09 06:10
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -18.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -18.59%E -3.38%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-09 06:10
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -10.48%E -7.49%K -26.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -18.59%E -3.38%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -10.73%E -2.55%K -3.35%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-09 11:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.66%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%0.7%2026-08-09 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.38%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%1.1%2026-08-09 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.38%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%1.1%2026-08-09 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.38%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%1.1%2026-08-09 11:55
Smarkets◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.30%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.26%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.44%1.9%2026-08-09 11:55