Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Malmo FF v Degerfors IF

2026-08-09 12:00 UTC — Allsvenskan - Sweden

Resultado del partido

36 corredores (8 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Malmo FF (Local)

Predicción 61.33%1.63momio equitativo
EV -5.55%
Ventaja -3.60%
Kelly -10.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.95%61.23%61.42%63.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.381.491.501.5472.46%67.21%66.67%64.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Degerfors IF (Visitante)

Predicción 16.64%6.01momio equitativo
EV +6.50%
Ventaja +1.02%
Kelly +1.20%
Crecimiento +0.078%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.21%16.69%16.53%18.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.605.535.506.4021.74%18.09%18.18%15.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.03%4.54momio equitativo
EV +1.33%
Ventaja +0.288%
Kelly +0.368%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.16%22.08%22.05%22.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.184.204.6026.32%23.94%23.81%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Malmo FF (Local): 61.33%; Degerfors IF (Visitante): 16.64%; Empate: 22.03%. Para Degerfors IF (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 6.01. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 6.40, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +6.50%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 63.63%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.21%EV +6.50%E +1.02%K +1.20%G +0.078%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.16%EV +1.33%E +0.288%K +0.368%G +0.005%2.7%2026-08-02 14:35
ATG (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 63.63%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.21%EV +6.50%E +1.02%K +1.20%G +0.078%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.16%EV +1.33%E +0.288%K +0.368%G +0.005%2.7%2026-08-02 14:40
Svenska Spel1.53I 65.36%NM 63.63%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.21%EV +6.50%E +1.02%K +1.20%G +0.078%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.16%EV +1.33%E +0.288%K +0.368%G +0.005%2.7%2026-08-02 14:40
Pinnacle1.50I 66.67%NM 62.57%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.92I 16.89%NM 15.85%EV -1.49%E -0.251%K -0.303%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -4.18%E -0.961%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-02 15:05
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.41%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.86I 17.06%NM 15.97%EV -2.49%E -0.424%K -0.512%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.62%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 14:55
Betsson1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -6.78%E -4.46%K -13.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.14%EV -3.49%E -0.601%K -0.726%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 14:49
NordicBet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -6.78%E -4.46%K -13.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.14%EV -3.49%E -0.601%K -0.726%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 14:50
Grosvenor1.49I 67.11%NM 62.52%EV -8.62%E -5.78%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -3.49%E -0.601%K -0.726%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -4.18%E -0.961%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.52%EV -8.62%E -5.78%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -3.49%E -0.601%K -0.726%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -4.18%E -0.961%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 14:35
Unibet1.48I 67.57%NM 62.28%EV -9.23%E -6.24%K -19.23%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -4.32%E -0.751%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -6.38%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:35
Casumo1.48I 67.57%NM 62.28%EV -9.23%E -6.24%K -19.23%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -4.32%E -0.751%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -6.38%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:39
Unibet (NL)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.28%EV -9.23%E -6.24%K -19.23%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -4.32%E -0.751%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -6.38%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:35
betPARX1.48I 67.57%NM 62.28%EV -9.23%E -6.24%K -19.23%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -4.32%E -0.751%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -6.38%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 14:34
FanDuel1.51I 66.23%NM 61.88%EV -7.39%E -4.89%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.39%EV -5.15%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -5.28%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 13:19
LeoVegas1.53I 65.36%NM 61.20%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -5.28%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 14:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 13:30
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.51%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.38%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 13:20
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:58
Bet Right1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -9.69%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-02 14:59
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 14:49
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 14:49
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 14:49
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 14:49
BetRivers1.45I 68.97%NM 61.83%EV -11.07%E -7.63%K -24.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -9.69%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-02 14:35
TABtouch1.44I 69.44%NM 61.99%EV -11.68%E -8.11%K -26.55%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -8.48%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -9.69%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 14:35
Virgin Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 61.97%EV -12.29%E -8.60%K -28.59%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.41%EV -10.14%E -1.88%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -9.69%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-02 14:40
LiveScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 61.97%EV -12.29%E -8.60%K -28.59%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.41%EV -10.14%E -1.88%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -9.69%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-02 14:40
Unibet (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -5.55%E -3.60%K -10.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -12.64%E -2.41%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 13:19
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -12.64%E -2.41%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-02 14:49
PMU (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 61.85%EV -15.36%E -11.13%K -40.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.26%EV -12.64%E -2.41%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.89%EV -14.09%E -3.61%K -4.86%G +0.000%17.2%2026-08-02 14:35
Betclic (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 60.15%EV -10.45%E -7.16%K -22.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.22%EV -15.13%E -2.97%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 22.63%EV -14.53%E -3.75%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-02 14:58
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -16.80%E -3.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-02 13:25
Unibet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 59.57%EV -9.84%E -6.70%K -20.94%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.69%EV -17.63%E -3.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.74%EV -15.19%E -3.95%K -5.33%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-02 13:20
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 59.45%EV -11.68%E -8.11%K -26.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.02%EV -20.96%E -4.41%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.53%EV -16.30%E -4.29%K -5.82%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-02 13:25
Winamax (DE)1.48I 67.57%NM 59.35%EV -9.23%E -6.24%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.69%EV -21.79%E -4.64%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.96%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-02 13:19
Winamax (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 58.95%EV -9.84%E -6.70%K -20.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.84%EV -23.45%E -5.10%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.22%EV -14.09%E -3.61%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-02 13:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.07%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%7.7%2026-08-02 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.07%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%7.7%2026-08-02 15:10
Smarkets1.44I 69.44%NM 46.27%2.46I 40.65%NM 27.08%2.50I 40.00%NM 26.65%50.1%2026-08-02 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 38.66%1.25I 80.00%NM 47.01%4.10I 24.39%NM 14.33%70.2%2026-08-02 15:10