Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Malmo FF v AIK

2026-09-07 17:00 UTC — Allsvenskan - Sweden

Resultado del partido

40 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Malmo FF (Local)

Predicción 54.65%1.83momio equitativo
EV -3.27%
Ventaja -1.84%
Kelly -4.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.77%54.71%54.64%56.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.591.691.701.7762.89%59.25%58.82%56.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

AIK (Visitante)

Predicción 22.30%4.48momio equitativo
EV +4.83%
Ventaja +1.03%
Kelly +1.30%
Crecimiento +0.063%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.70%22.18%22.44%23.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.654.184.184.7027.40%23.92%23.92%21.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.04%4.34momio equitativo
EV -2.06%
Ventaja -0.485%
Kelly -0.634%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.26%23.12%22.92%24.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.913.904.2527.78%25.58%25.64%23.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Malmo FF (Local): 54.65%; AIK (Visitante): 22.30%; Empate: 23.04%. Para AIK (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.48. 4 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.70, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.83%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.97%EV -3.27%E -1.84%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%EV +4.83%E +1.03%K +1.30%G +0.063%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.33%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-31 22:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.97%EV -3.27%E -1.84%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%EV +4.83%E +1.03%K +1.30%G +0.063%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.33%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-31 22:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.97%EV -3.27%E -1.84%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%EV +4.83%E +1.03%K +1.30%G +0.063%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.33%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-31 22:30
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.51%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.88%EV +2.59%E +0.564%K +0.721%G +0.019%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.60%EV -2.06%E -0.485%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-31 20:04
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -1.87%E -0.424%K -0.549%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 20:14
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -1.87%E -0.424%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 22:34
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -1.87%E -0.424%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 22:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -1.87%E -0.424%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 22:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -1.87%E -0.424%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 22:30
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -1.87%E -0.424%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 22:30
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -1.87%E -0.424%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 22:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.77%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.51%EV -3.43%E -0.791%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 23:25
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -4.10%E -0.953%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 00:20
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -4.10%E -0.953%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 00:20
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.82%EV -10.37%E -6.32%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.29%EV -4.10%E -0.953%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-31 20:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -6.33%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 17:24
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.33%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 20:15
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.93%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -6.33%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -8.97%E -2.27%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 20:15
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.90%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -6.33%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.66%EV -15.89%E -4.35%K -6.00%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-31 22:30
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -9.28%E -5.59%K -14.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -6.33%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -15.89%E -4.35%K -6.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-31 22:30
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.85%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.55%EV -7.22%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.60%EV -4.37%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 23:50
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.06%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.69%EV -7.44%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.26%EV -2.52%E -0.596%K -0.781%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 23:50
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.45%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -8.56%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 21:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.89%EV -10.37%E -6.32%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -8.56%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -17.04%E -4.73%K -6.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-31 22:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.89%EV -10.37%E -6.32%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -8.56%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -17.04%E -4.73%K -6.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-31 22:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.89%EV -10.37%E -6.32%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -8.56%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -17.04%E -4.73%K -6.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-31 22:30
GTbets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -3.81%E -2.17%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.16%EV -9.00%E -2.21%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.16%EV -5.98%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 00:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -6.00%E -3.49%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-31 23:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -6.00%E -3.49%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-31 23:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 17:40
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 18:20
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 18:20
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-01 04:09
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 53.92%EV -12.56%E -7.85%K -20.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.12%EV -13.02%E -3.34%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.96%EV -17.04%E -4.73%K -6.55%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-31 20:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.13%EV -11.46%E -7.08%K -18.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.38%EV -16.36%E -4.36%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.49%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-31 17:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 53.77%EV -13.10%E -8.24%K -22.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.80%EV -16.36%E -4.36%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.43%EV -15.89%E -4.35%K -6.00%G +0.000%17.0%2026-08-31 17:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.77%EV -10.37%E -6.32%K -16.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.71%EV -18.59%E -5.09%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.52%EV -15.20%E -4.13%K -5.67%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-31 18:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 53.78%EV -12.56%E -7.85%K -20.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.58%EV -18.59%E -5.09%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.64%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-31 17:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.64I 60.98%NM 53.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.86%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.47%13.6%2026-08-31 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-08-31 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-08-31 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-31 14:45