Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

IK Sirius v Malmo FF

2026-08-31 17:00 UTC — Allsvenskan - Sweden

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (9 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

IK Sirius (Local)

Predicción 52.43%1.91momio equitativo
EV -4.59%
Ventaja -2.52%
Kelly -5.59%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.10%52.28%52.48%54.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.731.731.8261.73%57.76%57.64%54.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Malmo FF (Visitante)

Predicción 24.25%4.12momio equitativo
EV +4.29%
Ventaja +0.998%
Kelly +1.30%
Crecimiento +0.056%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.66%24.42%24.06%26.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.853.834.3030.30%25.96%26.14%23.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.32%4.29momio equitativo
EV -0.889%
Ventaja -0.209%
Kelly -0.273%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.47%23.31%23.46%23.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.943.994.2527.78%25.40%25.06%23.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: IK Sirius (Local): 52.43%; Malmo FF (Visitante): 24.25%; Empate: 23.32%. Para Malmo FF (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.12. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.30, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.29%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.42%EV -6.16%E -3.44%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV +4.29%E +0.998%K +1.30%G +0.056%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.92%EV -0.889%E -0.209%K -0.273%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-24 17:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.42%EV -6.16%E -3.44%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV +4.29%E +0.998%K +1.30%G +0.056%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.92%EV -0.889%E -0.209%K -0.273%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-24 17:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.42%EV -6.16%E -3.44%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV +4.29%E +0.998%K +1.30%G +0.056%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.92%EV -0.889%E -0.209%K -0.273%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-24 17:14
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.82%EV -4.59%E -2.52%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.45%EV -0.557%E -0.136%K -0.180%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.74%EV -5.55%E -1.37%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-24 19:39
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -9.30%E -5.38%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.557%E -0.136%K -0.180%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 17:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -9.30%E -5.38%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.557%E -0.136%K -0.180%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 17:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -9.30%E -5.38%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.557%E -0.136%K -0.180%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 17:14
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -9.30%E -5.38%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.557%E -0.136%K -0.180%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 17:14
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -9.30%E -5.38%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.557%E -0.136%K -0.180%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 17:14
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -9.30%E -5.38%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.557%E -0.136%K -0.180%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 17:14
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.60%EV -6.68%E -3.75%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.88%EV -4.92%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.52%EV -7.19%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-24 17:24
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -7.21%E -4.07%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -2.05%E -0.489%K -0.642%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-24 17:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -8.26%E -4.72%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.39%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 17:39
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.46%EV -8.78%E -5.05%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -4.39%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 17:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -8.26%E -4.72%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 17:20
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.56%EV -11.93%E -7.10%K -17.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.37%EV -10.22%E -2.65%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-24 17:14
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.68%E -3.75%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.88%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 17:14
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.68%E -3.75%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.88%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 17:14
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.23%EV -11.93%E -7.10%K -17.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.38%E -3.00%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-24 17:14
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -8.26%E -4.72%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -7.83%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-24 17:39
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -9.30%E -5.38%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -7.83%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-24 17:39
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.26%E -4.72%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.83%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.38%E -3.00%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-24 17:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.26%E -4.72%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.83%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.38%E -3.00%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-24 17:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.26%E -4.72%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.83%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.38%E -3.00%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-24 17:39
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.26%E -4.72%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.83%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.38%E -3.00%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-24 17:39
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.88%E -6.40%K -15.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -7.83%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-24 17:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.21%EV -12.97%E -7.82%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -7.83%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -12.55%E -3.35%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-24 17:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.21%EV -12.97%E -7.82%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -7.83%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -12.55%E -3.35%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-24 17:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.21%EV -12.97%E -7.82%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -7.83%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -12.55%E -3.35%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-24 17:14
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -9.30%E -5.38%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-24 17:39
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.89%EV -4.59%E -2.52%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.46%EV -10.02%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.65%EV -2.75%E -0.660%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-24 18:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.85%EV -12.97%E -7.82%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -12.68%E -3.52%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.79%EV -10.22%E -2.65%K -3.58%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-24 17:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.80%EV -15.07%E -9.30%K -24.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.76%EV -12.68%E -3.52%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.44%EV -14.88%E -4.08%K -5.62%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-24 17:19
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -7.21%E -4.07%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -15.11%E -4.32%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-24 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.63%EV -14.02%E -8.55%K -21.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.66%EV -15.11%E -4.32%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.71%EV -11.38%E -3.00%K -4.07%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-24 17:20
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.52%EV -12.45%E -7.45%K -18.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -15.11%E -4.32%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -16.05%E -4.46%K -6.17%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-24 17:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.10%EV -8.78%E -5.05%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.02%EV -18.75%E -5.60%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.88%EV -14.88%E -4.08%K -5.62%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-24 17:19
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.95%EV -10.88%E -6.40%K -15.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -19.96%E -6.05%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.80%EV -11.38%E -3.00%K -4.07%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-24 17:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 52.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%13.2%2026-08-24 17:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-24 13:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-24 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-24 13:09