Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

IK Sirius v Malmo FF

Inicio: 2026-08-31 17:00 UTC

Final: IK Sirius 0–1 Malmo FF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

IK Sirius (Local)

Predicción 55.33%1.81momio equitativo
EV -3.18%
Ventaja -1.82%
Kelly -4.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.54%55.27%55.50%56.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.581.681.691.7563.29%59.56%59.17%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Malmo FF (Visitante)

Predicción 22.55%4.43momio equitativo
EV +1.48%
Ventaja +0.328%
Kelly +0.422%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.38%22.52%22.48%23.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.094.094.5026.67%24.43%24.45%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.12%4.52momio equitativo
EV -1.56%
Ventaja -0.350%
Kelly -0.452%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.38%22.20%22.02%23.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.084.104.4526.32%24.53%24.39%22.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: IK Sirius (Local): 55.33%; Malmo FF (Visitante): 22.55%; Empate: 22.12%. Para Malmo FF (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.43. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.48%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.68%EV -3.18%E -1.82%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65%EV +1.48%E +0.328%K +0.422%G +0.006%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV -4.88%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-31 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.68%EV -3.18%E -1.82%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65%EV +1.48%E +0.328%K +0.422%G +0.006%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV -4.88%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-31 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.68%EV -3.18%E -1.82%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65%EV +1.48%E +0.328%K +0.422%G +0.006%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV -4.88%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-31 16:35
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.55%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -0.778%E -0.177%K -0.229%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.60%EV -1.56%E -0.350%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-31 16:40
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -7.05%E -4.20%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -1.91%E -0.438%K -0.569%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -11.51%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-31 16:29
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -7.05%E -4.20%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -1.91%E -0.438%K -0.569%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -11.51%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-31 16:30
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.67%EV -4.84%E -2.81%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.32%EV -3.26%E -0.760%K -0.991%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.01%EV -3.77%E -0.867%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-31 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.41%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -5.98%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.70%EV -6.50%E -3.84%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.89%EV -4.88%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 16:40
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.55%EV -6.50%E -3.84%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.09%EV -5.98%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-31 16:49
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -7.60%E -4.55%K -11.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -4.88%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 16:50
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -9.30%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -9.30%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -9.30%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 16:30
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -9.30%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 16:30
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -9.30%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 16:30
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -9.30%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 16:30
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.11%EV -6.50%E -3.84%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -9.30%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 16:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.74%EV -10.37%E -6.40%K -16.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -4.88%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 16:30
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -8.71%E -5.28%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -11.51%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 16:30
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -8.71%E -5.28%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -11.51%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 16:34
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.90%EV -8.71%E -5.28%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.53%EV -14.83%E -3.85%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-31 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -4.84%E -2.81%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.09%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -4.84%E -2.81%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.09%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 16:40
BetAnything🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -4.84%E -2.81%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.09%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 16:40
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.25%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -4.88%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-31 16:40
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.82%EV -5.39%E -3.15%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -7.09%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 16:40
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -8.16%E -4.91%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -9.30%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 16:49
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.24%EV -3.73%E -2.14%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.13%EV -7.99%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.63%EV -7.75%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 16:35
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.48%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.42%EV -8.45%E -2.08%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -2.66%E -0.605%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 16:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -5.98%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 16:45
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.46%EV -7.60%E -4.55%K -11.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV -4.21%E -0.973%K -1.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 16:56
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.51%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 15:45
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.51%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 16:45
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -13.73%E -3.52%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -13.73%E -3.52%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -13.73%E -3.52%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 16:30
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -5.94%E -3.50%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -13.73%E -3.52%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 16:30
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.48%EV -8.71%E -5.28%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -13.73%E -3.52%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-31 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.32%EV -8.71%E -5.28%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -14.83%E -3.85%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-31 16:35
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -10.37%E -6.40%K -16.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -11.51%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -10.37%E -6.40%K -16.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -11.51%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.24%EV -9.82%E -6.02%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -10.93%E -2.77%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -9.30%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-31 16:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.47%EV -9.82%E -6.02%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%EV -10.93%E -2.77%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -14.83%E -3.85%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.47%EV -9.82%E -6.02%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%EV -10.93%E -2.77%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -14.83%E -3.85%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 16:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.47%EV -9.82%E -6.02%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%EV -10.93%E -2.77%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -14.83%E -3.85%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -8.16%E -4.91%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -7.09%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 16:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.72%EV -7.05%E -4.20%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -13.73%E -3.52%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-31 16:45
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -7.60%E -4.55%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -15.94%E -4.19%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-31 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -7.60%E -4.55%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -15.94%E -4.19%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-31 16:45
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -7.60%E -4.55%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -15.94%E -4.19%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-31 16:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -7.60%E -4.55%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -15.94%E -4.19%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-31 16:45
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.62%EV -10.37%E -6.40%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -13.73%E -3.52%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-31 16:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.55%EV -12.58%E -7.96%K -21.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.51%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -11.51%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-31 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.60%EV -9.26%E -5.65%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.31%E -3.77%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -9.30%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 16:35
BoyleSports🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.74%EV -11.48%E -7.17%K -19.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.36%EV -15.44%E -4.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.90%EV -11.51%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-31 16:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.38%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.05%0.8%2026-08-31 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.52%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%1.1%2026-08-31 16:56
Matchbook◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.66%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.43%1.4%2026-08-31 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.6%2026-08-31 16:56
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.19%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.70%2.4%2026-08-31 16:55