Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Elfsborg v Västerås SK

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:00 UTC

Final: IF Elfsborg 3–0 Västerås SK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Elfsborg (Local)

Prediction 58.81%1.70fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -4.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.24%58.73%58.85%60.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.571.571.6565.79%63.51%63.69%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Västerås SK (Visit)

Prediction 18.08%5.53fair odd
EV +1.27%
Edge +0.227%
Kelly +0.277%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.91%18.15%18.05%19.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.075.005.6022.22%19.71%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.11%4.33fair odd
EV +0.046%
Edge +0.011%
Kelly +0.014%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.07%23.12%23.11%24.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.963.954.3327.03%25.28%25.32%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Elfsborg (Local): 58.81%; Västerås SK (Visit): 18.08%; Draw: 23.11%. For Västerås SK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.53. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.41%EV -3.55%E -2.17%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV +1.27%E +0.227%K +0.277%G +0.004%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.20%EV -2.96%E -0.704%K -0.924%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-14 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.41%EV -3.55%E -2.17%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV +1.27%E +0.227%K +0.277%G +0.004%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.20%EV -2.96%E -0.704%K -0.924%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-14 16:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.41%EV -3.55%E -2.17%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV +1.27%E +0.227%K +0.277%G +0.004%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.20%EV -2.96%E -0.704%K -0.924%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-14 16:25
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.03%EV -4.14%E -2.54%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.50%EV -0.536%E -0.098%K -0.119%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV -5.27%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-14 16:24
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -9.43%E -6.12%K -17.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -0.536%E -0.098%K -0.119%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -5.27%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 16:34
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.51%EV -5.32%E -3.30%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.84%EV -2.89%E -0.538%K -0.661%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.65%EV -2.26%E -0.535%K -0.701%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-14 16:50
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.27%EV -5.90%E -3.69%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.32I 18.80%NM 17.83%EV -3.79%E -0.713%K -0.878%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.91%EV -4.34%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 16:59
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.04%EV -5.90%E -3.69%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -4.15%E -0.784%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 16:50
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.04%EV -5.90%E -3.69%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -4.15%E -0.784%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 16:47
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.68%EV -9.43%E -6.12%K -17.47%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -4.15%E -0.784%K -0.966%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.58%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 16:34
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.73%EV -5.90%E -3.69%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -5.06%E -0.963%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.07%EV +0.046%E +0.011%K +0.014%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-14 16:34
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -5.32%E -3.30%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -5.06%E -0.963%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -5.27%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -7.08%E -4.48%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -5.06%E -0.963%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.96%E -0.704%K -0.924%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 16:25
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -5.06%E -0.963%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -2.96%E -0.704%K -0.924%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.49%EV -5.90%E -3.69%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -5.06%E -0.963%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -8.73%E -2.21%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 16:30
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.49%EV -5.90%E -3.69%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -5.06%E -0.963%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -8.73%E -2.21%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 16:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -5.06%E -0.963%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -7.58%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 16:49
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.05%EV -6.49%E -4.08%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.05%EV -5.96%E -1.15%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.27%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 16:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -8.84%E -5.71%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -5.96%E -1.15%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -7.58%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 16:25
BetAnything🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.46%EV -3.55%E -2.17%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.76%EV -7.59%E -1.49%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.77%EV -2.73%E -0.648%K -0.850%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-14 16:14
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.29%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.94%EV -7.77%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.77%EV -11.04%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.29%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.94%EV -7.77%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.77%EV -11.04%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.29%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.94%EV -7.77%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.77%EV -11.04%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:25
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.29%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.94%EV -7.77%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.77%EV -11.04%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:29
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -5.32%E -3.30%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.27%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 16:54
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -5.32%E -3.30%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.58%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 16:23
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.58%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 16:49
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -9.89%E -2.54%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:38
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -9.89%E -2.54%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:39
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.58%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -8.73%E -2.21%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-14 16:49
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 16:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 16:49
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 16:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.67%E -4.88%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 16:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.57%EV -8.84%E -5.71%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.16%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -9.89%E -2.54%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.38%EV -10.61%E -6.98%K -20.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -7.58%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 16:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -10.02%E -6.55%K -18.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -9.89%E -2.54%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-14 16:49
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -10.02%E -6.55%K -18.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -9.58%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 16:19
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 18.88%EV -9.94%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.10%EV -5.96%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 16:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.95%EV -10.02%E -6.55%K -18.91%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.22%EV -10.48%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.83%EV -8.73%E -2.21%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-14 16:33
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.82%EV -2.96%E -1.80%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.35%EV -10.84%E -2.20%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.82%EV -3.42%E -0.818%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 14:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.82%EV -2.96%E -1.80%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.35%EV -10.84%E -2.20%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.82%EV -3.42%E -0.818%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 14:20
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.66%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.74%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.36%EV -11.39%E -2.32%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -13.36%E -3.56%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-14 16:25
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.81%EV -8.84%E -5.71%K -16.08%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.29%EV -11.39%E -2.32%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -13.36%E -3.56%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 16:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.95%EV -10.02%E -6.55%K -18.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -11.39%E -2.32%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.96%EV -14.51%E -3.92%K -5.37%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-14 16:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.95%EV -10.02%E -6.55%K -18.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -11.39%E -2.32%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.96%EV -14.51%E -3.92%K -5.37%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-14 16:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.95%EV -10.02%E -6.55%K -18.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -11.39%E -2.32%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.96%EV -14.51%E -3.92%K -5.37%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-14 16:25
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.24%EV -7.08%E -4.48%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.65%EV -12.29%E -2.53%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -13.36%E -3.56%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.95%EV -9.43%E -6.12%K -17.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -13.20%E -2.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -5.27%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 16:20
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -8.84%E -5.71%K -16.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -13.20%E -2.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 16:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -8.84%E -5.71%K -16.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -13.20%E -2.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 16:25
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -8.84%E -5.71%K -16.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -13.20%E -2.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 16:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -8.84%E -5.71%K -16.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -13.20%E -2.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 16:25
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -10.02%E -6.55%K -18.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -13.20%E -2.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-14 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.71%EV -10.61%E -6.98%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.99%EV -15.00%E -3.19%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -7.58%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-14 16:19
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.38%EV -10.02%E -6.55%K -18.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -18.62%E -4.14%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -12.20%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-14 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.86I 53.76%NM 57.04%5.80I 17.24%NM 18.29%4.30I 23.26%NM 24.67%-5.7%2026-08-14 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.84%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%0.7%2026-08-14 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.84%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%0.7%2026-08-14 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.84%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%0.7%2026-08-14 16:55
Matchbook1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.84%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%0.7%2026-08-14 16:55