Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Elfsborg v AIK

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 14:30 UTC

Final: IF Elfsborg 1–1 AIK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Elfsborg (Local)

Prediction 34.19%2.92fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -0.771%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.97%34.34%34.21%37.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.682.8640.00%37.35%37.31%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AIK (Visit)

Prediction 36.57%2.73fair odd
EV +4.22%
Edge +1.48%
Kelly +2.28%
Growth +0.096%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.74%36.40%36.56%37.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.522.542.8543.48%39.65%39.45%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.24%3.42fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.613%
Kelly -0.873%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.15%29.25%29.23%30.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.153.153.3534.72%31.70%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Elfsborg (Local): 34.19%; AIK (Visit): 36.57%; Draw: 29.24%. For AIK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%EV -12.46%E -4.87%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.74%EV +4.22%E +1.48%K +2.28%G +0.096%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.70%EV -2.05%E -0.613%K -0.873%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-03 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.90%EV -4.26%E -1.52%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.96%EV -3.46%E -1.31%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.14%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 14:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.90%EV -4.26%E -1.52%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.96%EV -3.46%E -1.31%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.14%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 14:00
BetAnything🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.90%EV -4.26%E -1.52%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.96%EV -3.46%E -1.31%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.14%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 14:00
Pinnacle🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.56%EV -2.20%E -0.771%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.91%EV -4.92%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -4.92%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -4.92%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -4.92%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -4.92%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -4.92%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:00
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -4.26%E -1.52%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.92%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 14:05
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -5.97%E -2.17%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -4.92%E -1.89%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 12:30
GTbets🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.86%EV -7.33%E -2.71%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.76%EV -6.02%E -2.34%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.37%EV -2.64%E -0.792%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 14:05
BetUS🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.84%EV -4.94%E -1.78%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.75%EV -6.39%E -2.49%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:25
Bovada🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.69%EV -4.94%E -1.78%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.58%EV -6.39%E -2.49%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 14:20
1xBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -5.97%E -2.17%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.41%EV -6.39%E -2.49%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.69%EV -8.19%E -2.61%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 14:25
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -4.26%E -1.52%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 14:00
Everygame🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.48%EV -4.26%E -1.52%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.76%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 14:21
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 12:45
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -9.39%E -3.54%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 14:01
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -9.39%E -3.54%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -9.39%E -3.54%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 14:01
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -9.39%E -3.54%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 14:01
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -9.39%E -3.54%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -10.07%E -3.83%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:01
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -10.07%E -3.83%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:00
LeoVegas🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -10.07%E -3.83%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:05
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.78%EV -8.36%E -3.12%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.98%EV -7.85%E -3.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.51%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 14:10
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.78%EV -8.36%E -3.12%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.98%EV -7.85%E -3.11%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.51%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.51%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 14:05
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -10.41%E -3.97%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 14:05
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -5.97%E -2.17%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 14:20
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -5.97%E -2.17%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -5.97%E -2.17%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -5.97%E -2.17%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 14:00
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 14:01
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 14:05
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.41%E -3.97%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.58%E -3.43%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 14:05
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.52%EV -9.39%E -3.54%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -10.41%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 14:05
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.14%EV -10.41%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.16%EV -8.78%E -2.81%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 14:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -10.41%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-03 14:01
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -10.41%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-03 14:05
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.41%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 12:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.41%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 12:45
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.41%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 12:45
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.55%EV -10.07%E -3.83%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.02%EV -10.41%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.43%EV -15.21%E -5.24%K -8.01%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-03 14:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -14.51%E -5.81%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.12%EV -11.14%E -4.58%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.78%EV -10.82%E -3.55%K -5.28%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-03 14:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.33%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.88%EV -11.51%E -4.75%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 14:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -14.51%E -5.81%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -12.24%E -5.10%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-03 14:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -7.68%E -2.84%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -12.97%E -5.45%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.36%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-03 14:26
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.62%EV -10.41%E -3.97%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -12.97%E -5.45%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.36%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-03 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.80%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.39%EV -14.07%E -5.99%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.81%EV -10.82%E -3.55%K -5.28%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-03 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.97%EV -11.09%E -4.27%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.27%EV -15.89%E -6.91%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.76%EV -15.79%E -5.48%K -8.40%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-03 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.80%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91%1.3%2026-05-03 14:21
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.80%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91%1.3%2026-05-03 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.80%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91%1.3%2026-05-03 14:20
Matchbook2.94I 34.01%NM 33.56%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.90%1.4%2026-05-03 14:25
Smarkets2.88I 34.72%NM 33.77%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.30%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.93%2.8%2026-05-03 14:26