The School of Odds

GAIS v IF Elfsborg

2026-07-12 14:30 — Allsvenskan - Sweden

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Option 1: GAIS (Local)

1.8653.76%Min
2.0548.84%Mean
2.0548.78%Median
2.1047.62%Max
42.86%2.333Min
45.51%2.197Max
44.32%2.257Mean
44.28%2.258Median
44.32%2.257IQM
44.36%2.255Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.10 under the IQM model: 44.32%

EV -6.94%Edge -3.30%Kelly -6.31%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: IF Elfsborg (Visit)

3.0033.33%Min
3.2730.55%Mean
3.3030.30%Median
3.4528.99%Max
27.04%3.698Min
28.57%3.500Max
27.70%3.610Mean
27.67%3.613Median
27.70%3.610IQM
27.71%3.609Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.45 under the IQM model: 27.70%

EV -4.44%Edge -1.29%Kelly -1.81%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

3.0033.33%Min
3.2530.75%Mean
3.2530.77%Median
3.4029.41%Max
27.15%3.683Min
28.57%3.500Max
27.98%3.573Mean
28.04%3.566Median
27.98%3.573IQM
27.94%3.580Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.40 under the IQM model: 27.98%

EV -4.85%Edge -1.43%Kelly -2.02%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

BookmakerGAIS (Local) ▼IF Elfsborg (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet2.10I 47.62% NM 44.74%EV -6.94% E -3.30% K -6.31% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.63%EV -5.82% E -1.71% K -2.43% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.63%EV -4.85% E -1.43% K -2.02% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 14:55
Betsson2.10I 47.62% NM 44.74%EV -6.94% E -3.30% K -6.31% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.63%EV -5.82% E -1.71% K -2.43% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.63%EV -4.85% E -1.43% K -2.02% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 14:55
1xBet2.10I 47.62% NM 44.59%EV -6.94% E -3.30% K -6.31% G +0.000%3.38I 29.59% NM 27.70%EV -6.38% E -1.89% K -2.68% G +0.000%3.38I 29.59% NM 27.70%EV -5.41% E -1.60% K -2.27% G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-05 18:40
FanDuel2.10I 47.62% NM 44.00%EV -6.94% E -3.30% K -6.31% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 28.00%EV -8.59% E -2.60% K -3.74% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 28.00%EV -7.65% E -2.32% K -3.33% G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 14:30
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62% NM 43.62%EV -6.94% E -3.30% K -6.31% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 28.19%EV -9.98% E -3.07% K -4.44% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 28.19%EV -9.05% E -2.78% K -4.02% G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-05 14:30
Bet Right2.10I 47.62% NM 43.62%EV -6.94% E -3.30% K -6.31% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 28.19%EV -9.98% E -3.07% K -4.44% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 28.19%EV -9.05% E -2.78% K -4.02% G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-05 14:50
SportsBet2.08I 48.08% NM 44.24%EV -7.82% E -3.76% K -7.24% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.88%EV -8.59% E -2.60% K -3.74% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.88%EV -7.65% E -2.32% K -3.33% G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-05 14:30
LeoVegas2.05I 48.78% NM 45.51%EV -9.15% E -4.46% K -8.72% G +0.000%3.45I 28.99% NM 27.04%EV -4.44% E -1.29% K -1.81% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.44%EV -4.85% E -1.43% K -2.02% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 16:05
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78% NM 44.22%EV -9.15% E -4.46% K -8.72% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.89%EV -9.98% E -3.07% K -4.44% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.89%EV -9.05% E -2.78% K -4.02% G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 14:30
888sport2.05I 48.78% NM 44.21%EV -9.15% E -4.46% K -8.72% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.46%EV -8.59% E -2.60% K -3.74% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.32%EV -10.45% E -3.27% K -4.75% G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 14:25
William Hill2.05I 48.78% NM 44.21%EV -9.15% E -4.46% K -8.72% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.46%EV -8.59% E -2.60% K -3.74% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.32%EV -10.45% E -3.27% K -4.75% G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 14:25
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78% NM 44.21%EV -9.15% E -4.46% K -8.72% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.46%EV -8.59% E -2.60% K -3.74% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.32%EV -10.45% E -3.27% K -4.75% G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 14:25
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78% NM 44.21%EV -9.15% E -4.46% K -8.72% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.46%EV -8.59% E -2.60% K -3.74% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.32%EV -10.45% E -3.27% K -4.75% G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 14:25
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00% NM 42.86%EV -11.37% E -5.68% K -11.37% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.57%EV -16.90% E -5.63% K -8.45% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.57%EV -16.05% E -5.35% K -8.02% G +0.000%16.7%2026-07-05 14:30
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08% NM 45.26%EV -14.91% E -7.77% K -16.21% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 27.59%EV -12.75% E -4.05% K -5.93% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 27.16%EV -10.45% E -3.27% K -4.75% G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-05 13:45
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76% NM 45.25%EV -17.57% E -9.45% K -20.43% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 27.60%EV -15.52% E -5.09% K -7.57% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 27.15%EV -13.25% E -4.27% K -6.31% G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-05 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerGAIS (Local)IF Elfsborg (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%3.25I 30.77%3.15I 31.75%13.5%2026-07-05 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.17I 85.47%1.17I 85.47%1.03I 97.09%168.0%2026-07-05 17:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.17I 85.47%1.17I 85.47%1.03I 97.09%168.0%2026-07-05 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.17I 85.47%1.17I 85.47%1.01I 99.01%170.0%2026-07-05 15:50