The School of Odds

GAIS v IF Elfsborg

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 14:30 UTC

Final: GAIS 1–0 IF Elfsborg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

GAIS (Local)

Prediction 52.55%1.90fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.637%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.96%52.60%52.48%55.06%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.751.8860%57%57%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

IF Elfsborg (Visit)

Prediction 21.68%4.61fair odd
EV +1.88%
Edge +0.401%
Kelly +0.509%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.80%21.66%21.72%23.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.804.244.204.7026%24%24%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.77%3.88fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.547%
Kelly -0.743%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.92%25.74%25.80%26.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.553.513.8031%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 55.06%EV -11.18%E -6.62%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV +1.88%E +0.401%K +0.509%G +0.010%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -4.66%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 14:20
Pinnacle1.80I 55.56%NM 53.19%EV -5.40%E -3.00%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.72%EV +0.149%E +0.032%K +0.041%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.09%EV -5.43%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-12 14:10
Unibet (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -1.72%E -0.922%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.78%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.80%EV -2.08%E -0.547%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-12 14:04
ATG (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -1.72%E -0.922%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.78%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.80%EV -2.08%E -0.547%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-12 14:04
Svenska Spel1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -1.72%E -0.922%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.78%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.80%EV -2.08%E -0.547%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-12 14:05
LowVig.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.40%E -3.00%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 14:05
BetOnline.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.40%E -3.00%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 14:04
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.40%E -3.00%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 14:05
BetAnything1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.40%E -3.00%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 14:04
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.98%E -3.94%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-12 14:04
SportsBet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.52%EV -10.13%E -5.93%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 14:20
1xBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.31%EV -6.45%E -3.63%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.52%EV -4.40%E -0.998%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.17%EV -2.85%E -0.757%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 14:19
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -8.56%E -4.92%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -4.62%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.66%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-12 13:53
Everygame1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -8.03%E -4.59%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -4.62%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 14:04
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -10.66%E -6.27%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -4.62%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-12 14:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -10.66%E -6.27%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -4.62%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-12 14:19
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 52.62%EV -5.40%E -3.00%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.78%EV -5.70%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.66%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 14:24
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -6.45%E -3.63%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -5.70%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-12 13:59
GTbets1.88I 53.19%NM 50.96%EV -1.20%E -0.637%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.13%EV -6.14%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.91%EV -8.26%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-12 14:00
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -6.45%E -3.63%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -6.79%E -1.58%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-12 14:10
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -6.45%E -3.63%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -6.79%E -1.58%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-12 13:55
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -6.98%E -3.94%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -7.87%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 13:54
Grosvenor1.80I 55.56%NM 51.66%EV -5.40%E -3.00%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -8.52%E -2.40%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 14:04
LeoVegas (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.66%EV -5.40%E -3.00%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -8.52%E -2.40%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 14:04
Bet Right1.76I 56.82%NM 52.22%EV -7.50%E -4.26%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -8.52%E -2.40%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 13:54
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -9.08%E -5.25%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 13:55
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -8.03%E -4.59%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 13:55
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -8.03%E -4.59%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 13:54
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -8.03%E -4.59%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 13:55
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -8.03%E -4.59%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 13:54
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -8.03%E -4.59%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -12.39%E -3.64%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-12 14:09
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -10.66%E -6.27%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.53%EV -9.04%E -2.56%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 14:05
Unibet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 53.19%EV -11.71%E -6.97%K -17.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-12 14:05
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -10.66%E -6.27%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -8.96%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -12.39%E -3.64%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-12 14:20
Coolbet1.88I 53.19%NM 51.02%EV -1.20%E -0.637%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.40%EV -11.12%E -2.71%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.58%EV -3.37%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-12 14:24
Casumo1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -5.93%E -3.31%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -11.12%E -2.71%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 14:04
Unibet1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -5.93%E -3.31%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -11.12%E -2.71%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 14:04
Unibet (NL)1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -5.93%E -3.31%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -11.12%E -2.71%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 14:04
betPARX1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -5.93%E -3.31%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -11.12%E -2.71%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 14:04
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.89%EV -9.61%E -5.59%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -11.12%E -2.71%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -5.95%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-12 13:59
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -8.03%E -4.59%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-12 13:54
BetRivers1.76I 56.82%NM 51.08%EV -7.50%E -4.26%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -12.39%E -3.64%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 14:04
TABtouch1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -8.03%E -4.59%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.39%E -3.64%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-12 14:05
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.66%E -6.27%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-12 13:54
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.66%E -6.27%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-12 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.66%E -6.27%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-12 13:54
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.66%E -6.27%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-12 13:54
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.66%E -6.27%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-12 13:54
LiveScore Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 51.17%EV -9.08%E -5.25%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.41%EV -14.37%E -3.64%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -13.68%E -4.08%K -5.82%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-12 14:05
Virgin Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 51.17%EV -9.08%E -5.25%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.41%EV -14.37%E -3.64%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -13.68%E -4.08%K -5.82%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-12 14:04
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 52.33%EV -11.71%E -6.97%K -17.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.54%EV -15.46%E -3.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-12 14:00
PMU (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 51.19%EV -12.23%E -7.33%K -18.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.50%EV -17.63%E -4.64%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.31%EV -16.25%E -5.00%K -7.22%G +0.000%17.0%2026-07-12 14:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.84I 54.35%NM 54.35%5.00I 20.00%NM 20.00%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.64%-0.0%2026-07-12 14:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.13%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-07-12 14:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.13%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-07-12 14:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.13%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-07-12 14:25
Matchbook1.84I 54.35%NM 54.13%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-07-12 14:24