Language:English
Motherwell v Falkirk F.C.
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Motherwell (Local)
Prediction 51.71%1.93fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.98%51.71%51.70%53.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.811.801.8958.48%55.40%55.56%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Falkirk F.C. (Visit)
Prediction 22.78%4.39fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.365%
Kelly -0.474%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.85%22.83%22.81%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.024.004.3226.67%24.90%25.00%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.51%3.92fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.467%
Kelly -0.631%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.62%25.45%25.50%26.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.603.8529.41%27.51%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motherwell (Local): 51.71%; Falkirk F.C. (Visit): 22.78%; Draw: 25.51%. For Falkirk F.C. (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.32, with an expected value of -1.58%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.87%EV -2.27%E -1.20%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.62%EV -7.27%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.50%EV -3.84%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-09 13:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.66%EV -3.30%E -1.77%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.36%EV -1.58%E -0.365%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.97%EV -5.12%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -4.34%E -2.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -5.45%E -1.31%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 06:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -4.34%E -2.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -5.45%E -1.31%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 06:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.34%E -2.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -4.35%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-06 14:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.34%E -2.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -4.35%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-06 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -4.34%E -2.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -13.42%E -3.53%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -4.34%E -2.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -13.42%E -3.53%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 13:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -4.34%E -2.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -13.42%E -3.53%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -4.34%E -2.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -13.42%E -3.53%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -5.37%E -2.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -6.59%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -3.08%E -0.809%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -5.37%E -2.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -4.31%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 12:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.37%E -2.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -4.35%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-06 14:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -5.37%E -2.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 13:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -5.37%E -2.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 13:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -5.37%E -2.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.59%EV -5.37%E -2.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -12.28%E -3.19%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -6.90%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.66%EV -5.89%E -3.24%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -6.59%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-09 13:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.06%EV -5.89%E -3.24%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-06 14:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.80%EV -6.41%E -3.54%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -6.59%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 13:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.51%EV -6.41%E -3.54%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.59%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -7.67%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 13:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.92%EV -6.41%E -3.54%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.75%EV -7.73%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -10.73%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 13:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.92%EV -6.41%E -3.54%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.75%EV -7.73%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -10.73%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 13:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.65%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.73%EV -4.99%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -1.80%E -0.467%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 04:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -4.31%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-08 08:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.11%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -6.59%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -4.35%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 04:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.04%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -4.31%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -6.90%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.04%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -4.31%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -6.90%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -3.17%E -0.746%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 12:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -3.17%E -0.746%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 12:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.08%E -0.809%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 13:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.59%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 13:43 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.31%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.31%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 12:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.31%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 12:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 13:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.92%E -3.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.73%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-09 13:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.56%EV -7.96%E -4.47%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 13:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.69%EV -8.99%E -5.11%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.03%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 08:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.17%EV -8.99%E -5.11%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -10.73%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 13:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.86%EV -8.99%E -5.11%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -13.42%E -3.53%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -10.73%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.66%EV -9.51%E -5.43%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.64%EV -14.56%E -3.88%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.70%EV -12.00%E -3.48%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.11%EV -10.54%E -6.09%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.27%EV -13.42%E -3.53%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -12.00%E -3.48%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 13:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.11%EV -10.54%E -6.09%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.27%EV -13.42%E -3.53%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -12.00%E -3.48%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 13:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -11.06%E -6.43%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.31%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 12:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.21%EV -11.06%E -6.43%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.88%EV -12.28%E -3.19%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.91%EV -13.28%E -3.91%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-09 13:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.56%EV -11.58%E -6.77%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-09 13:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.15% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.22% | 0.4% | 2026-08-09 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.15% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.22% | 0.4% | 2026-08-09 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.15% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.22% | 0.4% | 2026-08-09 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.15% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.22% | 0.4% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.50% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.75% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 13:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.20% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.31% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49% | 1.9% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
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