Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Motherwell v Falkirk F.C.

2026-08-09 14:00 UTC — Premiership - Scotland

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Motherwell (Local)

Prediction 51.09%1.96fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -5.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.01%51.11%51.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.821.831.8757.80%54.89%54.64%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Falkirk F.C. (Visit)

Prediction 23.62%4.23fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -0.771%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.45%23.65%23.59%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.933.934.1027.78%25.45%25.45%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.29%3.95fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.686%
Kelly -0.927%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.57%25.34%25.30%26.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.643.603.8528.99%27.44%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Motherwell (Local): 51.09%; Falkirk F.C. (Visit): 23.62%; Draw: 25.29%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.85, with an expected value of -2.64%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -4.45%E -2.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -3.16%E -0.771%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 18:59
Coolbet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -2.64%E -0.686%K -0.927%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 18:59
Pinnacle1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.53%EV -4.58%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.08%EV -4.16%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 17:35
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.44%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 18:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 18:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 18:59
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 18:54
1xBet1.84I 54.35%NM 50.92%EV -5.99%E -3.25%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.90%EV -7.41%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.18%EV -5.93%E -1.59%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-02 17:35
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -3.91%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 19:00
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.17%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 19:00
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -5.17%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 19:00
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-02 18:59
DraftKings1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 16:49
888sport1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 19:00
William Hill1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 18:55
Mr Green (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 18:54
888sport (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 18:55
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -7.01%E -3.85%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -3.91%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 19:00
Marathon Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -7.01%E -3.85%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.67%EV -6.94%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.07%EV -5.93%E -1.59%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 17:30
Bet Right1.82I 54.95%NM 51.06%EV -7.01%E -3.85%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -6.44%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 18:59
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -8.03%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -5.17%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 17:20
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -8.03%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 19:00
betano_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -8.03%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 18:59
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.03%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -14.97%E -4.16%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-02 15:49
Codere (IT)1.79I 55.87%NM 50.78%EV -8.54%E -4.77%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -10.23%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-02 19:00
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.61%EV -9.05%E -5.09%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.44%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 18:59
Tipico (DE)1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -9.56%E -5.40%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -3.16%E -0.771%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 20:05
Unibet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.79%EV -11.61%E -6.71%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.75%EV -12.61%E -3.41%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -12.76%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-02 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%8.5%2026-08-02 19:00