Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.81
assuming max odds 1.80
assuming max odds 4.08
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kilmarnock (Local): 21.16%; Hearts (Visit): 55.01%; Draw: 23.83%. For Kilmarnock (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.80%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.81I 20.79%NM 19.96%EV +1.80%E +0.374%K +0.472%G +0.008% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.81%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.24%EV -5.65%E -1.43%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.30%EV +0.529%E +0.111%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.06%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.63%EV -2.79%E -0.683%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-19 16:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV +0.529%E +0.111%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -7.03%E -4.16%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 16:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -0.530%E -0.113%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.37%EV -9.23%E -5.60%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 16:23 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -2.65%E -0.575%K -0.735%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -7.03%E -4.16%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.47%EV -3.70%E -0.814%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.77%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 23.76%EV -6.60%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 16:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 16:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 16:28 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -5.89%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-18 07:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 16:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -9.46%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-19 16:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.55%EV -8.68%E -5.23%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.27%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-19 16:33 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -10.88%E -6.72%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-19 16:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -5.82%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.15%EV -7.03%E -4.16%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-19 16:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-19 16:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.89%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.06%EV -5.93%E -3.47%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.59%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-19 16:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -8.27%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -8.27%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-19 16:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.58%E -4.51%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.58%E -4.51%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -10.65%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -7.94%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.31%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -7.94%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.02%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -8.27%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-19 15:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.89%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.46%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.16%EV -10.05%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.85%EV -9.78%E -5.97%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -10.65%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-19 15:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -0.982%E -0.546%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -3.73%E -2.13%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -3.73%E -2.13%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -3.73%E -2.13%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.65%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.11%EV -7.58%E -4.51%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.65%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -9.23%E -5.60%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -9.46%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -9.78%E -5.97%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -9.46%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -10.88%E -6.72%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -9.46%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.99%EV -11.43%E -7.10%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -13.23%E -3.23%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.13%EV -4.28%E -2.46%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -9.46%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -13.23%E -3.23%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.40%EV -10.33%E -6.34%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 20.00% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 56.19% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.81% | -0.0% | 2026-09-19 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.32% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.74% | 0.3% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.26% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.10% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-09-19 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.26% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.10% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-09-19 16:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54% | 1.1% | 2026-09-19 16:44 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48% | 2.1% | 2026-09-19 16:25 |