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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Kilmarnock v Hearts

Inicio: 2026-09-19 16:45 UTC

Final: Kilmarnock 1–1 Hearts

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kilmarnock (Local)

Predicción 21.16%4.73momio equitativo
EV +1.80%
Ventaja +0.374%
Kelly +0.472%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.79%21.10%21.24%22.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.104.384.404.8124.39%22.81%22.73%20.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hearts (Visitante)

Predicción 55.01%1.82momio equitativo
EV -0.982%
Ventaja -0.546%
Kelly -1.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.91%55.04%54.99%56.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.611.691.701.8062.11%59.02%58.82%55.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.83%4.20momio equitativo
EV -2.79%
Ventaja -0.683%
Kelly -0.905%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.95%23.86%23.77%25.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.703.893.904.0827.03%25.71%25.64%24.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Kilmarnock (Local): 21.16%; Hearts (Visitante): 55.01%; Empate: 23.83%. Para Kilmarnock (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.73. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.81, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.80%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯4.81I 20.79%NM 19.96%EV +1.80%E +0.374%K +0.472%G +0.008%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.81%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.24%EV -5.65%E -1.43%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-19 16:44
Pinnacle🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.30%EV +0.529%E +0.111%K +0.141%G +0.001%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.06%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.63%EV -2.79%E -0.683%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-19 16:40
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV +0.529%E +0.111%K +0.141%G +0.001%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -7.03%E -4.16%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 16:25
FanDuel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -0.530%E -0.113%K -0.143%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.37%EV -9.23%E -5.60%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 16:23
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -2.65%E -0.575%K -0.735%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -7.03%E -4.16%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 16:24
Marathon Bet🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.47%EV -3.70%E -0.814%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.77%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.76%EV -6.60%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 16:44
Coolbet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 16:34
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 16:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-19 16:30
betano_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 16:28
Bet Victor🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -5.89%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 07:30
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 16:25
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -9.46%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-19 16:25
Bovada🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.55%EV -8.68%E -5.23%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.27%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-19 16:33
Tipico (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -4.76%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -10.88%E -6.72%K -17.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 16:34
BetUS🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -5.82%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.15%EV -7.03%E -4.16%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 16:39
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 16:35
LowVig.ag🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.89%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 16:44
DraftKings🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.06%EV -5.93%E -3.47%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 16:24
BetOnline.ag🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.59%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 16:39
ATG (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 16:44
NordicBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -8.27%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 16:30
Betsson🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -8.27%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 16:30
Bet Right🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 16:34
Virgin Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.58%E -4.51%K -11.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 16:44
LiveScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.58%E -4.51%K -11.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 16:44
PlayUp🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -6.88%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -10.65%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-19 16:30
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -7.94%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.31%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:30
betPARX🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -7.94%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.02%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -8.27%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 15:49
LeoVegas🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.89%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 16:44
William Hill🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 16:30
888sport🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 16:30
Betway🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV -8.36%E -1.93%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.46%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -4.69%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-19 16:44
Grosvenor🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:44
Casumo🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:44
Unibet (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:44
Unibet (NL)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:44
Unibet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:44
TABtouch🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.00%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:44
BetRivers🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.16%EV -10.05%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.85%EV -9.78%E -5.97%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -10.65%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-19 15:50
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -0.982%E -0.546%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -3.73%E -2.13%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 16:19
Neds🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -3.73%E -2.13%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -3.73%E -2.13%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.08%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 16:19
Codere (IT)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.65%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.11%EV -7.58%E -4.51%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.65%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-19 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -9.23%E -5.60%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -9.46%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-19 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -9.78%E -5.97%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -9.46%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-19 16:44
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -10.88%E -6.72%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -9.46%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-19 16:44
Unibet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -11.11%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.99%EV -11.43%E -7.10%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-19 16:30
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -13.23%E -3.23%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.13%EV -4.28%E -2.46%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -9.46%E -2.49%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-19 16:19
NetBet (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -13.23%E -3.23%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.40%EV -10.33%E -6.34%K -16.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -11.84%E -3.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-19 16:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎5.00I 20.00%NM 20.00%1.78I 56.18%NM 56.19%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.81%-0.0%2026-09-19 16:40
Smarkets◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.32%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.74%0.3%2026-09-19 16:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.90I 20.41%NM 20.26%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-09-19 16:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.90I 20.41%NM 20.26%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-09-19 16:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%1.1%2026-09-19 16:44
Kalshi◎4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-09-19 16:25