Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 8.01
assuming max odds 1.40
assuming max odds 5.58
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kilmarnock (Local): 12.73%; Celtic (Visit): 69.21%; Draw: 18.06%. For Kilmarnock (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.86. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.95%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.01I 12.48%NM 11.98%EV +1.95%E +0.244%K +0.278%G +0.005% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -5.18%E -3.78%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 5.33I 18.76%NM 18.00%EV -3.73%E -0.699%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV +1.82%E +0.228%K +0.261%G +0.005% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -0.655%E -0.119%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 12:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV +1.82%E +0.228%K +0.261%G +0.005% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +1.82%E +0.228%K +0.261%G +0.005% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.655%E -0.119%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +1.82%E +0.228%K +0.261%G +0.005% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 12:08 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +1.82%E +0.228%K +0.261%G +0.005% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 12:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.08%EV +0.551%E +0.070%K +0.080%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.65%EV -3.80%E -2.73%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.28%EV -10.59%E -2.14%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 04:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.08%EV +0.551%E +0.070%K +0.080%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.65%EV -3.80%E -2.73%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.28%EV -10.59%E -2.14%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 04:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -0.722%E -0.093%K -0.106%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.51%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.73%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 12:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.17%EV -1.36%E -0.175%K -0.201%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.86%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.71I 12.97%NM 12.49%EV -1.87%E -0.242%K -0.278%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.26%EV -5.18%E -3.78%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 5.58I 17.92%NM 17.25%EV +0.790%E +0.142%K +0.173%G +0.001% | 3.9% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.09%EV -1.99%E -0.259%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.00%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.90%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.74%EV -7.26%E -5.42%K -21.35%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.74%EV -7.26%E -5.42%K -21.35%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 12:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -4.27%E -0.805%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 11:28 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -7.26%E -5.42%K -21.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.77%EV -7.72%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.10%EV -4.49%E -3.25%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 02:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.80%E -2.73%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 02:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -0.655%E -0.119%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 12:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 12:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -0.655%E -0.119%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.30%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-09 12:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.30%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-09 12:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.30%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-09 12:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.30%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-09 12:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.17%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 12:13 |
| BetUS🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.17%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 12:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 12:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.59%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-09 12:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.25%EV -14.09%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.73%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -15.10%E -3.21%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.19%EV -14.09%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.45%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.19%EV -14.09%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.45%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.19%EV -14.09%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.45%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.07%EV -14.09%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 68.92%EV -11.41%E -8.92%K -40.76%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.00%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.48%EV -14.72%E -2.20%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.45%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-09 12:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.75%EV -16.00%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.73%EV -7.26%E -5.42%K -21.35%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.52%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-09 07:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -17.27%E -2.66%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -3.11%E -2.22%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-06 16:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -17.27%E -2.66%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -3.11%E -2.22%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 04:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -17.27%E -2.66%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -3.11%E -2.22%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 09:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -17.27%E -2.66%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-09 02:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -18.54%E -2.90%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -3.11%E -2.22%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-06 16:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -18.54%E -2.90%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -3.11%E -2.22%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-06 16:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.08% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.73% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.19% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 12:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.30% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.55% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15% | 0.5% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.30% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.55% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15% | 0.5% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.30% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.55% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15% | 0.5% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.30% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.55% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15% | 0.5% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.89% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.26% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.85% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 12:20 |