Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Kilmarnock v Celtic

Início: 2026-08-09 12:30 UTC

Final: Kilmarnock 1–5 Celtic

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

54 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Kilmarnock (Local)

Previsão 12.73%7.86odd justa
EV +1.95%
Vantagem +0.244%
Kelly +0.278%
Crescimento +0.005%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.01

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.71%12.78%12.59%14.70%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.407.187.008.0115.63%13.92%14.29%12.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Celtic (Visitante)

Previsão 69.21%1.44odd justa
EV -3.11%
Vantagem -2.22%
Kelly -7.77%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
66.87%69.12%69.41%71.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.281.351.351.4078.13%74.08%74.07%71.43%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 18.06%5.54odd justa
EV +0.790%
Vantagem +0.142%
Kelly +0.173%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.58

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
16.89%18.10%18.00%20.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.605.065.005.5821.74%19.77%20.00%17.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Kilmarnock (Local): 12.73%; Celtic (Visitante): 69.21%; Empate: 18.06%. Para Kilmarnock (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.86. 8 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 8.01, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.95%.

Odds das casas de apostas (54 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯8.01I 12.48%NM 11.98%EV +1.95%E +0.244%K +0.278%G +0.005%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -5.18%E -3.78%K -14.01%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.00%EV -3.73%E -0.699%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-09 12:25
Coolbet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV +1.82%E +0.228%K +0.261%G +0.005%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -0.655%E -0.119%K -0.145%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-09 12:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV +1.82%E +0.228%K +0.261%G +0.005%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 12:25
betfred_uk🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +1.82%E +0.228%K +0.261%G +0.005%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.655%E -0.119%K -0.145%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 12:25
Bet Victor🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +1.82%E +0.228%K +0.261%G +0.005%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 12:08
betano_uk🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +1.82%E +0.228%K +0.261%G +0.005%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 12:09
Betsson🎯7.90I 12.66%NM 12.08%EV +0.551%E +0.070%K +0.080%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.65%EV -3.80%E -2.73%K -9.74%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.28%EV -10.59%E -2.14%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-09 04:20
NordicBet🎯7.90I 12.66%NM 12.08%EV +0.551%E +0.070%K +0.080%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.65%EV -3.80%E -2.73%K -9.74%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.28%EV -10.59%E -2.14%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-09 04:20
Tipico (DE)🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -0.722%E -0.093%K -0.106%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.51%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.73%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 12:15
Betr (AU)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 12.17%EV -1.36%E -0.175%K -0.201%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.86%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 12:25
Pinnacle🎯7.71I 12.97%NM 12.49%EV -1.87%E -0.242%K -0.278%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.26%EV -5.18%E -3.78%K -14.01%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 17.25%EV +0.790%E +0.142%K +0.173%G +0.001%3.9%2026-08-09 12:25
Marathon Bet🎯7.70I 12.99%NM 12.09%EV -1.99%E -0.259%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.00%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.90%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 12:20
Fanatics🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 12:25
Svenska Spel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.74%EV -7.26%E -5.42%K -21.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 12:25
SportsBet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.74%EV -7.26%E -5.42%K -21.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 12:00
FanDuel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -4.27%E -0.805%K -0.992%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 11:28
Bet Right🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -7.26%E -5.42%K -21.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 12:25
Paddy Power🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -4.54%E -0.605%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 11:55
PlayUp🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.77%EV -7.72%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.10%EV -4.49%E -3.25%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 02:40
DraftKings🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.80%E -2.73%K -9.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 02:44
Betway🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -0.655%E -0.119%K -0.145%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 12:25
LowVig.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 12:10
BetOnline.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 12:10
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -0.655%E -0.119%K -0.145%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 11:55
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.30%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 12:10
William Hill🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.30%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 12:10
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.30%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 12:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.88%E -4.32%K -16.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.30%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 12:10
Bovada🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.17%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 12:13
BetUS🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.17%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 12:14
Grosvenor🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 12:20
TABtouch🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 12:20
Casumo🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 12:20
Unibet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 12:20
Unibet (NL)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 12:20
Unibet (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 12:19
betPARX🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.57%E -4.86%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 12:20
LeoVegas🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 12:25
BetRivers🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -10.90%E -1.56%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.59%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-09 12:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.25%EV -14.09%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 67.73%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -15.10%E -3.21%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-09 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.19%EV -14.09%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 67.45%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 12:20
Virgin Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.19%EV -14.09%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 67.45%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 12:25
PMU (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.19%EV -14.09%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 67.45%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 12:25
NetBet (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.07%EV -14.09%E -2.09%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 68.92%EV -11.41%E -8.92%K -40.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.00%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-09 12:25
Unibet (FR)🎯6.70I 14.93%NM 13.48%EV -14.72%E -2.20%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.45%EV -8.64%E -6.55%K -27.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 12:04
Codere (IT)🎯6.60I 15.15%NM 13.75%EV -16.00%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 67.73%EV -7.26%E -5.42%K -21.35%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.52%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 07:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -17.27%E -2.66%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -3.11%E -2.22%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 16:50
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -17.27%E -2.66%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -3.11%E -2.22%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 04:05
BetMGM🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -17.27%E -2.66%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -3.11%E -2.22%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 09:40
BoyleSports🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -17.27%E -2.66%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -7.95%E -5.98%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 02:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -18.54%E -2.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -3.11%E -2.22%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 16:49
Neds🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -18.54%E -2.90%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -3.11%E -2.22%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -6.07%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 16:50
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets◎9.00I 11.11%NM 11.08%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.73%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.19%0.3%2026-08-09 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.30%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.55%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%0.5%2026-08-09 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.30%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.55%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%0.5%2026-08-09 12:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.30%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.55%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%0.5%2026-08-09 12:20
Matchbook◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.30%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.55%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%0.5%2026-08-09 12:20
Kalshi◎8.33I 12.00%NM 11.89%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.26%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.85%1.0%2026-08-09 12:20