Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kilmarnock v Celtic

2026-08-09 12:30 UTC — Premiership - Scotland

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kilmarnock (Local)

Predicción 14.20%7.04momio equitativo
EV +6.48%
Ventaja +0.864%
Kelly +0.997%
Crecimiento +0.065%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.24%14.03%14.27%15.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.006.596.507.5016.67%15.16%15.38%13.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Celtic (Visitante)

Predicción 66.90%1.49momio equitativo
EV -4.34%
Ventaja -3.03%
Kelly -10.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.80%66.97%66.91%69.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.331.391.401.4375.19%71.80%71.43%69.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 18.91%5.29momio equitativo
EV -0.743%
Ventaja -0.142%
Kelly -0.175%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.18%19.01%18.82%20.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.504.834.805.2522.22%20.70%20.83%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Kilmarnock (Local): 14.20%; Celtic (Visitante): 66.90%; Empate: 18.91%. Para Kilmarnock (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 7.04. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 7.50, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +6.48%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV +6.48%E +0.864%K +0.997%G +0.065%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -11.03%E -8.29%K -33.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -7.36%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-04 22:54
Betsson7.40I 13.51%NM 12.90%EV +5.06%E +0.684%K +0.791%G +0.040%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.78%EV -4.34%E -3.03%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.32%EV -11.14%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 18:09
NordicBet7.40I 13.51%NM 12.90%EV +5.06%E +0.684%K +0.791%G +0.040%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.78%EV -4.34%E -3.03%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.32%EV -11.14%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 18:10
Marathon Bet7.30I 13.70%NM 12.75%EV +3.64%E +0.499%K +0.578%G +0.021%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.44%EV -9.02%E -6.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.80%EV -6.41%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-04 18:10
1xBet7.27I 13.76%NM 12.86%EV +3.22%E +0.442%K +0.513%G +0.016%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.25%EV -8.35%E -6.10%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.89%EV -6.41%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 18:14
Coolbet7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -0.617%E -0.088%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -0.743%E -0.142%K -0.175%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 18:19
betfred_uk7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.617%E -0.088%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 04:49
Bet Victor7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -0.617%E -0.088%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -9.02%E -6.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -9.25%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-04 09:33
betano_uk7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -0.617%E -0.088%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -9.02%E -6.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -9.25%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-04 09:34
Svenska Spel6.75I 14.81%NM 14.09%EV -4.17%E -0.617%K -0.725%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.50%EV -4.34%E -3.03%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -7.36%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 08:09
ATG (SE)6.75I 14.81%NM 14.09%EV -4.17%E -0.617%K -0.725%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.50%EV -4.34%E -3.03%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -7.36%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 08:14
PointsBet (AU)6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -4.17%E -0.617%K -0.725%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 18:19
Betr (AU)6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -4.17%E -0.617%K -0.725%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 18:23
PlayUp6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -4.17%E -0.617%K -0.725%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -14.92%E -3.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-04 18:10
Pinnacle6.64I 15.06%NM 14.27%EV -5.73%E -0.863%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.22%EV -5.68%E -4.03%K -13.84%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.51%EV -3.20%E -0.625%K -0.777%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 18:20
Unibet6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.04%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -9.25%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 08:10
Unibet (NL)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.04%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -9.25%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 08:10
Unibet (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.04%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -9.25%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 08:14
Ladbrokes (AU)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 04:44
Neds6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 04:44
Fanatics6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 08:39
Ladbrokes (UK)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 04:49
Coral6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 18:20
DraftKings6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.03%EV -7.01%E -5.05%K -17.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-04 20:34
Grosvenor6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.06%EV -5.68%E -4.03%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -10.20%E -2.15%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-04 08:14
TABtouch6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.06%EV -5.68%E -4.03%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -10.20%E -2.15%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-04 08:15
Casumo6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.06%EV -5.68%E -4.03%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -10.20%E -2.15%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-04 08:09
betPARX6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.06%EV -5.68%E -4.03%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -10.20%E -2.15%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-04 08:15
Bet Right6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -7.68%E -5.57%K -20.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-04 18:19
Unibet (UK)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -10.20%E -2.15%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-04 21:00
BetRivers6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -11.14%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-04 08:10
888sport6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -13.03%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-04 06:34
William Hill6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -13.03%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-04 06:40
888sport (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -13.03%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-04 06:34
Mr Green (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.72%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -13.03%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-04 06:34
LeoVegas (SE)6.40I 15.63%NM 14.42%EV -9.14%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.94%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.64%EV -11.14%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-04 08:14
LowVig.ag6.40I 15.63%NM 14.33%EV -9.14%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.95%EV -8.35%E -6.10%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.72%EV -7.36%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-04 19:29
BetOnline.ag6.40I 15.63%NM 14.33%EV -9.14%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.95%EV -8.35%E -6.10%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.72%EV -7.36%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-04 19:29
LiveScore Bet6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -9.14%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.98%EV -7.68%E -5.57%K -20.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -13.03%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-04 08:09
Virgin Bet6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -9.14%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.98%EV -7.68%E -5.57%K -20.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -13.03%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-04 08:09
PMU (FR)6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -9.14%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.98%EV -7.68%E -5.57%K -20.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -13.03%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-04 08:10
BetMGM6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -11.27%E -1.80%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-04 18:15
Bovada6.25I 16.00%NM 14.70%EV -11.27%E -1.80%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.56%EV -7.68%E -5.57%K -20.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -7.36%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-04 18:18
Codere (IT)6.20I 16.13%NM 14.68%EV -11.98%E -1.93%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.95%EV -7.68%E -5.57%K -20.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -11.14%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-04 04:49
Unibet (FR)6.20I 16.13%NM 14.35%EV -11.98%E -1.93%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.91%EV -11.03%E -8.29%K -33.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.74%EV -10.20%E -2.15%K -2.72%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-04 04:50
Betway6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -14.81%E -2.47%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.68%E -5.57%K -20.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -5.47%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-04 18:09
LeoVegas6.00I 16.67%NM 15.01%EV -14.81%E -2.47%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.23%EV -9.02%E -6.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.76%EV -9.25%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-04 18:45
BoyleSports6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -14.81%E -2.47%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -9.02%E -6.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -10.20%E -2.15%K -2.72%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-04 06:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi7.14I 14.01%NM 13.60%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.93%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.47%2.9%2026-08-05 00:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.40I 13.51%NM 13.10%1.40I 71.43%NM 69.26%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%3.1%2026-08-04 22:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.40I 13.51%NM 13.10%1.40I 71.43%NM 69.26%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%3.1%2026-08-04 22:30
Smarkets7.40I 13.51%NM 13.10%1.40I 71.43%NM 69.26%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%3.1%2026-08-04 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)7.40I 13.51%NM 13.10%1.40I 71.43%NM 69.26%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%3.1%2026-08-04 22:30