Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celtic v Falkirk F.C.

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:00 UTC

Final: Celtic 2–1 Falkirk F.C.

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celtic (Local)

Prediction 75.11%1.33fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -10.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.20%75.09%75.03%77.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.231.241.2985.47%81.28%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Falkirk F.C. (Visit)

Prediction 9.53%10.50fair odd
EV +9.57%
Edge +0.832%
Kelly +0.912%
Growth +0.087%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.10%9.56%9.50%10.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.8010.0010.0011.5011.36%10.00%10.00%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.36%6.51fair odd
EV -0.147%
Edge -0.023%
Kelly -0.027%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.26%15.35%15.47%17.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.256.086.006.5019.05%16.44%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celtic (Local): 75.11%; Falkirk F.C. (Visit): 9.53%; Draw: 15.36%. For Falkirk F.C. (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.50. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.79%EV -3.86%E -3.02%K -13.78%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.21%EV +9.57%E +0.832%K +0.912%G +0.087%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -19.35%E -3.69%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 13:55
SportsBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.99%EV -9.12%E -7.53%K -43.41%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +9.57%E +0.832%K +0.912%G +0.087%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -3.99%E -0.638%K -0.759%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 13:20
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +4.81%E +0.437%K +0.481%G +0.023%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 13:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +4.81%E +0.437%K +0.481%G +0.023%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -0.147%E -0.023%K -0.027%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +4.81%E +0.437%K +0.481%G +0.023%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -0.147%E -0.023%K -0.027%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 13:55
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -9.87%E -8.22%K -49.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV +4.81%E +0.437%K +0.481%G +0.023%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -0.147%E -0.023%K -0.027%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 13:20
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.87%E -8.22%K -49.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +4.81%E +0.437%K +0.481%G +0.023%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 13:20
1xBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.59%EV -3.11%E -2.41%K -10.72%G +0.000%10.70I 9.35%NM 8.99%EV +1.95%E +0.182%K +0.201%G +0.004%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.42%EV -9.98%E -1.70%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-29 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.08%EV -5.36%E -4.26%K -20.62%G +0.000%10.61I 9.43%NM 9.03%EV +1.09%E +0.103%K +0.114%G +0.001%6.44I 15.53%NM 14.89%EV -1.07%E -0.166%K -0.196%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 13:45
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.42%EV -4.61%E -3.63%K -17.08%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.58%EV -12.44%E -2.18%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 13:40
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.92%EV -7.61%E -6.19%K -33.11%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.18%EV -5.52%E -0.898%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 13:55
FanDuel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.84%EV -9.12%E -7.53%K -43.41%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -0.147%E -0.023%K -0.027%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 13:19
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -9.87%E -8.22%K -49.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -1.68%E -0.263%K -0.312%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -9.87%E -8.22%K -49.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -1.68%E -0.263%K -0.312%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 13:55
TABtouch🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -9.87%E -8.22%K -49.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -1.68%E -0.263%K -0.312%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -9.87%E -8.22%K -49.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -1.68%E -0.263%K -0.312%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 13:55
Unibet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -9.87%E -8.22%K -49.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -1.68%E -0.263%K -0.312%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 13:55
Casumo🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -9.87%E -8.22%K -49.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -1.68%E -0.263%K -0.312%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 13:55
betPARX🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -9.87%E -8.22%K -49.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -1.68%E -0.263%K -0.312%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.46%EV -9.87%E -8.22%K -49.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV +0.044%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV -4.76%E -0.767%K -0.914%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 13:45
Coolbet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.32%EV -5.36%E -4.26%K -20.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.19%EV -3.99%E -0.638%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 13:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 13:25
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 13:45
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.67%E -2.03%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 13:40
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -15.51%E -2.82%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 13:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.37%EV -10.62%E -8.92%K -55.89%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.54%EV -3.99%E -0.638%K -0.759%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 13:55
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.10%EV -10.62%E -8.92%K -55.89%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.06%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.85%EV -6.29%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.25%EV -11.37%E -9.64%K -63.17%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.75%EV -6.29%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -12.12%E -10.36%K -71.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-29 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -12.12%E -10.36%K -71.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -4.72%E -0.472%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-29 13:55
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.09%EV -3.86%E -3.02%K -13.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -9.48%E -0.998%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.79%EV -0.147%E -0.023%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-29 13:50
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -6.86%E -5.54%K -28.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -9.48%E -0.998%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -0.147%E -0.023%K -0.027%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:15
DraftKings🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.48%EV -5.36%E -4.26%K -20.62%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -9.48%E -0.998%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:25
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -9.48%E -0.998%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.00%EV -10.90%E -1.88%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.03%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -9.48%E -0.998%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -0.147%E -0.023%K -0.027%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 13:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.03%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -9.48%E -0.998%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -0.147%E -0.023%K -0.027%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 13:05
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.13%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -9.48%E -0.998%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -11.67%E -2.03%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 13:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.13%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -9.48%E -0.998%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -11.67%E -2.03%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 13:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.13%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -9.48%E -0.998%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -11.67%E -2.03%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.66%EV -5.36%E -4.26%K -20.62%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.17%EV -11.87%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.17%EV -4.76%E -0.767%K -0.914%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 13:50
Neds🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.66%EV -5.36%E -4.26%K -20.62%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.17%EV -11.87%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.17%EV -4.76%E -0.767%K -0.914%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 13:50
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.09%EV -6.86%E -5.54%K -28.60%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.93%EV -11.87%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -11.67%E -2.03%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:34
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.09%EV -6.86%E -5.54%K -28.60%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.93%EV -11.87%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -11.67%E -2.03%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:35
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.39%EV -4.61%E -3.63%K -17.08%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -14.25%E -1.58%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -3.99%E -0.638%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -14.25%E -1.58%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 13:50
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -14.25%E -1.58%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 13:09
LeoVegas🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -7.61%E -6.19%K -33.11%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -14.25%E -1.58%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -7.83%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.11%E -4.89%K -24.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -14.25%E -1.58%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.51%E -2.82%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 13:43
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.46%EV -9.12%E -7.53%K -43.41%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.01%EV -14.25%E -1.58%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -10.90%E -1.88%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-29 13:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 74.53%EV -11.37%E -9.64%K -63.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.77%EV -14.25%E -1.58%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.70%EV -13.97%E -2.50%K -3.04%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-29 13:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.97%EV -7.61%E -6.19%K -33.11%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.34%EV -16.15%E -1.84%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.69%EV -10.90%E -1.88%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.40%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.38%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.4%2026-08-29 13:55
Matchbook1.27I 78.74%NM 78.40%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.38%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.4%2026-08-29 13:55
Smarkets1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Kalshi1.25I 80.00%NM 79.21%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.93%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.87%1.0%2026-08-29 13:45