Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celtic v Aberdeen

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 18:46 UTC

Final: Celtic 3–0 Aberdeen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celtic (Local)

Prediction 76.11%1.31fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -3.89%
Kelly -19.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.19%76.08%76.06%78.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.211.221.2586.96%82.38%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aberdeen (Visit)

Prediction 8.81%11.35fair odd
EV +10.33%
Edge +0.825%
Kelly +0.897%
Growth +0.093%

assuming max odds 12.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.63%8.84%8.67%10.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.7111.0012.5211.11%9.34%9.09%7.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.08%6.63fair odd
EV +5.09%
Edge +0.731%
Kelly +0.853%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 6.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.82%15.09%15.27%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.276.336.9718.18%15.95%15.81%14.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celtic (Local): 76.11%; Aberdeen (Visit): 8.81%; Draw: 15.08%. For Aberdeen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.35. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.45%G +0.000%12.52I 7.99%NM 7.63%EV +10.33%E +0.825%K +0.897%G +0.093%5.99I 16.69%NM 15.95%EV -9.68%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -8.67%E -7.22%K -43.34%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +5.75%E +0.479%K +0.522%G +0.030%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV +1.77%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005%6.5%2026-09-02 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -8.67%E -7.22%K -43.34%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +5.75%E +0.479%K +0.522%G +0.030%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV +1.77%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005%6.5%2026-09-02 18:05
SportsBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.40%EV -8.67%E -7.22%K -43.34%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV +5.75%E +0.479%K +0.522%G +0.030%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -5.76%E -0.922%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-02 18:30
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.67%E -7.22%K -43.34%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +5.75%E +0.479%K +0.522%G +0.030%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-02 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.13%EV -10.19%E -8.64%K -56.61%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +5.75%E +0.479%K +0.522%G +0.030%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 18:25
Unibet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -9.43%E -7.92%K -49.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +1.34%E +0.117%K +0.128%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:10
Grosvenor🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -9.43%E -7.92%K -49.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +1.34%E +0.117%K +0.128%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:10
Casumo🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -9.43%E -7.92%K -49.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +1.34%E +0.117%K +0.128%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -9.43%E -7.92%K -49.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +1.34%E +0.117%K +0.128%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -9.43%E -7.92%K -49.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +1.34%E +0.117%K +0.128%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:10
TABtouch🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -9.43%E -7.92%K -49.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +1.34%E +0.117%K +0.128%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:10
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -9.43%E -7.92%K -49.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +1.34%E +0.117%K +0.128%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:10
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.28%EV -6.38%E -5.19%K -27.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.08%EV +1.77%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005%5.2%2026-09-02 18:20
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.45%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 18:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.86%EV -6.38%E -5.19%K -27.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 18:15
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.62%E -4.54%K -23.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:20
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:15
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:20
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 18:18
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -5.62%E -4.54%K -23.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -13.30%E -2.31%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 18:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.46%EV -8.67%E -7.22%K -43.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.08%EV -0.487%E -0.074%K -0.087%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 17:10
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-02 18:45
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -8.67%E -7.22%K -43.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 18:10
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -8.67%E -7.22%K -43.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 18:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -10.19%E -8.64%K -56.61%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -5.76%E -0.922%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-02 18:10
BetRivers🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.31%EV -10.95%E -9.36%K -64.42%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.47%EV -5.76%E -0.922%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-02 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.46%EV -11.71%E -10.10%K -73.20%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -5.76%E -0.922%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-02 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 77.34%EV -12.47%E -10.85%K -83.16%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.58%EV -8.03%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-02 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 77.34%EV -12.47%E -10.85%K -83.16%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -3.07%E -0.279%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.58%EV -8.03%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-02 18:10
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.58%EV -5.62%E -4.54%K -23.43%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.60%EV -5.27%E -0.490%K -0.540%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -17.07%E -3.10%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:38
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.09%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.45%G +0.000%10.60I 9.43%NM 9.09%EV -6.59%E -0.622%K -0.687%G +0.000%6.97I 14.35%NM 13.82%EV +5.09%E +0.731%K +0.853%G +0.043%3.8%2026-09-02 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.18%EV -5.62%E -4.54%K -23.43%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -7.47%E -0.712%K -0.787%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.94%EV -11.80%E -2.02%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-02 18:40
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.87%EV -5.62%E -4.54%K -23.43%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -7.47%E -0.712%K -0.787%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.29%EV -14.06%E -2.47%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-02 18:40
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.28%EV -8.67%E -7.22%K -43.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.72%EV -7.47%E -0.712%K -0.787%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.01%EV -8.03%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 18:45
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.28%EV -8.67%E -7.22%K -43.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.72%EV -7.47%E -0.712%K -0.787%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.01%EV -8.03%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -6.38%E -5.19%K -27.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -11.88%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 18:35
Bet Right🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -11.88%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 18:20
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.92%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -11.88%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV -5.76%E -0.922%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.38%E -5.19%K -27.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -11.88%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.38%E -5.19%K -27.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -11.88%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 18:45
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.88%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.88%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.88%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:40
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -16.28%E -1.71%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 16:00
BetMGM🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -16.28%E -1.71%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -16.28%E -1.71%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -1.99%E -0.307%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 16:00
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -16.28%E -1.71%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-02 18:44
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.16%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.45%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.16%EV -18.49%E -2.00%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.68%EV -3.50%E -0.547%K -0.649%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 16:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.16%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.45%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.16%EV -18.49%E -2.00%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.68%EV -3.50%E -0.547%K -0.649%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 16:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.40%EV -8.67%E -7.22%K -43.34%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.65%EV -18.49%E -2.00%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.94%EV -15.56%E -2.78%K -3.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-02 18:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.85%EV -7.15%E -5.86%K -32.48%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.93%EV -18.93%E -2.06%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-02 18:40
LeoVegas🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.19%EV -5.62%E -4.54%K -23.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -20.69%E -2.30%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -11.04%E -1.87%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-02 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.28%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62%0.6%2026-09-02 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.07%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.58%0.9%2026-09-02 18:40
Matchbook1.25I 80.00%NM 79.25%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.15%1.0%2026-09-02 18:45
Smarkets1.26I 79.37%NM 78.60%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.83%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.56%1.0%2026-09-02 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.41%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.06%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.53%1.2%2026-09-02 18:45
Kalshi1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.84%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.69%2.3%2026-09-02 18:45