Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Gijón v Sabadell FC

2026-08-17 17:00 UTC — La Liga 2 - Spain

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Gijón (Local)

Prediction 51.82%1.93fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -4.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.09%51.85%51.80%52.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.781.771.8558.14%56.16%56.34%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sabadell FC (Visit)

Prediction 20.56%4.86fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -0.713%
Kelly -0.905%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.57%20.50%20.57%21.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.364.434.7025.32%22.96%22.60%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.62%3.62fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.316%
Kelly -0.439%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.82%27.65%27.63%29.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.273.303.5832.79%30.55%30.30%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sporting Gijón (Local): 51.82%; Sabadell FC (Visit): 20.56%; Draw: 27.62%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.58, with an expected value of -1.13%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -4.13%E -2.23%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -10.96%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.63%E -3.63%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-03 17:25
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -4.13%E -2.23%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -13.63%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -14.39%E -4.64%K -6.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-03 17:25
1xBet1.84I 54.35%NM 52.18%EV -4.65%E -2.53%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.01%EV -6.02%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.82%EV -1.13%E -0.316%K -0.439%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-03 19:19
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -5.17%E -2.83%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 18:19
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.79%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -5.41%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-03 19:24
Pinnacle1.81I 55.25%NM 52.36%EV -6.21%E -3.43%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.25%EV -3.76%E -0.804%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.39%EV -4.45%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 19:24
Marathon Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.18%EV -7.24%E -4.05%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -8.49%E -1.91%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.84%EV -3.89%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 19:19
SportsBet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.90%EV -7.76%E -4.36%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-03 19:24
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 51.82%EV -8.28%E -4.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -8.86%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-03 19:24
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.56%EV -9.32%E -5.32%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -3.35%E -0.713%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.86%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 17:24
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -9.32%E -5.32%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -9.52%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.86%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-03 19:24
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 50.32%EV -9.83%E -5.65%K -13.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.89%EV -17.74%E -4.44%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -13.01%E -4.13%K -6.05%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-03 17:35
Betclic (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.76%EV -10.35%E -5.98%K -14.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%EV -13.63%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -14.39%E -4.64%K -6.85%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-03 17:33
Unibet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.27%EV -10.35%E -5.98%K -14.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.21%EV -15.69%E -3.83%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.52%EV -15.77%E -5.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-03 17:34
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 50.24%EV -10.35%E -5.98%K -14.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.73%EV -17.74%E -4.44%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.04%EV -14.39%E -4.64%K -6.85%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-03 19:24
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 50.24%EV -10.87%E -6.32%K -15.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.88%EV -18.77%E -4.75%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.88%EV -14.39%E -4.64%K -6.85%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-03 17:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.03%9.2%2026-08-03 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.03%9.2%2026-08-03 18:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.03%9.2%2026-08-03 18:20