Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sabadell FC v Almería

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:00 UTC

Final: Sabadell FC 1–0 Almería

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sabadell FC (Local)

Prediction 35.61%2.81fair odd
EV -0.655%
Edge -0.235%
Kelly -0.366%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.03%35.64%35.61%37.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.572.602.7942.55%38.98%38.46%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Almería (Visit)

Prediction 33.98%2.94fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.05%34.04%33.95%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.722.702.8439.22%36.83%37.04%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.41%3.29fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.357%
Kelly -0.515%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.07%30.32%30.44%31.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.013.003.2535.71%33.21%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sabadell FC (Local): 35.61%; Almería (Visit): 33.98%; Draw: 30.41%. For Sabadell FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.79, with an expected value of -0.655%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.04%EV -0.655%E -0.235%K -0.366%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.71%EV -9.61%E -3.61%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.25%EV -4.50%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 14:55
Pinnacle🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.86%EV -1.01%E -0.364%K -0.568%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.37%EV -4.18%E -1.48%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.20%E -1.33%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 14:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -3.86%E -1.43%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -11.65%E -4.48%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.42%EV -5.28%E -1.99%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -3.50%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 14:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.42%EV -5.28%E -1.99%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -3.50%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 14:35
BetAnything🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.42%EV -5.28%E -1.99%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -3.50%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 14:35
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -5.64%E -2.13%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -4.86%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.72%E -1.85%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 14:35
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.64%E -2.13%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -6.56%E -2.38%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -5.72%E -1.85%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 14:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -6.35%E -2.42%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.28%EV -7.57%E -2.78%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.27%EV -6.33%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 14:33
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -6.71%E -2.56%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.56%E -2.38%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 14:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.71%E -2.56%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.80%E -4.07%K -6.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 14:55
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.71%E -2.56%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.80%E -4.07%K -6.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 14:54
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -4.86%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -1.16%E -0.357%K -0.515%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 14:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -6.56%E -2.38%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -2.68%E -0.837%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 14:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -4.86%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.72%E -1.85%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -4.86%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.72%E -1.85%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 14:20
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -4.86%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.72%E -1.85%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 14:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -4.86%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.72%E -1.85%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -4.86%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.72%E -1.85%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -4.86%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 14:19
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.70%EV -6.90%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 14:54
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -6.56%E -2.38%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -10.28%E -3.49%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 14:35
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.88%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.88%EV -11.65%E -4.48%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 14:38
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -9.20%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.68%E -0.837%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 14:45
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.87%EV -9.20%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.63%EV -7.57%E -2.78%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.49%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 14:35
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.87%EV -9.20%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.63%EV -7.57%E -2.78%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.49%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 14:35
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -9.20%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 14:49
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -9.20%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 14:50
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.56%E -2.38%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -5.72%E -1.85%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 14:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -9.95%E -3.76%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.72%E -1.85%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 14:35
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -10.28%E -3.49%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-29 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -10.28%E -3.49%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-29 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -10.28%E -3.49%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-29 14:30
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -10.28%E -3.49%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-29 14:20
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -12.41%E -4.31%K -6.60%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-29 14:35
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -12.41%E -4.31%K -6.60%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-29 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -10.63%E -4.04%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -12.41%E -4.31%K -6.60%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-29 14:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.02%EV -11.69%E -4.72%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.71%EV -9.95%E -3.76%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.28%EV -10.28%E -3.49%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-29 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.74%EV -11.69%E -4.72%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.70%EV -10.63%E -4.04%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -11.80%E -4.07%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.74%EV -11.69%E -4.72%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.70%EV -10.63%E -4.04%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -11.80%E -4.07%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.43%EV -12.05%E -4.88%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.58%EV -8.93%E -3.33%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.99%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 14:33
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -12.76%E -5.21%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.32%EV -11.65%E -4.48%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.26%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-29 14:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.55%EV -12.76%E -5.21%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.89%EV -12.67%E -4.93%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.56%EV -13.32%E -4.68%K -7.20%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-29 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.93%EV -15.25%E -6.41%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.53%EV -13.35%E -5.24%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.54%EV -14.84%E -5.30%K -8.25%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-29 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.27%EV -16.32%E -6.95%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.05%EV -9.95%E -3.76%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -10.28%E -3.49%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-29 14:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.82I 35.46%NM 35.29%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.62%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.10%0.5%2026-08-29 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.53%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.09%0.5%2026-08-29 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.53%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.09%0.5%2026-08-29 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.02%0.7%2026-08-29 14:50
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.45%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94%1.0%2026-08-29 14:50
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.69%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.69%1.1%2026-08-29 14:45