Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Real Valladolid CF v Zaragoza

Inicio: 2026-05-09 16:30 UTC

Final: Real Valladolid CF 2–0 Zaragoza

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Real Valladolid CF (Local)

Predicción 50.19%1.99momio equitativo
EV -1.13%
Ventaja -0.575%
Kelly -1.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.11%50.17%50.18%51.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.721.861.851.9758.14%53.80%54.05%50.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Zaragoza (Visitante)

Predicción 22.48%4.45momio equitativo
EV -0.209%
Ventaja -0.047%
Kelly -0.061%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.46%22.48%22.46%24.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.974.004.4428.17%25.21%25.00%22.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.34%3.66momio equitativo
EV -2.68%
Ventaja -0.752%
Kelly -1.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.82%27.35%27.36%28.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.313.303.5634.72%30.21%30.30%28.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Real Valladolid CF (Local): 50.19%; Zaragoza (Visitante): 22.48%; Empate: 27.34%. Para Zaragoza (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.45. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.44, con un valor esperado de -0.209%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.13%E -0.575%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -14.59%E -3.84%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 15:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.13%E -0.575%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -14.59%E -3.84%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 15:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.13%E -0.575%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -14.59%E -3.84%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 15:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.13%E -0.575%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -14.59%E -3.84%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 15:39
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.13%E -0.575%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -14.59%E -3.84%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 15:40
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.34%EV -2.64%E -1.36%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -16.84%E -4.55%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 15:39
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.34%EV -2.64%E -1.36%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -16.84%E -4.55%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 15:39
betPARX🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.34%EV -2.64%E -1.36%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -16.84%E -4.55%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 15:40
TABtouch🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.34%EV -2.64%E -1.36%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -16.84%E -4.55%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.27%EV -3.14%E -1.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -16.84%E -4.55%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.07%EV -11.15%E -3.43%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 15:40
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.11%EV -3.14%E -1.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -17.96%E -4.92%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -11.15%E -3.43%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 15:39
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -4.14%E -2.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.85%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 16:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.17%EV -4.14%E -2.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -17.96%E -4.92%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-09 15:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.17%EV -4.14%E -2.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -17.96%E -4.92%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-09 15:39
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.12%EV -4.65%E -2.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -5.60%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 16:14
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.09%EV -4.65%E -2.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.08%EV -3.13%E -0.726%K -0.946%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.83%EV -6.50%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 16:24
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.11%EV -5.15%E -2.72%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.76%EV -0.209%E -0.047%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.13%EV -2.68%E -0.752%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-09 16:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -5.65%E -3.00%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -7.85%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 16:14
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -6.15%E -3.29%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -3.36%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -5.68%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 16:24
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.76%EV -6.15%E -3.29%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -10.10%E -2.52%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -5.68%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 16:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.15%E -3.29%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -10.10%E -2.52%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 16:14
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.05%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.31%EV -6.73%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 16:24
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.05%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.31%EV -6.73%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 16:24
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -5.60%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 16:19
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.10%E -2.52%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -11.15%E -3.43%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 16:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.10%E -2.52%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -11.15%E -3.43%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 16:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -12.35%E -3.17%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 16:10
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -10.10%E -2.52%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 16:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.43%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.72%EV -20.21%E -5.69%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -13.89%E -4.41%K -6.46%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-09 15:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.99%EV -7.66%E -4.16%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -3.36%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -5.68%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 16:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.99%EV -7.66%E -4.16%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -3.36%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -5.68%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 16:25
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -3.36%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:04
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.60%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 16:05
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.10%E -2.52%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 16:14
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -10.10%E -2.52%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -11.15%E -3.43%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-09 16:19
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -14.59%E -3.84%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-09 16:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -14.59%E -3.84%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-09 16:24
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -14.59%E -3.84%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-09 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -14.59%E -3.84%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-09 16:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -8.66%E -4.76%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -3.36%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -5.68%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 16:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.10%EV -8.66%E -4.76%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08%EV -11.22%E -2.84%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 16:25
Bovada🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.99%EV -9.16%E -5.06%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -3.36%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 16:24
BetAnything🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.99%EV -9.16%E -5.06%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -3.36%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 16:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -5.60%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 16:09
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -7.85%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 16:24
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -10.10%E -2.52%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-09 16:04
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -10.10%E -2.52%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -11.15%E -3.43%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-09 16:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.55%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.17%EV -13.47%E -3.50%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.28%EV -10.61%E -3.24%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-09 16:09
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -12.35%E -3.17%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-09 16:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.73%EV -11.67%E -6.63%K -15.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.34%EV -15.72%E -4.19%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -11.15%E -3.43%K -4.96%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-09 16:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 49.89%EV -12.68%E -7.28%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.55%EV -13.47%E -3.50%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.56%EV -13.89%E -4.41%K -6.46%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-09 16:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.05%EV -13.18%E -7.62%K -18.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.09%EV -19.09%E -5.30%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.86%EV -21.27%E -7.38%K -11.31%G +0.000%20.3%2026-05-09 16:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.47%EV -13.68%E -7.95%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.98%EV -11.22%E -2.84%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.56%EV -13.89%E -4.41%K -6.46%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-09 16:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.69%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.19%0.8%2026-05-09 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.69%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.19%0.8%2026-05-09 16:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.69%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.19%0.8%2026-05-09 16:25
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 51.69%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.19%0.8%2026-05-09 16:24
Smarkets1.92I 52.08%NM 51.26%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.40%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.34%1.6%2026-05-09 16:25
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.03%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-05-09 16:04