Language:English
Real Sociedad B v Burgos CF
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Real Sociedad B (Local)
Prediction 32.56%3.07fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.338%
Kelly -0.504%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.56%32.55%32.51%33.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.822.833.0438.02%35.44%35.27%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Burgos CF (Visit)
Prediction 36.52%2.74fair odd
EV +0.058%
Edge +0.021%
Kelly +0.033%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.86%36.41%36.63%38.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.482.502.7444.44%40.29%40.00%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.93%3.23fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -0.820%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.25%31.04%30.86%32.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.973.003.1538.02%33.65%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Sociedad B (Local): 32.56%; Burgos CF (Visit): 36.52%; Draw: 30.93%. For Burgos CF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.738. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.740, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.058%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.85%EV -1.03%E -0.338%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.33%EV +0.058%E +0.021%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.82%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-03 16:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -4.93%E -1.69%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -1.40%E -0.520%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -11.55%E -4.04%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -4.93%E -1.69%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -1.40%E -0.520%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -11.55%E -4.04%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-03 16:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -4.93%E -1.69%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.99%EV -3.59%E -1.36%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.46%EV -6.60%E -2.19%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-03 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -4.32%E -1.65%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -13.41%E -4.79%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 16:01 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -4.32%E -1.65%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -13.41%E -4.79%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.94%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.32%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-03 16:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -3.96%E -1.34%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-03 16:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -11.86%E -4.16%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-03 16:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-03 16:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.27%EV -5.91%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.72%EV -9.08%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-03 16:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -11.86%E -4.16%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-03 15:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-03 16:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.28%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.28%EV -13.41%E -4.79%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-03 16:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -14.95%E -5.44%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-03 16:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.69%EV -8.19%E -2.90%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.58%EV -7.98%E -3.17%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.69%EV -8.19%E -2.90%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.58%EV -7.98%E -3.17%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-03 15:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-03 15:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-03 15:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 16:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -6.24%E -2.17%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -10.31%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-03 15:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-03 16:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -10.93%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-03 15:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -14.95%E -5.44%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-03 16:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -14.95%E -5.44%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-03 15:36 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 15:36 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 15:36 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.49%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 36.92%EV -11.63%E -4.80%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.60%EV -9.70%E -3.32%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-03 16:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:36 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-03 08:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -10.31%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.31%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.13%EV -13.73%E -5.18%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.59%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.28%EV -10.31%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.19%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.21%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.60%EV -14.95%E -5.44%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-03 16:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.23%EV -13.09%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 15:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -13.09%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-03 08:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -13.09%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-03 08:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.90%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.48%EV -13.45%E -5.68%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.61%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 08:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.90%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.48%EV -13.45%E -5.68%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.61%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 08:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -14.18%E -6.04%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 15:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -14.18%E -6.04%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 15:36 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -16.01%E -6.96%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 31.56%EV -14.38%E -5.47%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 36.89%EV -17.84%E -7.93%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 31.56%EV -18.66%E -7.10%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 20.5% | 2026-05-03 16:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.12I 32.05%NM 32.03% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 32.03% | 0.1% | 2026-05-03 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 1.5% | 2026-05-03 16:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 1.5% | 2026-05-03 16:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 1.5% | 2026-05-03 16:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 1.5% | 2026-05-03 16:16 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.57% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.40% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.03% | 2.4% | 2026-05-03 16:16 |