La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Real Sociedad B v Burgos CF
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Real Sociedad B (Local)
Predicción 32.56%3.07momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.338%
Kelly -0.504%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.04
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.56%32.55%32.51%33.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.822.833.0438.02%35.44%35.27%32.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Burgos CF (Visitante)
Predicción 36.52%2.74momio equitativo
EV +0.058%
Ventaja +0.021%
Kelly +0.033%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.74
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.86%36.41%36.63%38.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.252.482.502.7444.44%40.29%40.00%36.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 30.93%3.23momio equitativo
EV -2.58%
Ventaja -0.820%
Kelly -1.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.25%31.04%30.86%32.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.973.003.1538.02%33.65%33.33%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.85%EV -1.03%E -0.338%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.33%EV +0.058%E +0.021%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.82%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-03 16:10 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -4.93%E -1.69%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -1.40%E -0.520%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -11.55%E -4.04%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -4.93%E -1.69%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -1.40%E -0.520%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -11.55%E -4.04%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-03 16:04 |
| 1xBet | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -4.93%E -1.69%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.99%EV -3.59%E -1.36%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.46%EV -6.60%E -2.19%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-03 16:20 |
| Bovada | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -4.32%E -1.65%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -13.41%E -4.79%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 16:01 |
| BetAnything | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -4.32%E -1.65%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -13.41%E -4.79%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| Coolbet | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.94%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.32%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-03 16:09 |
| DraftKings | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -3.96%E -1.34%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-03 16:20 |
| FanDuel | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -11.86%E -4.16%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-03 16:19 |
| Betway | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-03 16:25 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.27%EV -5.91%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.09%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.72%EV -9.08%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-03 16:25 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -11.86%E -4.16%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-03 15:35 |
| Bet Victor | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-03 16:24 |
| SportsBet | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.28%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.28%EV -13.41%E -4.79%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-03 16:15 |
| PlayUp | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -14.95%E -5.44%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-03 16:00 |
| Betsson | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.69%EV -8.19%E -2.90%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.58%EV -7.98%E -3.17%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| NordicBet | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.69%EV -8.19%E -2.90%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.58%EV -7.98%E -3.17%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| Fanatics | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-03 15:35 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-03 15:40 |
| theScore Bet | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-03 15:40 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 16:10 |
| betfred_uk | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -6.24%E -2.17%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -10.31%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-03 15:40 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-03 16:10 |
| William Hill | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -10.93%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-03 15:39 |
| Paddy Power | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -14.95%E -5.44%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-03 16:15 |
| Sky Bet | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -14.95%E -5.44%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-03 15:36 |
| Unibet | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 15:36 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 15:36 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.59%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.49%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 36.92%EV -11.63%E -4.80%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.60%EV -9.70%E -3.32%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-03 16:10 |
| Grosvenor | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| TABtouch | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| Casumo | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| betPARX | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 15:36 |
| BetMGM | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-03 08:19 |
| BoyleSports | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -10.31%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.31%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.13%EV -13.73%E -5.18%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.59%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.28%EV -10.31%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-03 16:05 |
| NetBet (FR) | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.19%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.21%EV -12.36%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.60%EV -14.95%E -5.44%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-03 16:25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -7.21%E -2.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.23%EV -13.09%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 15:35 |
| Neds | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -13.09%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-03 08:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -13.09%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-03 08:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.90%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.48%EV -13.45%E -5.68%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.61%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 08:20 |
| Coral | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.90%EV -12.10%E -4.48%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.48%EV -13.45%E -5.68%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.61%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 08:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -14.18%E -6.04%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 15:35 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -8.84%E -3.16%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -14.18%E -6.04%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 15:36 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -10.47%E -3.81%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -16.01%E -6.96%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-03 15:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.63I 38.02%NM 31.56%EV -14.38%E -5.47%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 36.89%EV -17.84%E -7.93%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 31.56%EV -18.66%E -7.10%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 20.5% | 2026-05-03 16:15 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 3.12I 32.05%NM 32.03% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 32.03% | 0.1% | 2026-05-03 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 1.5% | 2026-05-03 16:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 1.5% | 2026-05-03 16:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 1.5% | 2026-05-03 16:15 |
| Matchbook | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29% | 1.5% | 2026-05-03 16:16 |
| Smarkets | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.57% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.40% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.03% | 2.4% | 2026-05-03 16:16 |