Language:English
Málaga v Las Palmas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Málaga (Local)
Prediction 38.43%2.60fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.79%38.45%38.40%39.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.392.402.5344.44%41.77%41.67%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Las Palmas (Visit)
Prediction 32.20%3.11fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.551%
Kelly +0.807%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 3.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.45%31.99%32.31%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.842.823.1640.00%35.19%35.46%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.37%3.40fair odd
EV -0.133%
Edge -0.039%
Kelly -0.056%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.09%29.57%29.28%31.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.083.103.4036.36%32.42%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Málaga (Local): 38.43%; Las Palmas (Visit): 32.20%; Draw: 29.37%. For Las Palmas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.74%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.25%EV -2.77%E -1.10%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.63%EV +1.74%E +0.551%K +0.807%G +0.014% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.12%EV -8.65%E -2.78%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.66%EV -5.46%E -2.22%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.70%EV -3.41%E -1.14%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.63%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -3.41%E -1.14%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 38.76%EV -8.92%E -3.76%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -3.41%E -1.14%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -3.41%E -1.14%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -13.35%E -4.53%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -3.41%E -1.14%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -13.35%E -4.53%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -3.41%E -1.14%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.82%E -5.11%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.71%EV -7.38%E -3.06%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.20%EV -3.73%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-11 16:28 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.02%E -1.70%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.48%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.79%EV -7.00%E -2.89%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.11%EV -5.34%E -1.82%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.11%EV -13.64%E -4.64%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.98%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -6.63%E -2.29%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -0.133%E -0.039%K -0.056%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.63%E -2.29%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -6.63%E -2.29%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -14.82%E -5.11%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -6.63%E -2.29%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -14.82%E -5.11%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -6.63%E -2.29%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -14.82%E -5.11%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.69%E -1.89%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -7.27%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.69%E -1.89%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -7.27%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.69%E -1.89%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -7.27%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.69%E -1.89%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -7.27%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.69%E -1.89%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -7.27%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -8.54%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -7.27%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -7.27%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -8.24%E -2.89%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -4.54%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.92%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -8.24%E -2.89%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -7.48%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -8.24%E -2.89%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -14.82%E -5.11%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -7.00%E -2.89%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.67%EV -9.20%E -3.26%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -7.48%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -7.00%E -2.89%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.67%EV -9.20%E -3.26%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -7.48%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -4.54%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -6.61%E -2.72%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -7.48%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -6.61%E -2.72%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -7.48%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -6.61%E -2.72%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -7.48%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -6.61%E -2.72%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -7.48%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -8.54%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -8.54%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -8.54%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.85%E -3.52%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 32.22%EV -10.81%E -3.90%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 28.98%EV -9.53%E -3.09%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-11 16:28 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.60%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.46%E -4.17%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.59%EV -10.41%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.80%EV -8.54%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.71%EV -11.46%E -4.17%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -10.41%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.80%EV -8.54%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.71%EV -11.46%E -4.17%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -10.41%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.46%E -4.17%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.46%E -4.17%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-11 16:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.46%E -4.17%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.46%E -4.17%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.07%E -4.84%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -8.95%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.99%EV -10.84%E -4.67%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.64%EV -13.07%E -4.84%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.75%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.52%EV -14.03%E -5.26%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 29.73%EV -14.23%E -4.87%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-04-11 16:28 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.77%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.78%EV -14.68%E -5.54%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.45%EV -13.35%E -4.53%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 36.79%EV -13.53%E -6.01%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.11%EV -19.51%E -7.80%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.10%EV -19.23%E -6.99%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 20.8% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.02% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49% | 0.9% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.02% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49% | 0.9% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.83% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35% | 1.4% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.83% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35% | 1.4% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.68% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.68% | 1.9% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.41% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.77% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.82% | 4.0% | 2026-04-11 16:30 |